Elsa Kania, Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, CNAS
“Consistent with its asymmetric approach to military modernization, the PLA could leverage AI to target perceived weaknesses in U.S. ways of warfare. For instance, the PLA has concentrated on advancing integrated network-electronic warfare to target U.S. battle networks, and the capability to leverage AI, whether in enabling cognitive electronic warfare or autonomous cyber operations, could further enhance these capabilities. The PLA recognizes the potential advantages of swarms to saturate the defenses of high-value U.S. weapons platforms, such as fighter jets or aircraft carriers, even depicting such a scenario in its Military Museum in Beijing. To offset current U.S. dominance in the undersea domain, the PLA is also developing autonomous underwater vehicles and reportedly planning to introduce ‘AI-augmented brainpower’ into its nuclear submarines to achieve an advantage. At present, the PLA’s capabilities for information support remain a limitation on its capacity to project power. However, the introduction of AI to enhance intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) could increase the efficiency of these capabilities. In addition, the PLA appears to be incorporating AI technologies into its next-generation missiles and likely also missile defenses, seeking to enhance their precision and lethality. It remains to be seen whether the PLA may incorporate AI in support of its nuclear systems, which would raise questions about the potential impact on nuclear and strategic stability.”
Response: Since 2014, the U.S. military has already begun its Third Offset strategy by seeking to work more closely with U.S. tech giants in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, and to quickly acquire cutting-edge technology for military and intelligence purposes. And while China may have certain societal and organization advantages to enable their quick development of AI, it is possible these could leave them open to countermeasures in the long-term.
- One of the potential organizational inhibitions of the U.S. incorporating advanced AI into its own military and intelligence systems surround requirements of justifying actions – particularly lethal action – within a democracy. For most AI and machine learning systems, how they come to the conclusions that they do remains a “black box” and therefore developing “explainable” AI so that decision-making can be trusted is important. China is not necessarily held back by the same constraints to justify their actions externally.
- In the long-term, however, this could open China up to countermeasures against their AI such as data manipulation or corruption or the modification of its protocols. Without the societal incentive to peer into AI decision-making and examine the path it took to its conclusions, it would be difficult to detect when the U.S. might be employing these countermeasures that could lead Chinese military commanders and systems astray.
Elsa Kania, Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, CNAS
“The U.S. military must recognize the PLA’s emergence as a true peer competitor and reevaluate the nature of U.S.-China military and technological competition. As China seeks to become a scientific superpower to rival the U.S., this race to innovate is emerging as a new frontier of strategic competition. In recent history, the U.S. has possessed clear, often uncontested military-technical advantage, but it may not be feasible to achieve a similar edge in AI, given China’s rise and the rapid diffusion of these technologies. Consequently, U.S. military advantage might be best assured through leveraging perhaps more enduring advances in the human and organizational dimensions of innovation in which the Chinese military may struggle.”
Anticipation: The strategic race for AI dominance between the U.S. and China is only beginning and it remains uncertain who will lead the world in this new technology. U.S. tech giants such as Alphabet, Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft have remained at the forefront AI development, despite Chinese advancements, and will continue to innovate using their unique multinational positions. But China will look expand its industry to facilitate AI innovation along its One Belt, One Road trade initiative.
William Carter, Deputy Director, Technology Policy Program, CSIS
“If you are talking about access to data, U.S. companies are in a better position than China’s because of their global footprint and also as a result of that global footprint, they have information on a wider and more diverse array of people. And ultimately it is studying the similiarities and differences across heterogenous groups in a large dataset where you can get the most value for AI. Chinese companies have data on Chinese people. They do not have a large international footprint, they do not have a lot of foreign customers. U.S. companies have massive datasets on billions of users around the world. That is a strength.”
Elsa Kania, Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, CNAS
“As AI catalyzes a fourth industrial revolution, China intends to lead it, leveraging AI to enhance its economic dynamism and military capabilities alike. As China builds a vibrant digital economy, the commercial applications of AI and big data could transform the Chinese economy and society, from healthcare to self-driving cars. Pursuant to the One Belt, One Road strategy, there is a new focus on the digital Silk Road, through which China will seek to leverage the advantages of sharing big data and enhancing digital connectivity, while advancing international scientific cooperation in AI. As an AI power and first mover, China also intends to lead in the formulation of technical standards and mechanisms for global governance of AI, perhaps reinforcing its own interests and advantages in the process.”
