News on China's scientific and technological development.

Whats written above can apply to highly urbanized countries, not completely to developing countries with urbanization rate of 60% or below... There must be appropriate balance of high end/low end/machine work that follows current rate of country`s developement and urbanization.
Apply that to India now, and a billion people would never have a chance to lift up their living conditions step by step and will permanently remain in rural environment without a chance to move out.
Somebody on some thread from some other forum had an interesting thoughts of maintaining some volume of urban villages in/near major cities in China for some longer time giving an opportunity to seasonal workers to keep their low end jobs, coz otherwise they couldnt afford to rent any other accommodation and would be forced to back to their villages...
Dont forget that 40% of Chinese rural population (some 560 million) are still out of reach of any higher education unless their parents work hard for their children, or if some smaller percentage of super talented kids get some kind of schoolarship (yes education is free on the paper, but not really free in real life).
Its all about appropriate balance for current conditions

9dashline said:

Advances in AI will make this pretty much a moot point....

China will hit AGI way before America births a generation of super smart citizens and wait 25 years for them to become full adults

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Don't put all your eggs in one basket, if your scenario is the case then China pursuing embryo selection, gene editing, etc. shouldn't be an issue as AGI would just solve any potential problems that people irrationally fear whenever the word 'gene' is brought up instantaneously anyway.

Redundancy is good. If AGI ends up being 200 years off then China ends up being at a severe disadvantage if they do actually use that tech and China doesn't. Not that I think they will necessarily, but being aware of the different potentialities is always good, and even if the Americans don't use it, who says I want to be on an even playing field with them anyway.

sinophilia said:

Don't put all your eggs in one basket, if your scenario is the case then China pursuing embryo selection, gene editing, etc. shouldn't be an issue as AGI would just solve any potential problems that people irrationally fear whenever the word 'gene' is brought up instantaneously anyway.

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Im pretty sure all superpowers already secretly experimenting with this in small scale underground already...

Some have said the mRna vax is to lay the groundwork foundation for US to have option to deploy it in mass at moments notice if needed... See movie Bourne Legacy....

A while back they claimed China was creating supersoldiers... Based on US MO of projection, Im 99.999% sure the US already did it

AF-1 said:

Whats written above can apply to highly urbanized countries, not completely to developing countries with urbanization rate of 60% or below... There must be appropriate balance of high end/low end/machine work that follows current rate of country`s developement and urbanization.
Apply that to India now, and a billion people would never have a chance to lift up their living conditions step by step and will permanently remain in rural environment without a chance to move out.
Somebody on some thread from some other forum had an interesting thoughts of maintaining some volume of urban villages in/near major cities in China for some longer time giving an opportunity to seasonal workers to keep their low end jobs, coz otherwise they couldnt afford to rent any other accommodation and would be forced to back to their villages...
Dont forget that 40% of Chinese rural population (some 560 million) are still out of reach of any higher education unless their parents work hard for their children, or if some smaller percentage of super talented kids get some kind of schoolarship (yes education is free on the paper, but not really free in real life).
Its all about appropriate balance for current conditions

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The places that are rural and backwards don't have high degrees of automation and increasing the efficiency of modern cities increases the resources that the government has to invest horizontally and pull those village up to speed. It is very inefficient to rely on the local population to basically slowly evolve into modern standards, by working hard at low income blue collar jobs and much faster to simply make mass invesments to pull them up almost overnight. Almost as slow is hoping that these villagers get jobs in the cities and contribute back when most of them just move into the cities and give a hair back once in a while. Another issue is the desire to modernize as many of them backwards places are very cultural and wish to preserve the old way of life.

Higher education is not out of reach for 40% of Chinese people and you don't need to be super talented to win scholarships. China's policy is that if you wish to learn and aren't stupid, the government will take care of you. You can have no parents, no extraordinary promise, and education will still be available to you from the CCP on a need-based scholarship. As a matter of fact, these scholarship programs are so widespread in China that I know people who have several scholarships that they don't need and don't even want. China's investment in education is far more profound than you imagine.

And of course it is all about balance. Your example of India's current situation suddenly being warped into a high tech society with a billion people lost has nothing to do with China and likely cannot even happen anywhere in the real world. China's economy is modernizing; machinization is advancing; China's GDP per capita is growing; Chinese poverty is declining; Chinese urbanization rising and inequality has dropped since industrialization (not counting old school communist times when everybody was equal cus they all had nothing). China's current rate of machinization coupled with China's deeply seated cultural pursuit of education is the correct way moving forward.

Xi Jinping stresses need for China to expand its talent pool, attract science and tech professionals​

China is “more eager than any period in its history” for professional talents, President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday at a high-level meeting attended by the top echelon of the Chinese Communist Party leadership.

During a two-day conference in Beijing on the development of skills, Xi stressed the need for officials at all levels to improve the country’s ability to vastly expand its talent pool and attract foreign professionals to work in China, saying this was key to the country’s technological self-reliance and national rejuvenation.

“At the end of the day, the country’s overall competitiveness is the competitiveness of its skilled personnel … National development depends on talent, and national rejuvenation depends on talent,” Xi was quoted as saying as he described how China can win amid global competition.

AF-1 said:

Making more and more things unmanned is actually highway to economic collaps... It is happening already, fewer and fewer young people can find a job, and lack of jobs making people leaving the cities and back to villages... Fewer people with salary, who can afford to buy some goods, means lowering the market, lowering the economy, heading to recession...
You just make everything unmanned, so ask machines to buy your products in the future, not men, coz men are increasingly unwanted in the future lol.

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If the robots do, say, half the jobs, the solution is for everyone to work half the hours.

This is unlikely to happen in a hypercapitalist American economy, as companies would find it more efficient to employ half the number of people full-time and then fire the rest -- and let the latter starve. So the oncoming robot revolution is a serious concern for Americans.

However, China is socialist. If robots work half the hours, everyone can still be employed if each works only half as much as before. People could still be paid the same; the robots will be making so much wealth that this will be possible. Companies might be reluctant to let their employees work only four hours a day, but a socialist government should have little trouble "encouraging" the sharing of work.

So for China at least, I am not too worried about the robot revolution.

And what about current labour in China, working mostly 12 hours, 6 days per week???
I have a coleague architect in China, he often stay overnight in the office to sleep coz he finish work so late and is not reasonable to back home to sleep...
I highly doubt companies will reduce human labour hours due to automatization

AF-1 said:

And what about current labour in China, working mostly 12 hours, 6 days per week???
I have a coleague architect in China, he often stay overnight in the office to sleep coz he finish work so late and is not reasonable to back home to sleep...
I highly doubt companies will reduce human labour hours due to automatization

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We are still far away from what you are envisioning. Currently, any sort of automation/AI is more about enchancing the work of an employee.

We haven't yet reach the point where a single AI software package can immediately result in hundreds of employees in a conpany getting laid off.

However, automation/AI is inevitable. Instead of finding out ways to stall technological advancement, we should instead embrace AI and figure out how to deal with its consequences in our economic model

History has clearly shown that whatever country wants to stop technological advancement, it will always fail. It is impossible to stop

Overbom said:

We are still far away from what you are envisioning. Currently, any sort of automation/AI is more about enchancing the work of an employee.

We haven't yet reach the point where a single AI software package can immediately result in hundreds of employees in a conpany getting laid off.

However, automation/AI is inevitable. Instead of finding out ways to stall technological advancement, we should instead embrace AI and figure out how to deal with its consequences in our economic model

History has clearly shown that whatever country wants to stop technological advancement, it will always fail. It is impossible to stop

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Sure. China should not restrain it, on the contrary, it needs to invest more, accelerate its development. Automation and artificial intelligence are the future.

Nutrient said:

If the robots do, say, half the jobs, the solution is for everyone to work half the hours.

This is unlikely to happen in a hypercapitalist American economy, as companies would find it more efficient to employ half the number of people full-time and then fire the rest -- and let the latter starve. So the oncoming robot revolution is a serious concern for Americans.

However, China is socialist. If robots work half the hours, everyone can still be employed if each works only half as much as before. People could still be paid the same; the robots will be making so much wealth that this will be possible. Companies might be reluctant to let their employees work only four hours a day, but a socialist government should have little trouble "encouraging" the sharing of work.

So for China at least, I am not too worried about the robot revolution.

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Yes, I would assume that ideal developed modern socialist society, once reach automation and post-scarcity status will redistribute the vast amount of wealth generated a lot more balanced and equally to all workers involved, who will work fewer hours while under an advanced social welfare system and free education supported by well-executed tax laws, people will have time to finally enjoy family life or to seek more academic degrees, which can both retract stress from the aging population and satisfy hunger for more talent, with increased salary and more free time, the circulation of the economy will also improve vastly

Also as a Chinese, finding a job isn't hard, especially with the right degree. It is however，quite hard to find a job with full insurance and a legal work time schedule (996 culture) in the private sector right now