New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
"A Toyota bought 20 years ago can still be used today and kept in good working condition. Can the same be said for Chinese NEVs? Only time will tell. "

[My Comments]
While this is a common concern, the tweet above touches quite a few aspects and it is too early or even unfair to the Chinese NEV exporters at this juncture.

I remember my roommate bought a 1986 Honda Civic coupe. Back then, lots of American car owners viewed Japanese cars as "a piece of junk", even though long time owners of Hondas and Toyotas thought otherwise. It takes more than 2 decades for Toyota and Honda to establish as mainstream household brands. BTW, Toyota literally "invented" the notions of JIT, Kanban, TQM, etc., even though Kanban is from Chinese 看板 and concept of QC was from American scholar Edwards Deming. The secret of Toyota can be simply put in one sentence: do whatever it takes to eliminate special cause variations in every step of a production line. Well, today's Super Intelligent Manufacturing in Chinese NEVs such as Seres and Chery are just accomplishing that, although using AI and 5G oriented automation instead of human skills.

The explosive phenomenon of China auto exports is just less than 5 years old. There will definitely be lessons to be learned at all levels. At this moment, in comparison to what it took Japanese auto makers and Korean auto makers to establish themselves as legit global car makers, Chinese auto makers are experiencing parabolic growth, which has both plus and minus baked in.

I drove LX470 for 20 years and 4Runner for 17 years. Those old made-in-Japan cars were really durable and reliable. At the same time, there is myth built into those Japanese cars. All my new car purchases were Japanese except for Audi A6. At this juncture, I don't think Toyota or Honda hold significant advantages in total-cost-of-ownership over BYD or Seres or Chery or SAIC. Automation with 5G and AI have really been leveling the play field in overall car manufacturing quallity. BTW, on this subject, my Audi A6 was good, but not as good as 60K cars in 2011 dolars should have been.

My point is: give them some time and cut them some slacks, for they are doing way better than all wildest expectations - kudos to Chery in particular.
 

gk1713

New Member
Registered Member
"A Toyota bought 20 years ago can still be used today and kept in good working condition. Can the same be said for Chinese NEVs? Only time will tell. "

[My Comments]
While this is a common concern, the tweet above touches quite a few aspects and it is too early or even unfair to the Chinese NEV exporters at this juncture.

I remember my roommate bought a 1986 Honda Civic coupe. Back then, lots of American car owners viewed Japanese cars as "a piece of junk", even though long time owners of Hondas and Toyotas thought otherwise. It takes more than 2 decades for Toyota and Honda to establish as mainstream household brands. BTW, Toyota literally "invented" the notions of JIT, Kanban, TQM, etc., even though Kanban is from Chinese 看板 and concept of QC was from American scholar Edwards Deming. The secret of Toyota can be simply put in one sentence: do whatever it takes to eliminate special cause variations in every step of a production line. Well, today's Super Intelligent Manufacturing in Chinese NEVs such as Seres and Chery are just accomplishing that, although using AI and 5G oriented automation instead of human skills.

The explosive phenomenon of China auto exports is just less than 5 years old. There will definitely be lessons to be learned at all levels. At this moment, in comparison to what it took Japanese auto makers and Korean auto makers to establish themselves as legit global car makers, Chinese auto makers are experiencing parabolic growth, which has both plus and minus baked in.

I drove LX470 for 20 years and 4Runner for 17 years. Those old made-in-Japan cars were really durable and reliable. At the same time, there is myth built into those Japanese cars. All my new car purchases were Japanese except for Audi A6. At this juncture, I don't think Toyota or Honda hold significant advantages in total-cost-of-ownership over BYD or Seres or Chery or SAIC. Automation with 5G and AI have really been leveling the play field in overall car manufacturing quallity. BTW, on this subject, my Audi A6 was good, but not as good as 60K cars in 2011 dolars should have been.

My point is: give them some time and cut them some slacks, for they are doing way better than all wildest expectations - kudos to Chery in particular.
I would say the main group was benefited by 20 years old Toyota would be those militia. Suddenly people cares about "terrorist's’ material supply.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
In the case of autos and passenger vehicles in general you are transporting light loads so it is easier to make economically viable EVs.
For transport of heavy cargo like with trucks, I think major investments into electric transmission, and novel higher density batteries with low cost will be necessary to make a full replacement.

Creating a high capacity modern power grid with current technology economically is probably impossible. Which is why I keep saying ballistic conductors or some other technology will need to be created produced and made economical first.

Today you can produce a carbon nanotube conductor wire. But the technology to make them is so imperfect you are better off with copper or aluminium wires in most cases. You can only transmit a tiny amount of power over a short distance with them. This is the same issue fiber optic cables had when they were invented, but as we became able to manufacture them with higher purity they totally replaced copper. And they are made with materials that you can find just about anywhere.
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For now even intermediate technologies where they replace the load bearing structures with carbon fibers would massively help boost the capacity of the existing power grid.

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The CNT-enhanced cable from TS Conductor could triple (300%) the capacity of existing transmission lines, but TS Conductor eventually aims for 500% capacity. The cables can reduce line losses—the power lost between the energy source and its intended destination—by 50%.

The core doesn’t expand under thermal loads (high temperatures in remote environments, for example), eliminating the potential for thermal sagging and keeping the power line taut and able to withstand high winds. The core is also lightweight but with high strength, an ideal property combination for structural supports, making it more resilient and durable.

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