New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

This is an interesting poster because it included song+ series with ocean series. But anyhow. Song+ had over 580k orders according to this. According to link above, it had 478k orders, but that includes Song Pro series also. So, my guess is order book increased by about by close to 150k this year. If we add in pre-2022 orders, I think we are looking at 3 months of backlog at 70k a month.

Dolphin got over 360k orders with a little over 200k sales. Including some backlog from 2021. We are probably looking at 6 months of backlog even if they increase production rate to 30k a month! So, huge backlog here and they really need to work toward increasing production rate here.

Seal got over 110k orders with a little over 50k sales, so that's 60k orders backlog. That's 4 months of backlog. I think they will need to increase production rate here too.

Destroyer 05 got over 88k orders with 51k sales, so that's 37k order backlog. I mean that's a decent backlog, but they are really not producing a lot right now. So, I'm still not sure the point of the warship series.

Over all, the ocean series increased backlog by 350k this year. If dynasty series increased backlog by similar amount (let's just say for example Yuan added long backlogs for example). And if we add backlog from last year, we might be looking at close to 1 million in backlog which is about 4 months. Yuan probably has the longest backlog and is in dire need of additional capacity. Dolphin is very long too and need production to be raised. After that, Seal and Song+ are the next 2 families that are likely to see raised production.

Further breakdown for Ocean series.
looks like Song+ has been reclassified in the Ocean series. It's quite insane that Song Pro is still getting 20k sales a month! Any other EV brand in China would love 20k sales per month. No wonder they keep adding production to Song series. The demand is endless. It's almost a brand all by itself.

So, 460k new backlog got accumulated this year. At pace of 99k/month in production, we are looking at almost 5 months of production left. If we add some left over backlog from last year, this gets even longer. I think Dynasty series is most likely going to have smaller backlog than this.

tphuang said:

Any other EV brand in China would love 20k sales per month.

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Wuling

吉利加油

Not sure if someone's posted this but BYD has refreshed the Dolphin

Removed the entry 300km version and raised prices slightly for the remaining 3 versions with many improvements

I think it's a good idea. A range of 300km is too little for a "real car"

sndef888 said:

Not sure if someone's posted this but BYD has refreshed the Dolphin

Removed the entry 300km version and raised prices slightly for the remaining 3 versions with many improvements

I think it's a good idea. A range of 300km is too little for a "real car"

Click to expand...

i did earlier. but yes, 300 km doesn't make sense when the Sea Gull is coming as the real city car.

T-1 for Yangwang unveil. This is very exciting.

Phase 6 for Wuhu/Wuwei industrial zone has started work. will be more auto parts factory. IIRC, phase 5 delivers 35 GWh of battery and battery packs when fully ramped.

This actually seriously annoys me that they are using Nvidia products so much on their car. If they get sanctioned for it, that's their own fault.

A great summary of BYD's efforts across Brazil in 2022. I can't wait to see what they have planned in 2023. And even more than that, more Chinese companies need to get locally involved in Brazil like BYD.

unbelievable, now BYD is going to become a shipping company too.
They are just going to take over every step of the process. At this pace, they are going to buy out some struggling shipyard in China and make it their own.

[Comments]
Tesla Shanghai has reached production capacity of 700K~800K per year in 3 years. According previous Musk remarks, Tesla Shanghai produces highest quality and lowest cost within the company. Recent reports also revealed that the head of Tesla Shanghai was promoted to oversee the US operations while retaining his exiting APAC portfolios. The left-out is Tesla Berlin.

So it is fair to say that the top 2 EV companies are "Chinese" companies. They are de facto tier-1 EV companies.

To speculate the potential tier-2 EV companies, my guess:
SAIC
VW
Geely/Volvo/Polestar
GAIC
Huawei and associates

VW has the greatest potentials to move onto tier-1 if it can fix its software integration with its ID platforms.

My M&A candidates are:
Huawei EV + GAIC + Li + Xpeng - they are Guangdong companies.
SAIC + NIO - they are Shanghai companies.

My dark horse is Huawei EV. A likely feasible venture is for Huawei to acquire GAIC to form a Huawei EV business unit.

In the next 5 to 10 years, it is the ICT EV integration that will differentiate and determine the fate of EV companies and wannabes. China is the only country that has established an end-to-end EV eco-system, with US in a distant second place. EU is likely an EV consuming giant, but not likely a production giant.

Finally, China has become the most advanced car manufacturing country in Asia. This is kind of "end of history" events in my book of world history. Absolutely surreal.