Another update on production situation in BYD. You can make your own assessment on how believable this is.
Currently, production rate at 48G large blade battery per year and 15G small blade battery a year. Get to 150 G by end of this year and add another 100G in 2023 to reach 250 G. This seems different Han some of the charges, but maybe more realistic.
April production was 5.5 GWh, May and June will be 6 and 6.5 GWh.
estimated to produce 80 GWh of battery this year (60 For BYD, 10 for external and 10 for energy storage). Next year, will produce 136 GWh (96 For BYD, 20 for external and 20 for energy storage). The numbers don't really correspond since 150 G production capacity by the end of this year should mean they can do at least 150 GWh for 2023, but maybe these are just conservative estimates.
Car production rate at 100k in April and going up bye 20k per month until reaching 200k (about September). Estimated to reach 1.8 million production this year and 2.7 million in 2023. Again, a little lower than previous estimates (especially on the full year 2023 delivery). I was expecting them to reach around 3.5 million in 2023 (and hitting maybe 400k a month by end of 2023). But given the steep learning curve for so many new factories, this is probably more realistic.
Seems like BYD's DM-i battery pouch production is not meeting demand, causing delays in delivery. With new Xi'an factory coming on line, should be installing 10 new DM-i battery pack lines. New factory will have 30GWh in yearly production. Will go into production in June.
This has been hurting Qin/Song DM-i production rate. Starting in July, this should not be a problem anymore and they start Qin+ DM-i production in Hefei.
I think BYD should be very wary of having a wholly owned factory in India. Look at what happened with Xiaomi, Vodafone and a lot of other foreign multinationals for example.
Probably the best option is to continue with JVs with local Indian partners, for political protection against the government. BYD will still be exporting components.
But even then, I don't see that many sales because incomes are low and there isn't any electric car charging infrastructure in place (and there won't be a big push for this for years yet)
Right, I'm talking about JVs. I think you have to partner up locally to get anything done in India. They already have one here.
looks like Olectra/BYD has close to 1/4 of local market in bus space. With this large order, they will be the largest. Passenger 4-Wheeler is still a small market, but I think that's due to lack of a competitive small car. Which is what Sea Gull would be.
The e6 MPV they offer in India is not exactly a cheap or competitive product, but they still a distance #4 in the market.
They are certainly working to address the charging station situation.
Just imagine now if they offer something more in the 12 to 15k USD instead of 40k USD (like e6), it would be more appealing in local market. I'm not just advocating this for India, but also all of Southeast Asia. I think Sea Gull would have a lot of appeal. Keep in mind that even in China, BYD had minimal number of sales for many years before things really took off in 2021. Maybe less developed markets like India and ASEAN countries will need another 5 years to see this EV explosion, but it will come.