Necessary Reading and Discussion for US Armchair Generals

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
I do think that you don't need seperate, dedicated forces for these jobs, regulars can do that pretty good as well, if they are well prepared, and if the strategic-political idea behind it is sound.
Look at southern A-stan, we finally seem to be making some progress. Why did it take nine years? I think because someone finally realized, nation building is not done by networking drones and satellites and a few next gen soldiers that rush through an area and then leave again. But by securing an area and then holding it to allow the local population to prosper. Again, a troop surge may have turned the tide. I'm reading that sometimes commanders wanted 300.000troops for a country the size of A-stan. In these missions, numbers do matter, a lot.

I also storngly advocate sophisticated, highly mobile COIN / CT "hunter/killer" forces with good firepower. That means UAVs for good survaillance, modern helos etc. It seems in prolonged, high tempo ops, they can put a real strain on hostile force structures. And we need the regular combat troops that secure an area from the foot guerillas and then stay to prevent these from trickling back.

That is if you choose to rather build a nation to a certain degree.
Then there's the other way, the shadow method, like what we see much more often recently. With a big deployment you get tied down, everybody watches etc. But you could also just dispatch small strike forces that harm an enemies infrastructure / network like we start seeing in Yemen or Somalia. These could be specialized branches somewhere inside SOCOM with support from outside as needed.

It is true that traditional infantry forces can perform COIN ops pretty well if they're trained and led properly. But I don't see conventional war making a big comeback in the 21st century, certainly not long-term conventional war. So while regular infantry can do the job, it would be easier for a specialized force, and indeed the threat from irregular combatants is far greater today than it is from conventional armies. Why fight with a force that is less than optimized for the threat? So I maintain that it would probably be a pretty good idea for the great powers to go with forces like this.

You're certainly onto something with the idea about hunter/killer forces. The British in Northern Ireland used them as did the French in Algeria (they lost but it was actually a very effective part of their strategy). The "surge" in Iraq was greatly aided by SOCOMs vicious and still very secret campaign of assassination against insurgent leaders. And now in Afghanistan we're seeing Petraeus put a lot of emphasis on causing casualties.

I tried to incorporate that into my idea with the inclusion of airmobile commandos and organic air assets. Doctrinally I would think that these forces could be used in a manner similar to how the Rhodesian Light Infantry regiment operated in the Rhodesian Bush War during the 1970s. They were wondrously effective at destroying guerrilla forces in the bush. Here's a brief description of their methods (it's quite similar to some American airborne operations in Vietnam)
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Now, it is true that both the Rhodesians and Americans lost those conflicts, but on an operational level these tactics were quite effective. The idea is to use airmobile elite light infantry sort of as "bird dogs" for heavier fire power. They can be set down in insurgent controlled territory and advance into an area, flushing out unprepared insurgents and, by engaging them, making them visible and vulnerable to airpower of all types. Fireforce-type missions can be made even more effective when recon units are clandestinely inserted into insurgent controlled areas, who call in the airmobile forces when insurgent concentrations are spotted. Nowadays we also have UAVs to do this sort of work. Additionally, these airmobile forces can enter insurgent controlled territory and erect temporary checkpoints on transportation routes or conduct surprise cordon and search operations in populated areas. Should these operations draw insurgent fire, all the better. They've made themselves visible and can be destroyed by firepower from the air or elsewhere. Finally they can conduct more strategic-level raids of the type that the Rhodesian Light Infantry conducted against guerrilla camps in Mozambique and other countries.

Of course, hunter-killer operations are not at all sufficient to quell an insurgency and can even make it worse if civilians are frequently harmed. And these operations need to be planned for the specific circumstances of the war they are in. For example, the FireForce missions that were appropriate and effective in Rhodesia would not have been appropriate or effective in Northern Ireland. But the need for an offensive capability to disrupt insurgent activity and keep them on the defensive remains.

So doctrinally, if this force were to be created and employed, I envision the brigades of infantry securing the most populated areas and routes of transportation. They're the ones that protect and engage with the local population. They build networks of informants, man checkpoints, do development projects, protect elections, etc. All that normal COIN stuff. Outside of areas that are "secured", the hunter-killer teams will operate, taking the fight to the enemy in the manner that I described. I suppose that the idea would be to eventually expand the "secured area" outwards, but that might not be possible without increasing troop numbers indefinitely, depending on the situation.
 

Scratch

Captain
Well, the kinetic parts of COIN, especially quick raids, ambushes, searches, can be done by specialized / special forces that may emphazise the COIN environment a little more. But I do think on the individual / squad level the employment is not so much different from raiding an airfield or forward command post in a more regular war. An A-Team - Ranger combo (in US terms) is probably always a good solution, maybe Delta for high value targets. The FireForce units (the hint was great, not known it before, thanks) weren't special COIN troops either, as I see it, but paratroopers specializing in a certain type of quick, airborne assault, that fit the need at the moment. And besides these, or the SAS in Northern Ireland, I think early Seal teams were also quite effective in harrasing the VC in North Vietnam.
For the things that go more into policing action, like quickly and randomly setting up checkpoint, sealing off certain areas for a search, or just showing some presence in villages, light - medium infantry that focuses on these tasks does indeed seem sensible, though.
On another note, I think Northern Ireland, and to e certain extent Rhodesia are a little different, in that these were more or less domestic issues. The "great powers" you describe will most likely be stable at home and fight COIN abroad in a more expeditionary nature. But it's true that COIN requires different employment methods and individual skills on some levels then were seen before in the military.

I guess what is of the greatest concern to me is how much you want to blow up the scale of such an operation. Meaning you either stay low key, out of view and in the shadow; or you do the full up, open intervetion.
When you go in with the intent to eventually build state structures with lots of troops providing general security, you're in total public view. Your enemy has a visible target and will be attracted, and the enemy have a powerful audiance in your home population. If you do that, then you have to leave behind a stable, built up country. Otherwise, if your opponent remains able to cause insecurity and uncertainty after you leave, they'll be able to say they outlasted you, wich in the long run hurts perception of your ability to succeed militarily. So you either need troops to fill the viod after your COIN teams sweep through, or a local force that can fill that viod right away. There a lot depends on the local situation.
On the other hand, if you can find some basic state / tribe / security structures in place, you can have your specialized troops clear an area out of too much public view with quick raids, searches, checkpoints etc. while the locals pick up from there, building their society from the local level in their way. That way, your ops can go ahead without a visible enemy for the insurgency. They don't know and can't show who they're really fighting, so you can get to their morale. This way, you can built hubs of security, from wich to operate. This would mean just a few thausand troops maybe in one theater.

On the equipment side armed UAVs for survaillance, overwatch or stand alone strike are a great option.
Good helicopters to quickly reach spots of reported activity, or maybe randomly pop up in certain villiges to say hello. A light ground attack plane would be a great asset, it would help the low key small infrastructure approach. Unfortunately, I think the USAF canceled that project in spring this year. A Super Tucano like plane would be a great addtion to gunships.
 
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Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Time to bring this thread back.

I'd like to introduce all of you who don't know to Mr. H. John Poole. He was a Marine officer of various ranks for about 30 years and saw lots of combat in Vietnam. He has written more, and better, pieces about fighting modern insurgent-style warfare than almost anyone else I know, especially when it comes to the use of smaller infantry units and individual infantrymen. The style of warfare he calls for is truly suited to the sort of fighting that is most common amongst professional military forces in the world today.

Unfortunately, all of his writings are books, not online, and they're sort of hard to find. But you can at least skim his books on Amazon and get an idea of what he's talking about. Here's a few of his best

The Tiger's Way
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One More Bridge To Cross (A pretty excellent, very, very detailed piece on the importance and future of infantry. He lays out a really great comprehensive view of how to use infantry in modern conventional war and make it survivable)
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He's written a lot of other books, generally oriented at dissecting and analyzing what he seems to see as "culturally specific warfare techniques" that show up around the world, which the US might face. Thus he has a couple of books analyzing lessons from America's wars in East Asia, and some about the Middle East.

Let me caution you about one thing. Poole is a bit crazy. His books often start out with rambling, almost philosophical throat clearings about this or that which usually ends up in a flag-waving rah-rah USA sort of thing. He sometimes goes out of his way to denounce the "Chi-coms" or "Islamofacists". He's pretty much a super-patriot. I can see that causing a lot of SDFers to not listen to what he has to say. But he has real respect for fellow warriors, even those he sees as America's enemies. He'll never minimize the skill and cunning of an enemy for ideological reasons.

(also could a mod change the title of this thread so that US isn't capitalized? I wanted it to say "us" rather than implying this is for Americans)
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
I guess what is of the greatest concern to me is how much you want to blow up the scale of such an operation. Meaning you either stay low key, out of view and in the shadow; or you do the full up, open intervetion.
When you go in with the intent to eventually build state structures with lots of troops providing general security, you're in total public view. Your enemy has a visible target and will be attracted, and the enemy have a powerful audiance in your home population. If you do that, then you have to leave behind a stable, built up country. Otherwise, if your opponent remains able to cause insecurity and uncertainty after you leave, they'll be able to say they outlasted you, wich in the long run hurts perception of your ability to succeed militarily. So you either need troops to fill the viod after your COIN teams sweep through, or a local force that can fill that viod right away. There a lot depends on the local situation.
On the other hand, if you can find some basic state / tribe / security structures in place, you can have your specialized troops clear an area out of too much public view with quick raids, searches, checkpoints etc. while the locals pick up from there, building their society from the local level in their way. That way, your ops can go ahead without a visible enemy for the insurgency. They don't know and can't show who they're really fighting, so you can get to their morale. This way, you can built hubs of security, from wich to operate. This would mean just a few thausand troops maybe in one theater.

You're right, the best solution to any war is to avoid it in the first place. I suppose you've been reading some Sun Tzu; he would always advocate dealing with a problem secretly rather than going ahead with an invasion of some kind. One of the things I've harped on throughout this thread is that "all out war" is less and less of a solution to the problems that states have. So you're right, what you have to look for now, in modern strategic military thinking, is ways to exert maximum leverage; you're always looking for the option that allows the biggest positive outcome to resource input ratio. How can I use a minimum of force to achieve as much of my desired outcome as possible?
 

Scratch

Captain
Indeed, i think that a classic full scale war would require full scale occupation afterwards to have the stability needed to built the structures you'd like the future state to have. We saw that in WW II were millions of soldiers were available patrol a country until objectives were met.
Nowadays, with the structural changes that have taken place, such a feat would be nearly impossible, numbers wise and economicly wise. So nations will indeed have to find ways to achieve objectives, wich actually fail to be set in the first place lately, with different means. Through coalitions or so on.

A point in case I'd like to bring up and see how others think about it, because it's fairly relevant and current IMO, is Somalia.
I don't reject military force in generall at all, it must just be mated to todays realities. And I believe that military force will have to be part of the solution to the Somalia & piracy problem.
I imagine a naval taskforce that is actually patrolling the somali cost very agressively and close to the actual costline, thus already controlling and boarding suspect skiffs and motherships right when they leave port. These TF could then provide a persistant ISR & fire support role along the cost for further missions.
That naval force must also encompass amphib forces that are ready to move ashore and securey and/or clear out certain ports wich are know piracy hot spots. Maybe even hold them for some time. Plus I think this military operation should assist AU troops in clearing and securing Mogadishu at least. From there on, however, the objective of the opertation should just be to continue securing the costline, the capital and then support an AU mission in spreading controll further throuout the country. With maybe some spec op missions against high value targets.

This would then be less of a modern COIN and more of a classical military operation again. The MOUT part of clearing Mogadishu could well be a rather bloody and nasty thing to do. But with a AU mission already involved it doesn't have too much a colonial look to it. And after that rather short time, the main ground ops could be left to an african operation while outside forces just support and patrol, again out of too much public attention.

+++ Btw, Finn, since you started the thread, shouldn't there also an "edit thread" button available for you? I think in a thread I started, I had that option. +++
 
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delft

Brigadier
A force trained specifically for COIN is directly contrary to the Charter of the United Nations. How are you going to defend yourself there?
As far as Somalia is concerned, any serious government is better than the rabble being defended by the AU now. Abandon them, await the formation of a government and let them solve the piracy problem.
Destroying the Islamic Courts government was a big mistake.
 

Scratch

Captain
Just found a book review on the SWJ: "How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict"

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A nice four page read. I don't know the original book but it seems pretty interesting and the review also conveys the core message.
It's basicly a study on who wins a conflict between a strong and a weak actor when fought under different circumstances. The strong actor will win most of the time when both sides use the same means, meaning both fight a conventional war, or both fight an unconventional one. If one side fights a different style than the other, no matter wich way around, the weak actor will win more often than not. The auther uses the term STRATINT - strategic interaction - for that. In the end he therefore actually calls for two militarys in a country's armed forces to be prepared to fight both wars.

Pretty much in line with what Finn earlier proposed in this thread. I still wonder, however, if it really needs to be two different militaries, or if different operational employment doctrines wouldn't already be enough. The strong actor will be chasing the weak actors way in this theory, while the weak actor will always be trying to do the opposite thing.

Also on the SWJ there was an entry with a short article about a review conducted by CNA.org. That had a link to a pdf book titled: "COUNTERINSURGENCY ON THE GROUND IN AFGHANISTAN - How different units adapted to local conditions"

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It basicly tells the stories of selceted units of platoon or company size that operated for some time in remote locations across A-stan and developed their own methods of dealing with the situation and doing COIN tailored for local needs.
I have barely started reading, but it seems it will provide an interesting insight.
 
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deltat

Just Hatched
Registered Member
colonization of Earth: Zeta Reticulians, or Zionans

No alien conspiracy theory spam...
 
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zoom

Junior Member
Not a bad article i thought,not too sensationalist.I hope it's not been posted before.

Is China Trying to Bankrupt US?

By Brad Glosserman

Does a cash-strapped US face a Cold War redux as China encourages it to ramp up defence spending? Boosting alliances is the way to respond, says Brad Glosserman.
One popular narrative credits the end of the Cold War to a US strategy to bankrupt the Soviet Union. Well aware of the advantage conferred by its superior economic performance, Washington pushed Moscow into a military competition that drained the USSR of its resources. In this narrative, US President Ronald Reagan’s push to create a missile defence system – realistic or not – was the straw that broke the Soviet back.

Are Chinese strategists pursuing a similar approach to the United States? Is Beijing pushing US buttons, forcing it to spend increasingly scarce resources on defence assets and diverting them from other more productive uses? Far-fetched though it may seem – and the reasons to be sceptical are pretty compelling – there is evidence that China is doing just that: ringing American alarm bells, forcing the US to respond, and compounding fiscal dilemmas within the United States. Call it Cold War redux.

China emerged from the 2007-8 global economic crisis with a new sense of its strength and corresponding US weakness when it comes to money and power. The Chinese don’t have the new balance of power right – the United States isn’t as weakened as many assume and China has its own problems – but they are right to note both the centrality of economic strength to international position and a new attitude and atmosphere in the United States. Beijing also senses US overextension and sensitivity to Chinese provocations (broadly defined). There’s a new economic reality for US security planners.

Money is tight. In this era of new austerity, the United States has to make increasingly difficult choices about spending priorities. Both economic rationality and military purpose have to guide procurement. Defence Secretary Robert Gates tried to get in front of this process with a budget that cuts $100 billion in defence spending. He isn’t trying to gut the military as some allege, but instead seeks to strengthen it with a long-term spending plan. His fear is that in the absence of such a proposal, ad hoc decisions (decisions not guided by a long-term strategy) will damage US capabilities.

China is trying to shape that strategy – not just by playing down its potential to threaten the United States but by playing up some of its capabilities. That’s one way to read China’s January 2007 anti-satellite test or the test of the stealth fighter in January of this year just as Gates was visiting China. China is trying to make its capabilities, no matter how nascent or premature, the focus of US planning and forcing the US to respond.

While this theory – that China would highlight its own threat to force a US response – sounds far-fetched, it seems to be working. There’s mounting concern in the defence community over China’s deployment of an aircraft carrier and its anti-access area denial strategy. That’s reasonable: hysteria and dire warnings about a transformation of the regional balance of power are not.


Some Chinese strategists offer an explanation for the tests that have so inflamed US sensitivities that fits this grand design. One expert argues that China is hedging – the tests both maintain Chinese capabilities and signal the United States that it can’t hope to make ‘a technological breakout’ that China will not match. Beijing won’t let the US monopolize high-tech capabilities. The flip side of that logic is that China will do enough to keep the United States on alert, if not hypersensitive to Chinese actions, and that will drive US decision-making.

On the other hand, Henry Kissinger’s recent tome notwithstanding, most observers don’t credit the Chinese with the ability to be that strategic or far sighted, nor do they have a monolithic foreign policy establishment. In this context, the ASAT and fighter provocations could just as easily be explained as being the result of bureaucracies behaving badly, i.e., ministries failing to coordinate.

Most significantly, the success of the Cold War redux strategy – if it exists – depends on the United States surrendering the initiative to China. There’s little evidence that this is happening. But there is no mistaking the attention to Chinese developments and the potential threats they pose to US pre-eminence in the western Pacific, the protection of US and allied interests, and regional stability generally. That is the correct approach – but US decison makers shouldn’t hyperventilate about or overinflate the Chinese threat. As CSIS Pacific Forum President Ralph Cossa has noted, ‘When the Chinese finally deploy an operational aircraft carrier – and there is a big distinction between sea trials and becoming fully operational (measured in years, not months) – the proper US response should be to congratulate Beijing on finally achieving the status of the Soviet (or Ukrainian) Navy, circa 1984.’

Some historians challenge the Cold War narrative upon which this ‘strategy’ is based, arguing that the Soviet Union collapsed from within with little help from the United States. That doesn't mean that the dangers of US implosion aren’t real, however.

Budget funds are tight. And, significantly, cracks are beginning to appear within the United States. National politics are increasingly polarized and paralyzed as the country debates how to get its economic house in order. A recent Wall Street Journal editorial told readers they have to choose between being a superpower or a welfare state. That is precisely the choice the new Cold Warriors would want us to face. Nothing could be more divisive or more capable of short-circuiting US politics. Nothing would be more detrimental to long-term US interests than to short-change the domestic investments needed to keep the country strong.

In addition, defence procurement has to be smarter and better focused. Force reductions are inevitable (and have been occurring) but they need not undermine US capabilities. Nor will they send the wrong signals to allies and adversaries if they are the result of a deliberate strategy.

Most important, the United States must better leverage its strengths, in particular its relationships with allies, friends and partners.

Alliances and relationships are force multipliers. The more tightly integrated the US and its allies, the more convincing the signal to potential adversaries that the United States is committed to the defence of those partners – in other words, it strengthens our deterrent. And that is the most important element of our security strategy in the Asia Pacific.

Full un-edited version >
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delft

Brigadier
I have not yet read the un-edited version, but it seems to me that it its much too early for the game described in #19. What China is doing is not stopping the US, by a veto in the UN Security Council, when they want to attack much smaller countries like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The war against Libya is expensive to China, but even more to the US. China is investing in infrastructure in its own country as well as abroad, while US infrastructure is deteriorating and states and local authorities are too poor to do anything about it. Neighboring countries are knitted into the Chinese economy by the railways and pipelines being built. The US in the mean time learn that they are not strong enough to win control of a small country within a reasonable time and against a reasonable cost.
While the US is developing their armed forces to fight small countries China is developing its armed forces to protect China. Even at the huge disparity in the war budgets China looks to be more successful at this game than the US.
 
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