I am not convinced about everyone going AESA.
But let's see what we established so far in this thread:
1. Frequency agility: no difference between PESA and AESA
I'm not convinced about that. State changes between a large CRT vs. much smaller device with solid state transistors. LPI also operates on low power. There is also the timing from long feed lines vs. being much closer to the antenna. There is also linearity, and noise power that favors the SSPA, especially the GaN SSPA.
2. Beamforming on receive. Both PESA and AESA can do this.
3. Digital beamforming on receive: both PESA and AESA can do this.
4. Beamforming multiple beams on transmit: only useful in rare circumstances due to severe reductions in PA product. PESA radars with multiple transmitters and subarrays can also do this.
5. Phaseshifter before HPA. Only AESA. Leads to a different, likely cheaper phase shifter that needs to handle much lower power levels. Distinct advantage of AESA due to lower losses on transmit.
6. No corporate waveguide architecture with 0.1dB/m losses. Distinct advantage of AESA
7. Peak power: clear advantage of PESA due to VED HPAs.
Something to discuss further: digital on transmit?
Some things we haven't discussed, and revolve between the choice of SSPA vs VED. While almost all AESAs use SSPA for their HPA, we cannot rule out an implementation using VEDs because the improvement in the technology has reached a point where TWTA can compete in size with SSPA and beat them in overall package volume/weight. That's why they tend to be the better choice for UAVs.
I don't know what "improvement in technology" you are referring to, when much of the defense industry isn't pursuing VED devices, not even the Russians. If you want to use an SSPA upon a TWT to improve linearity, you will end up having another power supply for the SSPA, because TWT requires high voltage but SSPA requires high amp. That's not going to beat a pure SSPA system in terms of heat and weight, since you now also have to cool and power the SSPA added on the TWT. As for heat, shift to GaN means SSPA will be cooler and more power efficient, this means smaller power supply and less obstrusive cooling systems.
TwT are not a universally better choice for UAVs. They are chosen for a specific purpose. TWTs are used with SAR, as SAR often uses extremely high frequencies. That's the advantage of TWT over solid state, very high frequencies over Ka band, and SAR is used for terrain mapping. But SSPA is gradually going pushing this boundary. If you are not going to use SAR, UAVs are moving into conformal arrays, which is a type of AESA that is non planar. These arrays can blend with the body form of the UAV.
1. Theoretically higher MTBF. This is not always clear cut. SSPA are not as durable as VEDs in space applications for example. They also tend to have more problems with the power supply compared to VEDs. Many times VED based systems turn out to be more durable.
A single VED powering a PESA isn't more reliable than more than 1000 elements of an AESA. If the single VED fails, there goes the entire radar. If a single element fails on the AESA, it results only in a tiny degradation of performance. How many elements need to fail all at one time before you achieve significant degradation, and even that, the radar can still function? What are the chances of this happening?
In a naval system, the AESA also allows an engineer to replace a broken module through the back of the array, even during the middle of the sea. This is assuming a fixed type AESA set on deckhouse or an integrated mast. In a naval AESA, with four arrays, you can easily have up to over 20,000 elements alone in a ship in a combined total, let's say with four arrays the size of the SPY-6 or Type 346A.
Here for example, you can access the AESA panels from within to conduct repairs and module replacement.
2. No maintenance required for SSPAs. Clear plus.
3. No warmup time. Clear plus.
4. Available manufacturing capacity of SSPAs. Clear plus.
Still plenty of manufacturing capacity for vacuum tube type amps, especially for microwave ovens.
And of course, an SSPA can be made so much smaller as you can see with solid state HPA and LNA here.