Looks to me like there was some sort of escalating conflagration around the bottom of the vehicle before the second stage let go. Also Eric Berger (granted, not an objective journalist, but nevertheless has many industry sources) mentioned in his article that BO sources indicated to him that the issue originated in the base of the first stage.
NASA & World Space Exploration...News, Views, Photos & videos
- Thread starter bd popeye
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Major
Yes, you seem to be right. There is a video from a different angle showing the launcher collapsing before the apparent explosion of the upper stage.
There's now absolutely no way the US can win this latest race back to the moon. The Blue Moon was their best chance. There is not one hope that the Starship will be human rated to land on the lunar surface this decade. It has not even reached orbit yet.
The pad damage is not as extensive as initially believed. The most critical infra that would've really delayed them out to 2028 and beyond is in tact. Return to flight at year end is a pretty aggressive goal.