In the end the real winner is NASA because I am sure they will highly encourage Roscosmos and Space X competing with new designs to lower costs.
Space X Chart
Rocket designs that will compete with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy
Amur(2026)
Angara-A5M(2024)
By launching two Amur rockets you get a 44 million dollar cost with re-usable rockets and a payload to LEO with 21,000 kg. The A5M proposes 57 million dollars per launch and is estimated with a payload to LEO to be more than 27.5 tons. The Amur rocket has received enough attention to get a diss from Elon Musk tweet and its re-usability is more than 100 times as well. The Proton-M 1st flight was in 2001 and nothing about its design has changed. By the way the Re-usable Falcon 9 is in fact the block 5 version which began its flight in 11, May 2018 and that is cutting it close in terms of charging costs to NASA by 3 million dollars less and all we did was just wake them up to come up with something better. Proton-M isn't Re-usable so we can still say it is cheaper and carries a little more payload than the Falcon 9 expendable. 16,800 kg to be fair is the payload to LEO for falcon-9 re-usable and in terms of offering more payload for less the cost either rocket design might interest NASA. Than Musk is going to have to come up with a cheaper design.
Falcon Heavy Semi Re-usable there is no such thing, so that's another error in the chart besides the payload weight. Meaning it is all expendable for 150 million or go 90 million dollars if you were to recover all three but instead of 64 tons you get 30 tons to LEO. I have not seen a 95 million dollar launch the center core cannot be recoverable while upper two stages can be unless that is what they mean but I have not seen any price estimates that have said this on any source. All the launch schedule contracts I see are currently above 90 million dollars for the falcon heavy. Even if the Angara-5VM is 3 tons less heavier being a recovery option the cost difference would be between selling the new Angara for 57 million compared to 90 million dollars and up. You can even rake up 3 Amur rocket launches for 66 million dollars to give a 31.5 ton payload to LEO.
The Krylo-SV is expected to fly this year or next year which launches 600 kg payload to orbit and as you expect from the image it would glide back to earth. The current recoverable rockets use half the fuel to launch payload into orbit and the other half of the fuel to land vertically back to earth. But fly wings do need need fuel they just glide back on a runway meaning more money would be saved. The Krylo-SV can introduce options for heavier payload rockets to have glide wing features since Russia has created a new design bureau to work on these kinds of rockets.
The only thing missing on that image is the 140 ton Don Rocket. So while Space X did give launch estimates for Falcon 9 and Heavy I wonder what costs he would give of Starship launch contracts for heavy payloads. Rogozin according to Wikipedia which I do not know how accurate it is said the Yenisei would be 4 times cheaper than the SLS which I do not know which costs he compared since they gave estimates for SLS from 500 million to 1 billion dollars. Currently the Chinese, Russia and U.S. have plans of creating Lunar stations on the Moon. So either Roscosmos or Space X will compete with each other to definitely get contracts with either NASA or even the Chinese depending on the Long March 9 costs.
Some user responded back to me saying this at another forum after I made that response, "
It was covered here before, but the sub $100,000,000 launch prices claimed by Space-X are BS. They do not count direct cost offsets from the US government.
And that is not the same thing as Roscosmos and the associated subcontractors being government run. They operate on cost recovery and not on accounting
scams. I posted a video by Ostashko on the real cost to send the two austronauts to space a few months ago but can't find it now."
Does anyone know what he is talking about? I responded back to him and hopefully he will find me that video.
