There's much talk here about incorporating Myanmar, whether the whole or parts. I think fundamentally people here must understand that doing so will be a massive endeavor; it will take up the resources of the country, even one as great as China, for at least two generations or a minimum of 50 years. The main benefit is access to the Indian Ocean and the agricultural lands of the Irrawaddy River. Myanmar has a little under 60 million people, and they will resist incorporation to one degree or another. Is this a worthy objective while the country is dealing with other hostiles?
The suggestion that China should incorporate Sinicized border areas should be weighed through cost and benefit. Acquiring pieces of undeveloped mountains already with numerous independence factions is going to be a net economic loss. What benefit does it bring practically? Tin mined in Wa state and jade from Kochin already make their way to China either way; what need is there to incorporate Wa state, turning its army hostile to China and spending money for its development?
There is also a need to keep the Myanmar central government functional, if not too powerful. The opposition consists of liberals and Christian separatists supported by the West. If China supports friendly armed groups to the point of collapsing the current government, the next one will certainly be hostile to it.
My suggestion is that no overt military action should be taken. No arms blockades, but no free weapons either. In the meanwhile, try and increase the Sinicization rate. This can be best done through education, specifically language.
For instance, in Wa State, both Mandarin and the local Wa language are taught in high school. However, the current Wa alphabet, developed by Christian missionaries, should be transitioned to Pinyin at the earliest convenience. China could facilitate this transition by allowing the issuance of a Chinese high school diploma upon successfully completing a standardized Chinese high school exam. The exam could be available in Simplified Chinese and Pinyin Wa. Additionally, the completion of this exam could grant various benefits, such as work permits, opportunities for university admission, residency, and more in China. This shift would likely steer education in Wa State towards Pinyin Wa, with a strong possibility of adopting entire curricula developed in Yunnan. The economic value associated with a Burmese diploma is considerably lower than that of a Chinese one, making the latter a more favorable choice for both students and the education system.
This is a very simple way of increasing influence, requiring no foreign activities and can be done entirely on the Chinese side. Its benefit would be as enormous as being able to read Japanese Kanji while in Japan or being able to read certain Chinese characters being from Japan. A simple method of bringing things closer to China.
I don't think China will be "taking over" countries anytime soon. Not in the current international environment where US and allied empire hold 50%+ of world nominal GDP. This is an international system that is completely lopsided towards the west in terms of economic, military and cultural power.
So, China's primary goal for this entire century will be towards catching up the west in terms of GDP per capita, surpassing them if possible, maybe even outcompete them enough that they become poorer because of China.
Eventually though, China will have to also utilize enough proxies such as Russia, Middle East, Latin America to induce military and strategic crises that will end the economic prosperity of the west, cause military defeats and eventually collapse of the alliance.
Once that happens, the world will be a truly multipolar world where anything goes, anyone can takeover anyone if they have enough power. Mind you, this is how the world has always been. The last century was an anomaly caused by the extreme power of the west and unipolar moment.
When this change happens, if this change happens. Then China will have the opportunity to expand borders not just towards Myanmar, but maybe also other countries around it such as Japan, Korea and so on.
This change will be beneficial for China not just because of security, but also if China has a declinining population, adding population by taking over countries and making them citizens could be one way to stem population crisis.
Also another factor, alot of poorer countries will gladly become part of US right now because that will give them instant US citizenship and free entry into US. Places like Samoa and other pacific islands come to mind. This is due to the quality of life and extreme wealth people in the US have compared to poor countries. GDP per capita of 2000 vs 80K is a huge gap and most poor countries are like this.
So, if China is a extremely prosperous and rich country equal to the current west in the future, then many people in poorer countries might be glad to be part of China. And they might be even speaking Chinese as a second language by then just like people learn english as a source of career advancement. So, China will have to attain Economic, Military and Cultural power atleast in Asia and end Western dominance before it can start taking over countries in its periphery.
So, speculation about whether "taking over" will be costly or not is not applicable in the current international system and current Chinese power and wealth. Yes, right now its completely unthinkable.
But in an extremely long term scenario, it could be quite probable. Countries expand when their opponents are weak. If China has such an opportunity, China will surely expand. This is the nature of all countries and peoples.
