ONE FOR ALL AND ALL FOR ONE? Last week’s breakthrough on sending Western-made battle tanks to Ukraine sparked hopes in both Washington and Europe that the tortured transatlantic debate over arming the country had been resolved once and for all.
If only. Just hours after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cleared the way for the export of German-made tanks to the country, the focus shifted to the who, what, where and when of supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. Once again, Scholz was the first to slam on the brakes, repeatedly warning in recent days of the dangers of “escalation,” while insisting that NATO would not become directly involved in the conflict. If you feel like you’ve seen this movie before, join the club.
There is a new wrinkle though. It turns out that an even bigger fear for Scholz than escalation is that NATO, and in particular the U.S., wouldn’t get involved if Russia were to retaliate against, say Germany. That worry — according to an adviser to the German government — is the reason that Scholz insisted that Washington agree to supply Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks before the chancellor would lift his veto on delivering German-made Leopard 2 tanks.
What’s an article worth? While the NATO treaty’s Article 5 calls on alliance members to support one another in the event of an attack, it doesn’t require allies to respond with military force. “If the U.S. is involved directly it’s more likely to use military force to defend its allies in Europe,” Carlo Masala, a German military expert with strong ties to the country’s political establishment, said this week on German public television. “That’s a very strong rationale for Scholz and why he insists that the U.S. is involved.”
In other words, Scholz doesn’t trust the U.S.
GERMANY’S DIFFICULT MISSION IN SOUTH AMERICA: German Chancellor Scholz returned this morning from a five-day South America trip which, among other things, was aimed at rallying countries of the Global South behind the West's support for Ukraine. But the visit to Brazil went awry, underlining how challenging it is to build a united global front against Russian President Vladimir Putin and his propaganda.
"If one doesn't want to, two can't fight": That’s the key quote by Brazil's new President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who implied at a joint press conference with Scholz that Ukraine was also responsible for Russia's invasion. "I think the reason for the war between Russia and Ukraine also needs to be clearer. Is it because of NATO? Is it because of territorial claims? Is it because of entry into Europe? The world has little information about that," Lula added.
Pushing Mercosur deal: During his visits to Brazil and Argentina, Scholz also urged a swift ratification of the long-delayed trade and political cooperation deal between the EU and the Mercosur trading bloc of South American countries. However, both Lula and Argentinian President Alberto Fernández told him that while the EU is keen to reinforce the environmental protection clauses of the deal, they want to reopen the (in principle already finalized) agreement to negotiate better trade-offs for their economies.