China has enough firepower and manpower to set the entire pacific and beyond on fire. But I think In China and Russia calculations right now is the Issue of nuclear weapons. Nobody wants to conner the US a in position that their only option is using nuclear weapons but also for the US would be making a huge miscalculating that because China prefer the diplomatic solution to the Taiwan issue they are not willing to set the entire pacific on fire or even a nuclear exchange.
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China has indeed behaved in a very peaceful and friendly manner in the past, but a nation is not a human being; if necessary, China will certainly break away from its past image of peace. Furthermore, Japan’s economy is currently very fragile, and its pursuit of nuclear weapons could trigger a severe economic crisis; every action Japan takes comes at a cost.
There are so many set ups for jokes (Canada, aviation incompetence, fuel expenses) that I don’t know which one to make. I concede defeat.
If only this could happen for every plane full of Indians heading towards Canada...
It seems this guy has suddenly bought into the whole Nippon/Yamato “Rising Sun” fantasy.
What I cannot reconcile is the claim that China will collapse from demographic decline while Japan—with a population under 200 million—somehow sails through unscathed and even contains China on the periphery thanks to its mysterious “allies.” Which allies? What superior technology are we talking about?
Japan’s long survival has far more to do with the fact that its continental neighbors simply had no interest in an isolated island that historically contributed nothing of real value. Name one meaningful innovation or cultural export from ancient Yamato that dynastic China or Goguryeo/Joseon Korea ever adopted—I’m still waiting.
Many Chinese today have swallowed the myth of Japan as an inherently advanced civilization, a story deliberately promoted during the Meiji period to appeal to Han nationalists who never accepted the Manchu Qing as legitimate rulers. Tough luck. Had we not been tearing ourselves apart internally, and had that pivotal Ming general not opened the gates to let the Manchus march on Beijing unopposed, history might have taken a very different turn. But who knows.
One thing is certain: should Japan ever move toward nuclear weapons, neither the CPC nor the Chinese public will tolerate it. Beijing would have no choice but to crush that program—by total economic strangulation if possible, or by force if necessary.
If you watch some more of his videos he explains his process. He basically predicts things based on history and game theory, and he says he'll throw out a lot of predictions based on these things, then reassess the underlying assumptions based on whether they come true or not. He's made it clear in the past that he's not trying to be a prophet, he's just doing constant hypothesis testing.
I find his analysis interesting, his recent video about the role of Epstein was pretty fascinating for example. However, based on things he talks about which I do know quite a bit more about, such as military related matters, I can tell that he's not an expert on everything. I try not to fall for the Gell-Mann amnesia effect, so I assume that he probably makes a lot of mistakes in areas that I'm not that well versed in such as religion, elite politics, etc. as well. As such, my advice would be just to look at his videos as interesting takes, perhaps even see it as he does, just a bunch of hypotheses being tested.
When I saw Maikeru's post to which FairAndUnbiased replied, my initial thought was "Well, hanjians gonna hanjian," but then I decided to look up other reports on TP-Link and its "distancing" from China. I found these two articles particularly informative:
(Bloomberg, April 2025)
(The Wire China, January 2025)
Here are the key facts as I understand them:
(1) The original TP-Link was founded in Shenzhen in 1996 by brothers Zhao Jianjun (aka Jeffrey Chao, the guy applying for a US "Trump Gold Card" visa) and Zhao Jiaxing (aka Cliff Chao). I'll call that company TPL-China.
(2) In 2008, TPL-China set up a US subsidiary, which I'll call TPL-US. TPL-US's actual name is currently TP-Link Systems. *This* is the company of which Jeffrey Chao is the purported "founder," in the item linked by Maikeru above.
(3) In 2021, the Zhao/Chao brothers started formally separating TPL-US from TPL-China. In May 2024, the separation was complete. Previously, Jianjun/Jeffrey and Jiaxing/Cliff each owned almost 49% of TPL-China (almost 98% together). Afterwards, Jiaxing owned almost 98% of TPL-China and Jianjun owned 0%, while owning 100% of TPL-US.
(4) TPL-US continues to maintain substantial R&D and manufacturing operations in China. From the April 2025 Bloomberg article I linked above:
The crown jewel of [Jeffrey Chao's] remaining operations in China is Shenzhen Lianzhou International Technology Co. Ltd. — the massive research, development and manufacturing arm that has attracted Chinese government support and that continues to power [TPL-US] despite the reorganization.
Lianzhou's Chengdu unit is now building a large engineering facility there. [TPL-US] said the project is expected to cost around $180 million and that the decision to proceed was made before the US pivot....
In addition, Lianzhou's Dongguan unit remains a manufacturing hub for [TPL-US]. While the company has said products imported into the US are made in a factory it owns in Vietnam, trade data and Chinese-language corporate materials indicate the facility is effectively a final assembly point. [TPL-US] confirmed that, aside from components bought in Vietnam that account for 0.5% of the total value of inputs to the plant there, all other components are imported from China.
*****
Now for some spin on the facts from the April 2025 Bloomberg article: According to the article, the Zhao/Chao brothers claim that the separation of TPL-US from TPL-China resulted from a falling-out between them in 2021 ("coincidentally," I note, while US witch hunts against Chinese companies and technology were ramping up).
There are also details like this:
[Jeffrey Chao] joined Mariners Church, a nondenominational congregation in Irvine where he was baptized last year and said he's found faith after being raised atheist in China. He hopes to reunite with Cliff here one day, too.
"In the future I hope we become closer," he said. "He really likes to go to those big mountains here in the United States to take pictures," he said, removing his glasses to wipe away more tears. "I hope I can be with him on those trips."
******
So is Zhao Jianjun/Jeffrey Chao really a hanjian? Or is he simply in *deep cover* as a hanjian, while he and his brother continue to work together behind the scenes and laugh all the way to the bank?
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The person does not know anything about GCC. GCC decline will destroy economies of India/Pakistan/ Turkey and so many others. It will be these countries responsibility/interests to take care of Iran if they want to survive. Iran is gone not to return because the Europe that made it where it is now will be in accelerated decline.
GCC can crash Gold and world stock prices where exposure of Europe/India and Turkey is exceedingly huge because they are recent buyers. GCC reminded the importance of Oil/Gas. they havent deployed Soft Power yet so cannot say the impact.
Didn't some IJA general in WW2 say that Japanese were the most resilient because they were able to survive off grass? Well, I'd say it time (again) to put that to the test.