Tucker Carlson finally made a realist comment about China (that i've seen). I remember he was a long time china hawk while at fox. Then turned "russia" is not our enemy for a bit.
These are his points
1. Iran war: prolonged attrition like Ukraine; oil to $200/barrel, energy/food shortages worldwide.
2. Accelerates deindustrialization, remilitarization, mercantilism (self-sufficient chains).
3. Japan highly resilient, likely nuclear power; South Korea precarious but hardworking.
4. China heavily impacted by energy imports, pushes for quick ceasefire but stays non-interventionist.
5. GCC loses prosperity mirage; Iran devastated yet may control Hormuz for revenue.
6. Israel advances Greater Israel; war exposes US limits, may force ME withdrawal.
7. Trump advice: pursue new multipolar order via dialogue with Russia/China/Iran.
8. West faces cultural replacement via immigration; elites abandon classics, hostile to own civilization.
Japan will become a nuclear nation one day. I do agreed with him on this one because after reading what people said here that China will not use military on any occasions (except if Taiwan developing nukes or declare independence), Japan is free to develop nuclear weapons. No sanctions will stop them because they have allies and partners to back them up