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9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
America has no good options here. They failed to collapse the Iranian government on the initial strike so they're left with either escalating (and likely losing midterms due to oil prices) or pulling out (and admitting defeat)

Everybody is gonna get hit economically but China will come out on top because they're dominating renewables
I heard thousands of US troops died but Trump is hiding the real numbers?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
But if the other economies of Asia and the European economies are put in dire straits due to the oil crisis- I would expect a decreased demand for Chinese exports.

When Europe suffered an energy price shock in 2022, what happened was European production shut down and was replaced by more Chinese imports.

We'll probably see something similar happen if the disruptions last.

And we can already see wholesale electricity prices increase significantly in the past week in Japan and South Korea for example.
 

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
I like the guy's videos but I think he was a CIA agent

Sometimes I like his videos, often they are not that interesting.

What I would like to say is that he is not CIA. Not sure where that ever came from.

That Stubstack article said that Yale had a lot of CIA recruits. But so what! The school I went to in Canada had a professor in the East Asian Department specializing in Chinese history, who was a recruiter for the CIA. They only recruit graduate students. I was not a graduate student, but had friends.

This I know because of secondary information. That Professor had a wife, but also a girlfriend, one of his grad students. She told someone I knew who he also worked for. Also, the alleged student he tried to recruit from China, said that as much in conversation. So the CIA is kind of like everywhere.

This story I never wrote up on the internet, because, like who cares?!

Like who cares right.

That Jewish professor eventually divorced his wife to live with his graduate student girlfriend, who knows maybe they lived happily ever after. Everyone else, who cares, no one was recruited or turned, and we graduated and had to get on with the rest of our lives.

Prof Jiang is not CIA.

What does CIA also does? CIA always rely on FUD - fear, uncertainty, doubt.

Go to any pro-China TikTok account, and read the comments. Straight out of the CIA manual those anti-China comments, all about FUD.

So back to Prof Jiang. He just does not discuss China much at all. He talks about a lot of other people, and the FUD is heaped on the West half the time he has his mouth open.

So I don't get it.

The CIA does not do FUD operations on itself. Just go look at TikTok comments and we can spot the FUD operation after while. Then it gets repetitive.

If Prof Jiang is engaged in a FUD operation, then that is directed against the West and not China. So no. He's not CIA!

:D
 

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now, we can argue the case, that Prof Jiang is actually CIA, like that Jewish Chinese history professor in the school I went to, and he is there in China to act as a screener, telling Langley who to recruit, when those high school students go over to America to study.

That is another reason he is not CIA! He would be too exposed if he tired that. These are teenagers we are talking about. What do these punk kids know?

That Jewish Chinese history professor, if he tried to recruit a Chinese graduate student and they say no, then nothing is really going to happen to him. Life goes on. No one exposed.

So, Prof Jiang is not spreading an anti-China FUD campaign, unlike some people on the internet who came from China originally, and he is in no position to recruit for the CIA.

Like, you know, Prof Jiang being CIA is a really far-fetch to the point of make believe. Besides, he is too much of a loose cannon. That is what I noticed about people. People who act like lawyers, have something to hide, such as secrets or privileged information from their clients. Prof Jiang does not act like a lawyer, far from it.

We should watch how some actually ex-CIA people behave, they chose their words very carefully. Prof Jiang says whatever he wants. He has freedom, and not CIA secrecy and restraint.

Just a guy who likes his job.

:D
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Good read espacially after the ills that the world is facing right now
Think there's a built in control mechanism, where the governments gets more power in the distribution of ever more limited resources to their populations. Which will in turn lead to those favoured by the government getting more power, creating a feedback loop where the governments dogmas are strengthened - generally in favour of further constraining available resources.

Can't say whether this is intentional or some kind of "evolutionary" selection of ideas.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you’re both right on the narrow fuel math, but that’s exactly why I don’t see this as “just” a Gulf supply issue. The interesting question is who this situation structurally traps, and that’s where China comes in.Yes, ASEAN is the weakest link on sheer days‑of‑cover.

Most Southeast Asian states are sitting on roughly 1–3 months of stocks, while Japan/Korea are closer to 200–240 days when you add public + commercial. That means a prolonged Hormuz disruption hits ASEAN first and hardest; no argument there.But China is not a free energy backstop; it’s in the same chokehold.

China imports approx 1–12 mb/d of crude, over half of it from the Gulf, and most of that flows through the same Hormuz–Malacca corridor everyone else depends on. In a real multi‑month crisis, Beijing is scrambling to cover its own transport and industry, drawing down its SPR, and bidding against India/Japan/Korea for non‑Gulf barrels. It can drip some barrels to Vietnam or others “at a price,” but it’s not sitting safely onshore while ASEAN drowns. That’s why I read the Iran war as a China story underneath the Iran/Israel story.

Look at who actually gets squeezed hardest by a hot Hormuz:China + ASEAN + Japan + Korea are far more dependent on those sea‑lanes than the US is. ASEAN has turned into China’s biggest export market and key manufacturing platform. China has been trying to deepen its role in West Asia (including brokering the Iran–Saudi détente) to reduce its reliance on US‑centric markets and security. If you put that together, a sustained Iran/Gulf crisis doesn’t just “hurt everyone.” It specifically undermines China’s energy security, its ASEAN pivot, and its new diplomatic inroads in the Gulf.Meanwhile, who sits on the real leverage?

The US and its allies still dominate blue‑water control over Hormuz and Malacca, and the dollar system that clears the bulk of oil trade. That doesn’t make a Gulf war costless for Washington—far from it—but it does mean the relative pain is tilted toward Beijing and its Asian partners. So to me the deeper play isn’t “ASEAN suffers, so production goes back to China.” It’s more like: an Iran‑centric crisis is being used (consciously or not) to put China back in a box—by threatening its energy lifeline, rattling its main growth corridor (ASEAN+West Asia), and reminding everyone that ultimate control of the choke points still lives with the US Navy, not with Beijing.

You can argue how deliberate that is, but structurally the Iran war looks a lot more like a move in the US–China game than a standalone spat over Iran’s nukes.

From a transport perspective, China currently has capacity to produce about 20 million electric cars per year.
If used as taxicabs, that could replace 200 million private cars on the roads.

Then you've got electric buses and electric truck production as well.

China's (electrified) railway system will also see a lot more use.

---

But if there is a prolonged oil shock, 20 million electric cars annually won't be anywhere near enough.
We'd probably see all of China's existing automobile factories switch to electric vehicles and potentially reach 50 million vehicles per year.

At the same time, demand for combustion engines vehicles will collapse globally.
The big automakers in South Korea and Japan would be particularly hard hit, and we'd probably see bankruptcy and the collapse of their automakers

We'd end up with a situation where China makes a significant majority of all cars in the world, and an export boom comprising Chinese electric vehicles.

---

Then we have Chinese solar.

Looks like there are 3.5 million tonnes of polysilicon capacity in China. Of that, 2.4 million tonnes is unutilised and could produce 600GW of solar panels. Depending on location that would be 600-900TWh of additional electricity generation.

---

The thing is, other countries would struggle to deploy the required infrastructure (solar + charging points+ electricity grid + batteries) like China is already doing. So we'd probably see electrification elsewhere lagging behind China.

---

On manufacturing, all countries are going to suffer from high oil/gas prices.

But it looks like coal to olefin plants in China are competitive against Natural Gas from the Middle East.
 

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
Sometimes I like his videos, often they are not that interesting.

What I would like to say is that he is not CIA. Not sure where that ever came from.

That Stubstack article said that Yale had a lot of CIA recruits. But so what! The school I went to in Canada had a professor in the East Asian Department specializing in Chinese history, who was a recruiter for the CIA. They only recruit graduate students. I was not a graduate student, but had friends.

This I know because of secondary information. That Professor had a wife, but also a girlfriend, one of his grad students. She told someone I knew who he also worked for. Also, the alleged student he tried to recruit from China, said that as much in conversation. So the CIA is kind of like everywhere.

This story I never wrote up on the internet, because, like who cares?!

Like who cares right.

That Jewish professor eventually divorced his wife to live with his graduate student girlfriend, who knows maybe they lived happily ever after. Everyone else, who cares, no one was recruited or turned, and we graduated and had to get on with the rest of our lives.

Prof Jiang is not CIA.

What does CIA also does? CIA always rely on FUD - fear, uncertainty, doubt.

Go to any pro-China TikTok account, and read the comments. Straight out of the CIA manual those anti-China comments, all about FUD.

So back to Prof Jiang. He just does not discuss China much at all. He talks about a lot of other people, and the FUD is heaped on the West half the time he has his mouth open.

So I don't get it.

The CIA does not do FUD operations on itself. Just go look at TikTok comments and we can spot the FUD operation after while. Then it gets repetitive.

If Prof Jiang is engaged in a FUD operation, then that is directed against the West and not China. So no. He's not CIA!

:D
So Jiang is a Chinese spy.
 
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