The obvious and only conclusions that could be drawn at this point is that these extrajudicial executions are effectively policy.
The swiftness and consistency of things going from nothing to execution is impossible for anyone targeted to have any realistic chance to de-escalate once you are targeted. One second you are recording and talking, the next you are dogpiled, pistol whipped from all angles and pumped full of bullets within seconds.
With RoE like this, deaths are inevitable. And with the administration making zero efforts to rein in this behaviour when they could have easily gone with the standardised ‘bad apples’ excuse means that this behaviour is at a minimum condemned, if not outright encouraged.
That tracks with the broader purpose of ICE as Trump and MAGA’s personal paramilitary enforcers.
The goals of so blatantly using ICE in such a way is multifaceted.
Firstly, it is meant to intimidate and set examples to cow the masses. Behave, fall in line or we unleash the ICEtapo on you and turn your neighbourhood into legal kill zones where ICE can execute anyone who they don’t like the look of at any time with impunity. With an environment like that, it’s easier to keep your head down and look the other way.
Secondly, it secures the loyalty of ICE through such open displays of patronage by Trump, as well as through complicity in his crimes. It’s not so easy to turn your back on Trump and walk away if there is a real risk you will be hauled in front of a court alongside him.
One of the worst things, and the most likely thing that the democrats will do as things like this keep happening is make a big song and dance about holding ICE agents personally responsible for their actions by stripping them of their professional immunity. That will fire up their base, but it will also cement ICE’s loyalty to Trump.
I do not personally think a new American Civil War is imminent for many reasons. But Trump and his cliche are absolutely laying the foundations for seizing power and ending democracy, just so long as Trump can hold his nerve and doesn’t TACO at the last, which is also a real possibility. And with them in control of the national security apparatus, it’s far more likely that they will be able to isolate and eliminate all domestic opponents capable of putting up a serious challenge to their take over that no one will be able to organise enough of an opposition for it be come close to being a civil war. It will be one giant series of purges and lethal SWAT raids and ‘accidents’.
The only realistic scenario where things does escalate to Civil War is if there is a foreign state level actor willing and able to foster the opposition into open rebellion and provide enough material support that this opposition survives long enough to attract enough followers to achieve critical mass instead of being crushed after the first battle.
Ironically, the EU/NATO is actually the only viable entity able to act as this foreign support. Russia and China might have the material means and the will to support such a rebellion, but most Americans are too thoroughly trained to view both as the enemy for any movement openly supported by them to achieve grassroots acceptance. A American government in exile in Europe would be far more attractive to far more ordinary Americans. This may by the reason why Trump is so hell bent on undermining and even dismantling NATO.