Chinese nuclear experts believe Japan could build nuclear weapons in less than 3 years
Late US statesman Henry Kissinger’s dire warning about Tokyo aiming to become a nuclear power by 2028 is being re-examined by Beijing
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One of Henry Kissinger’s final and most sobering predictions before his death was that Japan would eventually pursue nuclear weapons.
In a 2023 interview with The Economist, Kissinger warned that Japan was “heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years”.
Chinese nuclear experts estimate that Japan has the political motivation but also the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons in less than three years, echoing Kissinger’s warning that Japan harbours ambitions to revive its pre-war military stature when the opportunity arises.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi touched upon the red line of Japan’s three non-nuclear principles last month, seeking to create a legal opening.
Last week, a senior official from the Japanese prime minister’s office responsible for advising Takaichi on security policy told Asahi Shimbun that given the increasingly severe security environment around Japan, he believed “Japan should possess nuclear weapons”.
However, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara reaffirmed on December 18 that the country’s decades-old pledge to never possess nuclear weapons by stating that its nuclear policy had not changed.
Despite this, most nuclear experts say Japan is in a state of “nuclear latency” – meaning that while it does not now deploy nuclear weapons, it could cross the threshold in a short time to produce deployable nuclear arms.
“The principles of nuclear weapons can be understood even by high school students. Countries like North Korea, India and Pakistan have managed to develop them,” a nuclear scientist from western China said.
“Technically speaking, Japan possesses sufficient industrial capacity to build even more advanced nuclear weapons than these countries in a short time. Moreover, Japan has stockpiled enough nuclear fuel under the pretext of civilian nuclear power.”
There is speculation that Japan already has two nuclear bombs, according to the expert, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.
“If they dare to pursue nuclear weapons, that number could grow to three or four. And nowadays, the yield of just one tactical nuclear weapon is 10 times that of the two bombs they once received,” he said.
“However, the price Japan would pay for developing nuclear weapons would be far greater than for North Korea, India or Pakistan, because Japan is a defeated nation.”
A Beijing-based nuclear expert noted the key difference between nuclear weapons and nuclear power: while power relied on a controlled reaction, weapons were uncontrolled.
“Japan has enough nuclear material, like plutonium, to build a weapon, and likely the technology for enriched uranium, though US approval could be a factor,” she said.
Kissinger’s prediction “is technically possible”, she added.
Another expert said that a main challenge for Japan was to develop suitable delivery vehicles. Obtaining highly enriched uranium could be difficult to carry out under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It would “need to be done covertly”, he said.
Japan has relevant technical reserves in terms of raw materials, manufacturing technology and delivery methods, according to openly available information.
It is also the only country in the world with a complete nuclear fuel cycle system but no nuclear weapons. According to data released by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission in August, Japan’s total separated plutonium amounted to about 44.4 tonnes, with 8.6 tonnes stored domestically and 35.8 tonnes held in Britain and France.
Although this plutonium is not weapons grade, Japan has sophisticated refining ability. Given that only about 8kg (17lbs) of plutonium is needed to make a nuclear bomb, the domestic stockpile alone is more than enough.
Due to Japan’s limited territory, it cannot conduct explosive tests in remote desert areas as China and the US have. However, modern nuclear weapons development can rely on more advanced and discreet “testing” methods.
The United States signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 1996, and although it has never been ratified by the US Congress, the country has not conducted nuclear explosive tests since then.
In May last year, the US conducted a subcritical test in Nevada, using explosives to compress nuclear material to the brink of a chain reaction to observe changes. Since no actual nuclear explosion occurred, the test drew little attention, and the collected data could be fed into supercomputers for research.
Japan is not lacking in computing resources either – its Fugaku supercomputer ranks high on the Top500 list. Using similar methods, Japan could conduct simulated explosion tests.
Japan’s Gekko XII laser facility in Osaka can compress fuel pellets with lasers for civilian nuclear fusion research – a process similar in principle to the secondary implosion stage of a hydrogen bomb explosion.
A warhead also needs a delivery platform. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Epsilon rocket is designed as a solid-fuel rocket, which offers faster response times compared to liquid-fuel rockets that require pre-fuelling – characteristics typical of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Although its improved Epsilon-S model has recently faced difficulties, the Epsilon can deliver a 1.2-tonne payload into low-Earth orbit. If a satellite were replaced with a nuclear warhead and guidance systems were modified, it could potentially be used for long-range nuclear strikes.
Japan is also improving its Type 12 cruise missile, equipped with a combined guidance system using GPS, terrain matching and terminal active radar. An updated version of the missile will have a range of about 1,000km (620 miles).
Japan has also bought US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of around 1,600km for ship-based deployment, which together would form a complementary long-range strike system.
On December 22, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded to recent remarks from Japanese officials about potentially acquiring nuclear weapons. He stated that China was alarmed by these comments, calling them a threat to regional peace and a direct challenge to the global nuclear non-proliferation system.
Lin urged Japan to honour its international and legal commitments and to immediately stop any move towards the wrong path of nuclear armament.
In his 2023 interview, Kissinger denied that Japan had any intention of being a permanent part of the global multilateral system. Many geopolitical analysts have interpreted this remark as suggesting that Japan may seek to revive its pre-war military ambitions when conditions become favourable.
As the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, Japan is a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but has never signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the comprehensive multilateral agreement to ban nuclear weapons entirely.
At present, the IAEA’s oversight of Japan’s nuclear materials, the Japanese government’s official commitment to the three non-nuclear principles and domestic public opinion remain key factors in maintaining the status quo.
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