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TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
Eventine said:
The thing is, China is not as strong as you (and unfortunately many others) presume. Let us not forget the US & its vassals are still 50% of the world’s GDP and that China’s manufacturing share is only 30% or so of the world’s total. It is not as dominant as often portrayed. Individually China maybe the strongest country, but collectively it can’t take on the entirety of the US empire.

So the reality is that China cannot just stoke the fires of conflict and give reason for the US & its vassals to unite in common purpose. Japan is actually one of the countries China was trying to go neutral on Taiwan, and under its previous prime minister there were signs that Japan might actually be receptive.

Unfortunately in came the right wing chicken hawk who exploited the party’s in fighting to assume leadership. She’s certainly torpedoed relations, but I think the Chinese leadership still assumes she’s a flash in the pan and that the next Japanese leader will be more mature & reasonable. Hence starting small with the sticks so as to not alienate every last Japanese leader and make it impossible for a dove to mend relations.

The only way to beat the US empire in the long term is divide & conquer. You don’t want them putting aside their differences and uniting against you with half the world.

China is strong but not THAT strong.
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My two cents is that, there's on paper strength and how effectively one mobilizes that strength. I'm not even being sanguine here, these past few years have given us glimpses of the capacity of the US to both coordinate its allies in response to crisis and the capacity of its own allies to pick up the slack when the US is absent. I think when it comes to Europe the results are as clear as day. They lack the war production capacity and the will to unify in response to a crisis on its own friggin doorstep. The conflict is not even far off, as Russian FSB agents have been operating in Europe and drones occasionally violate the airspace of NATO nations, but Europe still can't agree on how to respond and is ever beholden to electorates who think little of the geopolitical consequences of the war and would rather focus on cost of living, housing, and migration. And that's militarily speaking, on the economic front they've essentially all but admitted defeat against China.

And going against the grain, I do believe the temperature from India has been toned down significantly. They no doubt would take advantage of the situation if they sensed China was losing, but considering that since the Bangladesh coup India does not have a single friend in its neighborhood anymore, its hands are tied.

Imo, the only US allies that it could fully count on joining in a China contingency without question are Aus, Japan, and the Philippines. Even South Korea, despite all the hoopla about netizens from both countries having beef over Hanbok and Kimchi, mostly remains neutral on China issues and has North Korea to keep their hands tied.

And then there's the US itself, where around the globe it has the bigger military than China, but around the globe being the operative words since China was always going to engage the US's pacific operations rather than its whole military, which from the looks of it can become bogged down in Latin America pretty soon.

Obviously, China won't go bum rushing into conflict. Either way you cut it wars are expensive and would throw a wrench into Chinese economic development, the government's number one priority to the Chinese nation. But if things did come to blows, I would say the playing field is a little more level than one would believe.
 
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Comac 919

Just Hatched
Registered Member
China is definitely punching below it's weight relative to both it's economic and military capabilities. I think that much is clear.

You don't become a respectable world power by 'being responsible', 'showing restraint', and 'adhering international law' religiously. No world power became a world power by doing those things. The only law is that of the jungle.

I'm not saying China should go in guns blazing, but doing military exercises off your own coast is like...what. Japan has basically went back on the founding principles of the resumption of China-Japan relations back in 1972, which is that Taiwan is part of China. China should have at least recalled it's ambassador to Japan by now.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Comac 919 said:
China is definitely punching below it's weight relative to both it's economic and military capabilities. I think that much is clear.

You don't become a respectable world power by 'being responsible', 'showing restraint', and 'adhering international law' religiously. No world power became a world power by doing those things. The only law is that of the jungle.

I'm not saying China should go in guns blazing, but doing military exercises off your own coast is like...what. Japan has basically went back on the founding principles of the resumption of China-Japan relations back in 1972, which is that Taiwan is part of China. China should have at least recalled it's ambassador to Japan by now.
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You know world powers don't start swinging heavily like the US until the battle is won. China is very careful because the world is still Western-centric. The US became what it became after it was the world's strongest power and it let that power go to its head. Any challenging superpower knows to thread lightly and think about every step when it recognizes that the situation merits serious consideration. If you are stronger than you throw yourself around to be, you are on course; if you are as strong as you throw yourself to be, you are on the edge but fine, but the instant you throw yourself around too much before you are ready to back it all up with hard power, everything can collapse on you. China is careful not to make that mistake.

Also, Japan requested that China recall this ambassador because after Takaichi's comments, he was the first to respond by calling for chopping off Japan's filthy head if it sticks its neck out over Taiwan. We refused. He's there now to show Chinese defiance, not as a symbol of friendship or cooperation anymore.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Comac 919 said:
China is definitely punching below it's weight relative to both it's economic and military capabilities. I think that much is clear.

You don't become a respectable world power by 'being responsible', 'showing restraint', and 'adhering international law' religiously. No world power became a world power by doing those things. The only law is that of the jungle.

I'm not saying China should go in guns blazing, but doing military exercises off your own coast is like...what. Japan has basically went back on the founding principles of the resumption of China-Japan relations back in 1972, which is that Taiwan is part of China. China should have at least recalled it's ambassador to Japan by now.
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China is addicted to keeping its head down and making money. Its certainly practical to focus on increasing GDP at all cost, cause they can always pursue geopolitical objectives later when they are richer and more powerful. But this approach also tends to make China look weak and people make fun of China's red lines.

I think the recent rare earth ban did wake up its opponents a little bit. This is the first time China really went head to head in strength and resolve. They never were this bold before.

Let's hope China doesn't give up against Japan and keeps going until japan is severely suffering economically.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
manqiangrexue said:
Also, Japan requested that China recall this ambassador because after Takaichi's comments, he was the first to respond by calling for chopping off Japan's filthy head if it sticks its neck out over Taiwan. We refused. He's there now to show Chinese defiance, not as a symbol of friendship or cooperation anymore.
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I wanna go back to this point because it was nothing but a passing thought before but Bent Back Kanae came to China offering for Takaichi to probably offer some public half-measure, although directly targeted, at climbing down from her statements on a Taiwan conflict (she probably cannot do a full apology as that would be political suicide) if China would recall Xue Jian for his comments. They tried to imply that China should save face by recalling him or Japan will expel him. China's refusal challenged Japan to expel him if they dared, but Japan folded and with that, it means that Japan must live with the insult of continuing to host a foreign diplomat who threatened to cut the head off of his host. Most painful indeed; if any diplomat were to make such a threat against China in China, we would probably have him expelled, deported, sanctioned and removed so fast he'd need someone else to send his things to him back home.

And upon closer look, Xue Jian is not the ambassador to Japan but I guess with Japan folding on him, China did not increase the pressure by recalling Chinese or expelling Japanese diplomats. That would be kept in reserve should Xue Jian face issues in Japan.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
AssassinsMace said:

Macron is going to China shortly? China owes Europe because it benefitted from globalization? China has been trading with the world longer than the West tried to conquer it. How about Europe owes everyone because they raped the world to be where they’re at? China has to hand over its technology as payment. What’s really the point when it comes down to what does China get? If there was a legitimate offer that would be front and center not trying spin the West’s rape of the world as something good that happened.
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Gee, I wonder what incredibly important non-retarded things Macron has come to say...
1764741348875.png
"Can u plz betray russia fr us; ur future is with EU. Also, plz build EV factory in EU so we cn steal. Thkz"
 
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4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:

Macron is going to China shortly? China owes Europe because it benefitted from globalization? China has been trading with the world longer than the West tried to conquer it. How about Europe owes everyone because they raped the world to be where they’re at? China has to hand over its technology as payment. What’s really the point when it comes down to what does China get? If there was a legitimate offer that would be front and center not trying spin the West’s rape of the world as something good that happened.
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It's another one of those, "Do something for us. We have nothing to offer you, but we will still criticize you and try to counter your moves." I get that it's purely for domestic audiences, but it's just such a dumb way to do diplomacy.

tamsen_ikard said:
China is addicted to keeping its head down and making money. Its certainly practical to focus on increasing GDP at all cost, cause they can always pursue geopolitical objectives later when they are richer and more powerful. But this approach also tends to make China look weak and people make fun of China's red lines.

I think the recent rare earth ban did wake up its opponents a little bit. This is the first time China really went head to head in strength and resolve. They never were this bold before.

Let's hope China doesn't give up against Japan and keeps going until japan is severely suffering economically.
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Do you feel that the West has really waken up because of the rare earths thing? If they did, then they'd be making concrete steps in building their own rare earths supply chain and moving heaven and earth to see it happen. So far, all we got is that some politicians saying that China is being a meanie and they have to do something about it, but rare earths aren't all that rare. The real wake up call will happen when they realize that the MIC has run out of critical materials and they're years to decades away from developing their own supply.

For the Japan thing, it's just about everything that China can hope for. They get to bully Japan at a time when Japan has no friends, and China gets to hide behind the UN Charter at the same time. Hell, China is even bringing up the legality of Okinawa's status. When has China ever done anything like this?
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
In case anyone else gets the "China is all alone in the dispute against Japan" feel and don't believe me when I say Takaichi is using bots:

Screenshot_20251203_173606_YouTube.jpg
2000-4000 yen for each YouTube video supporting Japan and/or criticizing China

Now that's a good use of taxpayer money, I hope the high rice price was worth it.
 
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