Miscellaneous News

lych470

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
jiajia99 said:
Well does China need to conduct an offensive in a way that the USA understands or not? I mean a nation with 4000+ of history should have enough experience to attack in ways that the USA cannot begin to understand. It’s the job of this few hundred year old nation to either put up or simply STFU. They started this fight, and if they lose, they need to be absolutely prepared to suffer, there is not middle ground since the USA refuses to give China any. China will take it all and the USA well if it ends up in an apocalyptic situation, can be left to deal with it, hopefully with some grace
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"Violence is the only language they understand" - R. F. Kuang
 
lych470

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chevalier said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980982880273834008

im just surprised the Swedes still have a defence industry after the F35 debacle where the U.S. expected everyone to subsidise its own military industrial complex. Having said that, Sweden is really really close with Ukraine for historical reasons And Ukrainian refugees receive privileges in Sweden such as free metro travel.
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Who's footing the bill?

"The financing of the procurement could come via frozen Russian assets held in Western countries and from allied nations in the coalition of the willing, but there was still significant work to be done before a final deal is signed, Kristersson said."

So... drum up the good stories first, never deliver later? Ukraine is broke, and good luck for the "Coalition of the Willing" to part money lol.
 
I

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
An American think tank has just created a 6,000 word plan on how to overcome China's rare earth dominance
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980713276401934465

Their plan rests on "4 pillars":
  1. Rewarding competition and innovation
  2. Strengthening relationships with allies
  3. Creating certainty in the permitting process
  4. Avoiding putting national security-motivated American export controls on the negotiating table and instead de-escalating in the trade domain
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In other words, they plan on getting someone else to do it.
 
R

Ringsword

Senior Member
Registered Member
E

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Then those vessels should also suffer as they must. Just like Europe is finding out about Nexperia right now.

They choose to make their own beds like that, now they must lie in them. For centuries, they don't remember what FAFO means - Time to help them recall.

In the meantime, China must go on the absolute offensive across the rest of the world now. No more time and space for them to remain conservative and reserved anymore.
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The Trump administration is banking on the idea that it is easier for the rest of the world to replace what China makes than for the rest of the world to replace what the US makes - e.g. rare earth mines and refineries can be stood up (at cost) for the industries that need them, but US software (which would include Windows, Google Search, Android, iOS, hardware device drivers, etc.) will be much harder to replace. Countries would be told that, if they want continued access to any US software, they would need to cut China off from trade.

This is probably the greatest leverage the US actually does have, since its software ecosystem does dominate the world. I've mentioned this many times before - the US is a financial and software super power. Google Search and Microsoft Bing controls about 95% of ALL global search. Similarly for operating systems like iOS and Android. It is the one industry where US dominance is at the level of Chinese dominance in rare earths, so it makes perfect sense for Trump to use it as leverage in the extra-territorial sanctions game.

But of course, just like with China and rare earths, you get to play this card only once. Once you play it, the resultant economic devastation will set off a trend of "de-risking" from US software that could permanently cripple its dominance. What's more, the software industry makes up a MUCH larger share of the US economy than rare earths does the Chinese economy, so the financial impact to the US could be devastating.

The real question, though, is how much the rest of the world stands to gain from siding with the US vs. China. The intimidation tactic here is essentially a bluff: if the Global South falls in line with the US then this move would be equivalent to the US telling the rest of the world "you can't trade with China" and them saying "okay." China would be isolated and that could cause severe consequences for its living standards and industrial development, as what would follow soon after - if the US got the Global South to agree - is probably a resources embargo (iron ore, minerals, food, etc.) It'd be like turning into North Korea.

But that's why it's a bluff. The US wants China to fear this outcome, but there isn't confidence that the Global South will actually follow through. If the alternative happens, where the Global South decides that it'd rather just replace US software, or operate separate software ecosystems, then it's the US and its close allies that will become North Korea. This is why it is the nuclear option. Once it is out, there is no coming back.
 
I

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Eventine said:
The Trump administration is banking on the idea that it is easier for the rest of the world to replace what China makes than for the rest of the world to replace what the US makes - e.g. rare earth mines and refineries can be stood up (at cost) for the industries that need them, but US software (which would include Windows, Google Search, Android, iOS, hardware device drivers, etc.) will be much harder to replace. Countries would be told that, if they want continued access to any US software, they would need to cut China off from trade.

This is probably the greatest leverage the US actually does have, since its software ecosystem does dominate the world. I've mentioned this many times before - the US is a financial and software super power. Google Search and Microsoft Bing controls about 95% of ALL global search. Similarly for operating systems like iOS and Android. It is the one industry where US dominance is at the level of Chinese dominance in rare earths, so it makes perfect sense for Trump to use it as leverage in the extra-territorial sanctions game.

But of course, just like with China and rare earths, you get to play this card only once. Once you play it, the resultant economic devastation will set off a trend of "de-risking" from US software that could permanently cripple its dominance. What's more, the software industry makes up a MUCH larger share of the US economy than rare earths does the Chinese economy, so the financial impact to the US could be devastating.

The real question, though, is how much the rest of the world stands to gain from siding with the US vs. China. The intimidation tactic here is essentially a bluff: if the Global South falls in line with the US then this move would be equivalent to the US telling the rest of the world "you can't trade with China" and them saying "okay." China would be isolated and that could cause severe consequences for its living standards and industrial development, as what would follow soon after - if the US got the Global South to agree - is probably a resources embargo (iron ore, minerals, food, etc.) It'd be like turning into North Korea.

But that's why it's a bluff. The US wants China to fear this outcome, but there isn't confidence that the Global South will actually follow through. If the alternative happens, where the Global South decides that it'd rather just replace US software, or operate separate software ecosystems, then it's the US and its close allies that will become North Korea. This is why it is the nuclear option. Once it is out, there is no coming back.
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The fundamental problem with all talk of software is: China has software, whereas America has no RE.
The choices are therefore not between trading with China or having American software, the choices is between: commit economic suicide, or switch to Chinese software.
Americans are betting countries would rather die than use Chinese software, they also believe countries would rather die than to use RMB for trade.
Americans aren't the brightest people
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Eventine said:
The Trump administration is banking on the idea that it is easier for the rest of the world to replace what China makes than for the rest of the world to replace what the US makes - e.g. rare earth mines and refineries can be stood up (at cost) for the industries that need them, but US software (which would include Windows, Google Search, Android, iOS, hardware device drivers, etc.) will be much harder to replace. Countries would be told that, if they want continued access to any US software, they would need to cut China off from trade.

This is probably the greatest leverage the US actually does have, since its software ecosystem does dominate the world. I've mentioned this many times before - the US is a financial and software super power. Google Search and Microsoft Bing controls about 95% of ALL global search. Similarly for operating systems like iOS and Android. It is the one industry where US dominance is at the level of Chinese dominance in rare earths, so it makes perfect sense for Trump to use it as leverage in the extra-territorial sanctions game.

But of course, just like with China and rare earths, you get to play this card only once. Once you play it, the resultant economic devastation will set off a trend of "de-risking" from US software that could permanently cripple its dominance. What's more, the software industry makes up a MUCH larger share of the US economy than rare earths does the Chinese economy, so the financial impact to the US could be devastating.

The real question, though, is how much the rest of the world stands to gain from siding with the US vs. China. The intimidation tactic here is essentially a bluff: if the Global South falls in line with the US then this move would be equivalent to the US telling the rest of the world "you can't trade with China" and them saying "okay." China would be isolated and that could cause severe consequences for its living standards and industrial development, as what would follow soon after - if the US got the Global South to agree - is probably a resources embargo (iron ore, minerals, food, etc.) It'd be like turning into North Korea.

But that's why it's a bluff. The US wants China to fear this outcome, but there isn't confidence that the Global South will actually follow through. If the alternative happens, where the Global South decides that it'd rather just replace US software, or operate separate software ecosystems, then it's the US and its close allies that will become North Korea. This is why it is the nuclear option. Once it is out, there is no coming back.
Click to expand...
You keep on thinking China is the only one taking a hit. If the rest of the world don't use Chinese electronics, they'll have NO electronics to use.
Get off your knees.
 
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