Xi sets out conservative climate goal for China over next decade
China will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by up to 10 per cent and increase renewable energy capacity six-fold within a decade, President Xi Jinping announced in a new climate plan, along with a thinly veiled swipe at the US.
The climate goal was described as “both underwhelming and transformative”, with experts having hoped that the world’s largest emitter and second-biggest economy would set a target at least in the mid-teens.
About twice that level is estimated to be needed to meet a Paris accord objective of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5C above the pre-industrial level.
However, the delivery of the plan by Xi himself was regarded as significant. He called the transition to green energy “the trend of our time” in a video address to the UN climate summit in New York hosted by secretary-general António Guterres and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The summit, attended by delegates from more than 100 countries, came a day after US President Donald Trump said climate change was “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” and attacked the shift to renewable energy globally as a “joke” which was serving China by helping it to export its technology.
Xi sent a contrasting message. “Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time. While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction.”
Xi also called for greater international co-operation on green tech, a sector China dominates but which is being hit by US tariff threats.
The headline target for cutting emissions by 2035 followed months of debate among Xi’s industrial and economic planners as the country also battles deflationary pressures.
China will aim for a 7-10 per cent cut in emissions by 2035 from its peak under the plan, while also increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to more than 30 per cent and boosting solar and wind capacity six-fold from 2020 levels.
The lower-than-hoped-for emissions target over the next ten years also cast doubt on whether China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal previously set out by Xi is achievable.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society, said Beijing had favoured pragmatism, and left a gap in global climate action.
“The headline target disappoints environmentalists and falls short of the climate leadership the world urgently needs,” Li said.
At the same time, he noted that the country had emerged as a clean-tech superpower and this dominant role could still enable it to surpass its targets. “Over time, this could push China towards a more proactive role on the international stage,” he said.
Activist groups were similarly hopeful about the prospect of China exceeding the set goal, as it had often “under-promised and over-delivered,” said Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org. “China’s new climate target is both underwhelming and transformative.”
Based on almost three-quarters of emissions data, China’s 2025 carbon emissions may be flat or lower than 2024, in part because the pace of manufacturing growth has slowed. This has hastened its ability to meet a “peak emissions” goal previously set by Xi for 2030.
By contrast, the US has withdrawn from the UN-led Paris climate accord with Trump having embraced fossil-fuel industries.
The EU has also come until political pressure from nations facing economic constraints and the rise of opposition to green policies.
It failed to agree a binding climate plan to cut greenhouse gases over the next decade in time for the UN general assembly, in a blow to hopes for European leadership. Instead, ministers backed a “statement of intent” to cut emissions by 66.3-72.5 per cent by 2035.
According to Ember, a UK think-tank, China is now by far the biggest investor in clean energy worldwide, with spending of $625bn last year. This amounts to nearly one-third of the global total and is driving dramatic cost falls in renewable energy, electric vehicles and batteries.
Domestically, China’s rapid deployment was driving “a plateau in direct fossil-fuel use across the Chinese economy”, Ember said.
More than 50 countries launched updated climate plans during the UN event in New York. “The science demands action. The law commands it,” Guterres said. “The economics compel it. And people are calling for it.”
