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4Tran

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iewgnem said:
The assumption has been it's a time problem, that assumption has been in place for 15 years, evidently if it's a time problem then the timeframe is a lot longer than most assumed.

The problem here isn't production or technology, it's scale and expectations, the modern 21st century world was built on unlimited access to Chinese industry, people has come to expect having power seats, ABS, phones, etc, they expect to be able to afford it and they take for granted their ability to import parts needed from China. The problem is not the ability for the west build magnet, although that is also a problem for them when it comes to high end ones, even if they develop the technology and build the plants, the size of their industrial base, which derives from population and energy production among other factors, just isn't physically big enough to meet expectations that's shaped by China.

e.g. The ability for a country the size of UK to maintain a 21st century economy without any external trade isn't really a time or technology problem, the only thing they can do is lower expectations

As for China taking advantage, humanoid robots and low altitude economy are both massively reliant on PM motors, each joint in a humanoid robot (or robot dog) is a high pole PM motor, each rotor in a eVTOL is a large PM motor, PM motors are the foundation of modern kinematics, everything that moves needs them. By the time the west start producing their own magnets, and even if they can scale up, China would already have establish an insurmountable lead. This isn't a fixed window opportunity, this is more like breaking the legs of someone in a race, yeah the leg might be able to heal, but the race would be long over by then.
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Who knew that picking a techological war against your trade partner when your own techology base is wholly reliant on materials from said trade partner is a bad idea? I think that a lot of strategists in the West are too caught up thinking of these critical materials as resources. As resources, China is not the sole producer, and it's possible to find them all over the world. The problem with this thinking is that these materials are products. And if you don't have the people, the knowhow, and the factories to produce them, then your only supplier for much of this stuff is China.

What this even worse is that most experts predict 5-10 years before another country can build up their own supply chains. This time frame is a big underestimate. Not so much because of a lack of ability but because of a lack of financial incentive. Back when China was selling these critical materials, the yearly output of them was only valued at a few billion USD. So what this gives us is an industry that costs a lot of effort, and money to establish, and where you even the minimal earnings you get won't start showing upontil 5-10 years after starting. What kind of business would be interested in that kind of project.?
 
leonzzzz

leonzzzz

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AndrewJ

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MortyandRick

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AndrewJ said:
Breaking: At least one Russian A-50 is confirmed hit. Russia's loss is significantly larger than we thought.

New released drone footage indicates more types of aircrafts, including A-50, were confirmed hit. Footage about A-50 is from 1:32.

Is there possibility that RAF now has no available/flyable AEW&C planes? :eek:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930255718373871620
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Apparently it's old A-50 without engines. Not the A-50U

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930304356705866146

daifo said:
1st they went for Harvard, now columbia...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930349107912347720
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Didn't Columbia bend the knee to Trump? Lol so much good that did.

Goes to show, don't relent and give in to trump administration.
 
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