Some random thought on Wednesday after 50% from US and 50% from China.
Oh boy, countries behave like teenage boys.
Finally, we have reached to the point where Trump wanted to do all along since his 1.0 admin, which is total decoupling if he cannot get "enough" concessions. Trump 2.0 admin believe that they can coerce other trading countries into ganging up on China. I don't know what journey we are going to traverse from this point on, because there is no historical precedence of top 2 economies fighting an all-out economic war.
Which country is going to win? I think both are losing. You may argue who is losing less. China is definitely suffering from this trade war. I don't think US is having net gains on the largest industrial economy anytime soon.
Who is going to win? Well, off my head, there are a few names: SMIC, Huawei, BYD, etc. I cannot imaging how Ren zhenfei and Yu Chengdong are laughing all the way to the bank right now.
Who is going to lose? Tesla, GM, Ford, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, MacDonald's, KFC, Starbucks, Apple, etc. I would feel the pain of Musk, because I alway admire him as an entrepreneur. But Tesla losing market share in China at this juncture would be fatal in its long term success.
If what has happened in China for the past 20 years is any guide, from now on, those who keep buying from above names are going to suffer some abuse from Chinese social media. There will be little box office scores for any US movie.
There will be very few Chinese students in the US colleges 5 years from now on. And there will be fewer direct flights between the two countries. It is truly as surreal as the Chinese saying: 三十年河东，三十年河西
Oh boy, countries behave like teenage boys.
Finally, we have reached to the point where Trump wanted to do all along since his 1.0 admin, which is total decoupling if he cannot get "enough" concessions. Trump 2.0 admin believe that they can coerce other trading countries into ganging up on China. I don't know what journey we are going to traverse from this point on, because there is no historical precedence of top 2 economies fighting an all-out economic war.
Which country is going to win? I think both are losing. You may argue who is losing less. China is definitely suffering from this trade war. I don't think US is having net gains on the largest industrial economy anytime soon.
Who is going to win? Well, off my head, there are a few names: SMIC, Huawei, BYD, etc. I cannot imaging how Ren zhenfei and Yu Chengdong are laughing all the way to the bank right now.
Who is going to lose? Tesla, GM, Ford, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, MacDonald's, KFC, Starbucks, Apple, etc. I would feel the pain of Musk, because I alway admire him as an entrepreneur. But Tesla losing market share in China at this juncture would be fatal in its long term success.
If what has happened in China for the past 20 years is any guide, from now on, those who keep buying from above names are going to suffer some abuse from Chinese social media. There will be little box office scores for any US movie.
There will be very few Chinese students in the US colleges 5 years from now on. And there will be fewer direct flights between the two countries. It is truly as surreal as the Chinese saying: 三十年河东，三十年河西
