So to recap:
- 20% for "fentanyl"
- 25% for "any importing Venezuela oil"
- 34% for "reciprocal"
- 50% for "cuz we can"
- 24.3% for previous trade war round 1.0 effective tariff rate
- Total: ~153.3% tariffs.
Beijing should treat this as full-scale economic embargo. ~153% tariffs is effectively economic decoupling and a trade embargo/sanction. That's even higher than what I'd expect in an Taiwan AR situation.
Unironically, I welcome them to go harder.
You mean en European style embargo where they embargo their own life support. A few percentage of export revenue loss seems a pretty small price to pay to see the elimination of China's only strategic rival.
Also there's an important detail in China's export control on rare earth magnets: it's not just against the US, it's global. In other words China already low-key established the mechanism to actually embargo the US from access to any and all manufactured goods regardless if the company tries to produce them in third party countries, e.g if you sell anything to America China doesn't like, you get cuts off from electric motors, or anything else China adds to export control.
China is playing for either unconditional American surrender or annihilation, or as FM already said, China will fight to the end. I don't think Americans or most Chinese has mentally prepared for what that means yet.