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In4ser

Junior Member
Just like China was the only country able to achieve zero-COVID, you will find China is the only country on earth with the political will, industrial power and meritocratic, rational cultural needed to achieve the level of abundance needed to lower time-cost of expectations and solve modern demographic problems.
I hope you're right, but it's typically Asian cultural strengths that are the very reasons why their demographic decline is so pronounced. The reasons highlighted for Korea's demographic decline are the desire for wealth and status, the hyper-competitive nature, and the overemphasis on a work ethic and discipline. China has many of those qualities which allowed it to propel to the top, but its also double-edged.

Just like it is already too late because of years of low birth rate for Korea, even if they can change the fertility rate to 2.1 overnight, China too has had years of the One Child Policy that are not reversible. You cannot materialize millions of 20 and 30-year-olds; the demographic deficit will manifest even if the fertility rate jumps to replacement level today. Having children is not something you can simply will into existence on a large scale; otherwise, other nations would have done it already.

Maybe we can have an artificial womb, but that has its problems, like what kind of society will China be if it starts manufacturing babies on an industrial level with the State as the only real parent? After all, even in that solution, it is the state that wants kids, not necessarily the biological donors.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
I hope you're right, but it's typically Asian cultural strengths that are the very reasons why their demographic decline is so pronounced. The reasons highlighted for Korea's demographic decline are the desire for wealth and status, the hyper-competitive nature, and the overemphasis on a work ethic and discipline. China has many of those qualities which allowed it to propel to the top, but its also double-edged.

Just like it is already too late because of years of low birth rate for Korea, even if they can change the fertility rate to 2.1 overnight, China too has had years of the One Child Policy that are not reversible. You cannot materialize millions of 20 and 30-year-olds; the demographic deficit will manifest even if the fertility rate jumps to replacement level today. Having children is not something you can simply will into existence on a large scale; otherwise, other nations would have done it already.

Maybe we can have an artificial womb, but that has its problems, like what kind of society will China be if it starts manufacturing babies on an industrial level with the State as the only real parent? After all, even in that solution, it is the state that wants kids, not necessarily the biological donors.
China has 1.4 billion people, that's the detail everyone always forgets.

And no most people don't work long hours because they like to work long hours, they do so because the lifestyle they want need money and that money can only be made by working long hours. China is the only one able to solve this because China is the only country where policy focus on abundance and spreading that abundance to everyone, the only one who can actually achieve the needed level of abundance, and the only one where the culture is rational enough to overcome resistance from the rich.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
China has 1.4 billion people, that's the detail everyone always forgets.

And no most people don't work long hours because they like to work long hours, they do so because the lifestyle they want need money and that money can only be made by working long hours. China is the only one able to solve this because China is the only country where policy focus on abundance and spreading that abundance to everyone, the only one who can actually achieve the needed level of abundance, and the only one where the culture is rational enough to overcome resistance from the rich.
Just because you have a greater margin for error does not mean that it will develop a solution, assuming there is even one. If anything it might prolong the malaise of the decline and allow a smaller and less densely populated country like Japan or Korea to recover and adapt much more quickly from their fall. The large size of the Qing Empire made it difficult to enact reforms and modernize while smaller nations were able to change more quickly, like small start-ups vs big conglomerates with technological shifts.

Abundance isn't the main issue, otherwise, third-world nations wouldn't have the highest fertility rates. China had much more fertility when it was poorer and less developed. It's selectiveness. Men who don't want to marry women who don't look like Douyin models and women being hypergameous and disdain lower-status men, and so both don't settle until it's too late. They watch porn, k-pop, anime and romance novels and have unrealistic expectations of life and already live in a high pressure society to succeed. As would be parents who only want the very best for their kids, so instead of just having them, they keep waiting until they feel confident enough either in their career or wealth to do but they never find the right moment. That competitive mindset to outdo each other for status is what creates a societal bottleneck. It creates artificial scarcity of space and resources where there might not be one, as the desire to be on top, means you must impose and monopolize advantages and hinder others success. When you are poor and have few options, you make do and just go for but when you have options, you bid your time until it's too late. Perhaps this is simply a natural limiter placed on population, like a behavioral sink for humans.
 
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supercat

Major
Reason #infinitum why China must reunify Taiwan peacefully or by force:

Here is a comparison of claimed and actual tariffs on America's exports to various countries:

It seems that African countries are smarter than their European and East Asian counterparts.
 

supercat

Major
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What's with MSM spreading Indian copium while supporting Bangladesh's attempt to decouple with India?
Well, Maitreya Bhakal is absolutely right.

As we suspected, the US stock markets slumped after the announcement of the tariffs.
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Instead of the depreciation of China's RMB/CNY, the US dollar was the one that actually crumbled.

Two illiterates of economics babble to themselves.
In fact, a 60% tariff levied on China's exports to the US probably will reduce China's GDP by only 0.8-0.9%, if, which is a big if, China can't find alternative destinations for its exports.
Based on these figures for trade exposure, if we assume that the introduction of a 60% tariff on US imports coming from China (versus a current average tariff of around 15%) would result in a one-third decline in the US’ final demand for Chinese products, then the impact on China’s GDP would be around 1%. ... Using this measure, the aggregate impact in terms of GDP would be reduced by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points (to 0.8%-0.9% of GDP).
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope you're right, but it's typically Asian cultural strengths that are the very reasons why their demographic decline is so pronounced. The reasons highlighted for Korea's demographic decline are the desire for wealth and status, the hyper-competitive nature, and the overemphasis on a work ethic and discipline. China has many of those qualities which allowed it to propel to the top, but its also double-edged.

Just like it is already too late because of years of low birth rate for Korea, even if they can change the fertility rate to 2.1 overnight, China too has had years of the One Child Policy that are not reversible. You cannot materialize millions of 20 and 30-year-olds; the demographic deficit will manifest even if the fertility rate jumps to replacement level today. Having children is not something you can simply will into existence on a large scale; otherwise, other
Ohhh Yeah they can, but the usual suspect are going to cry fault, in fact they are already complaining. I told you what will happen when the low birth rate hysteria go out of control, someone has to carry the burden of civilization, that will be the solution. If this hysteria continues countries are going from incentives to punishment like taxing the childless and single childless adults to pay for other people children, there is going to be a lot of pressure for single women and specially young women. This what these Social Science graduates demographers don't tell to people.

China is investing a lot in automation and AI to account for future population if this hysteria takes place and they have more than anticipated children that investment has to be reduced to take into account for future jobs.

Perhaps this is simply a natural limiter placed on population, like a behavioral sink for humans.
No humans are not rats.
The biggest limiters of population growth has always been calories and health, a large population and drop in calorie intake? I don't care how high your birth rate is, your populations numbers are going down and fast. A killer virus appear and becomes endemic killing hundred of thousands per year, that is a drag in population growth, especially if the disease kill mostly children. Africa was a big example, huge birth rates but the population growth was limited by famine and diseases. But with trade, modern agriculture and modern healthcare the continent has put more people in 2 decades that in the last 100 years before combine. If the heavens forbid
something cause a deficit in calorie intake those population numbers could go down pretty fast.
Another example. The video says South Korea is going to have a lot elderly population, that the elderly is going to surpass the young by a lot, the reality is that if the healthcare system get overwhelmed because lack of funding or too many patients, they are going to become a young country really fast, they are likely to see the biggest drop in life expectancy in their history.

In others words what you are seeing today is something that has never happen in history, for the first time in history most women in this planet can decide when, how, how many, where AND even with who to have children. Feminist are going to tell you that the biggest win for women was voting or entering the workforce, I would say, personally, the biggest win for women was the invention of reproductive healthcare. Basically liberating them from early and unwanted motherhood which was the main driver of high birth rates in the past.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
In fact, a 60% tariff levied on China's exports to the US probably will reduce China's GDP by only 0.8-0.9%, if, which is a big if, China can't find alternative destinations for its exports.

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People think all the products purchased by the US grow on trees? American suddenly don’t need to buy things anymore?
 
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