Miscellaneous News

TK3600 · Dec 20, 2024

Russia progress around 26km sqr a day. That is about 10000km a year. Assuming Ukraine never run out of man or weapon, Russia would control its claimed territory by next year, and possibly more.

At current pace of support, Ukraine should run crtitically low on men in late next year. We can expect actual negotiation to start late next year. Russia will control its claimed territory, with the main contention being regime change in Ukraine.

manqiangrexue · Dec 20, 2024

quim said:
It's just a forum, I'm in my free time almost going to sleep, I don't need to teach anyone or follow any model just because you want me to. Let's stop with these off topics.

The problem is failure to use the most effective debate response model is causing you to miss all the points and I suspect it's because you cannot answer them and don't want to concede so you pretend that they were not said. Point-to-point would solve this problem.

quim said:
I just need to answer what is really worth it and not every irrelevant detail.

Brushing off what you cannot answer as "irrelevent detail" is an escape; it's not a debate. It's a failure to address a point.

quim said:
for example, you wrote as if testing 1 oreshk

How many should they test for this to be an escalation? Putin even escalated further challenging NATO to pick any location in Kiev and he will strike it no matter how many air defenses they use. That is a bold escalation.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

quim said:
and capturing a tiny area of less than 2,000 square km in more than 1 year was an escalation

What is you definition of tiny? It seems that word, you can put it in front of any number if you want it to be small. I have never heard another person consider 2,000km2 as a tiny area before. Also, 2,700 can round up to 3,000, but not down to 2,000.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase."

quim said:
that would cause fear or prevent NATO from continuing to provoke Russia.

There's nothing he can do to Ukraine that would do this. NATO is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian. He would have to escalate to attacking NATO countries before that were on the table.

quim said:
These things are simply not enough escalations.

Using IRBMs in Ukraine, quadrupling missile strikes and advancing on enemy territory is not "enough" of an escalation but an assassination is? An assassination on a leadership that is keen to helping Russia kill more and more of Ukraine's combat population?

quim said:
These are just predictable actions by Putin that denote how he is afraid of the conflict escalating into an all-out war.

1. The person who is afraid of all out war is challenging his enemies to intercept his new missile while marching forward into new territory and quadrupling missile strikes?
2. No NATO nation even dares officially enter Ukraine. It's only after Russia kills them and pulls their corpses that we see somebody was sent there secretly and is now called an "independent mercenary/contractor" so as to not involve their home nation. That is countries that are not afraid to escalate into war?

quim said:
NATO dreams of making a mess so that Putin can be removed from office and that way they win, obviously.

Oh what, now it's a victory that NATO can dream too? LOL

quim said:
You don't get tired of being a dishonest debater, picking up irrelevant details to undermine the message of others. please, let's be honest so as not to derail the thread again.

If you think it's irrelevant, point out each one and say why it's irrelevant. I think they're very very relevent and I think your definition of irrelevant is a point that you cannot address without conceding.

quim said:
And I'm not trusting Elon/Trump, I just doubt Putin's willingness to win alone in Ukraine without going into a total war. For now Russia still treats it as a special military operation only.

Exactly. You think NATO can escalate? Russia has much more to escalate. It's cruising right now to more territory, more enemy kills, a better economy and a sharper military.

quim said:
Putin fears martial law, the war economy and having to attack NATO.

NATO fears martial law, the war economy (especially one where they lack the fuel for industry) and having to attack Russia. That's why they threw Ukraine under the bus and will not fight Russia even as Ukraine is getting eaten alive.

iewgnem · Dec 20, 2024

quim said:
It's just a forum, I'm in my free time almost going to sleep, I don't need to teach anyone or follow any model just because you want me to. Let's stop with these off topics.

I just need to answer what is really worth it and not every irrelevant detail.

You wrote as if testing 1 oreshk and capturing a tiny area of less than 2,000 square km in more than 1 year was an escalation that would cause fear or prevent NATO from continuing to provoke Russia. These things are simply not enough escalations. These are just predictable actions by Putin that denote how he is afraid of the conflict escalating into an all-out war.

NATO dreams of making a mess so that Putin can be removed from office and that way they win, obviously. You don't get tired of being a dishonest debater, picking up irrelevant details to undermine the message of others. please, let's be honest so as not to derail the thread again.

China is still officially neutral and would be unlikely to change that. The only support that China gives to Russia is indirect, keeping Russian trade and civil economy alive.
And I'm not trusting Elon/Trump, I just doubt Putin's willingness to win alone in Ukraine without going into a total war. For now Russia still treats it as a special military operation only. Putin fears martial law, the war economy and having to attack NATO.

Heh, is it that China is unlikely to change its "unlimited patrnership neutrality", or is it that the west is unlikely to dare to see it? I mean how many thousands of NATO armor has been destroyed by Chinese drones, fiber optic ones recently, before Europe dared to even admit it exist?

The fact that Ukraine is running out of men, and NATO countries are economicaly collapsing from the weight of supporting Ukraine, while China hasnt even escalated above "neutral", isnt a great position to hope for stalemate.

I mean, what do you think will happen to NATO, if they f* around enough for China to open lend lease?

quim · Dec 20, 2024

manqiangrexue said:
The problem is failure to use the most effective debate response model is causing you to miss all the points and I suspect it's because you cannot answer them and don't want to concede so you pretend that they were not said. Point-to-point would solve this problem.

Brushing off what you cannot answer as "irrelevent detail" is an escape; it's not a debate. It's a failure to address a point.

How many should they test for this to be an escalation? Putin even escalated further challenging NATO to pick any location in Kiev and he will strike it no matter how many air defenses they use. That is a bold escalation.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What is you definition of tiny? It seems that word, you can put it in front of any number if you want it to be small. I have never heard another person consider 2,000km2 as a tiny area before. Also, 2,700 can round up to 3,000, but not down to 2,000.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase."

There's nothing he can do to Ukraine that would do this. NATO is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian. He would have to escalate to attacking NATO countries before that were on the table.

Using IRBMs in Ukraine, quadrupling missile strikes and advancing on enemy territory is not "enough" of an escalation but an assassination is? An assassination on a leadership that is keen to helping Russia kill more and more of Ukraine's combat population?

1. The person who is afraid of all out war is challenging his enemies to intercept his new missile while marching forward into new territory and quadrupling missile strikes?
2. No NATO nation even dares officially enter Ukraine. It's only after Russia kills them and pulls their corpses that we see somebody was sent there secretly and is now called an "independent mercenary/contractor" so as to not involve their home nation. That is countries that are not afraid to escalate into war?

Oh what, now it's a victory that NATO can dream too? LOL

If you think it's irrelevant, point out each one and say why it's irrelevant. I think they're very very relevent and I think your definition of irrelevant is a point that you cannot address without conceding.

Exactly. You think NATO can escalate? Russia has much more to escalate. It's cruising right now to more territory, more enemy kills, a better economy and a sharper military.

NATO fears martial law, the war economy (especially one where they lack the fuel for industry) and having to attack Russia. That's why they threw Ukraine under the bus and will not fight Russia even as Ukraine is getting eaten alive.

You are the only person who insists on using this useless model in every forum I have ever participated in, simply to divert the topic into useless details and use ad hominem.

Every answer you give point by point is just vague, citing small things that absolutely no one relevant cares about as big responses from Russia. But they are not; testing 1 oreshnik in an empty factory did not change anything for NATO planning, simply.
After that they killed a russian general, showing thtat they were not afraid of the Oreshnik.

I already know your entire repertoire and you know my opinion, so we don't need to elaborate on this any longer.

ACuriousPLAFan · Dec 20, 2024

supercat said:
Positive news: fake! Negative news: real!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1870116036973867291

Literally this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1869809496467677483

"We've been fighting against the Chicoms since 2010! How could the data coming out of Chyna don't fit our narratives and liking! Chyna should be the source of negative news only, not positive! Those Chicoms should know their places in the world as an overpopulated, backward, collapsing sh1thole!! REEEEEEEEEEEE!!!"

manqiangrexue · Dec 20, 2024

quim said:
You are the only person who insists on using this useless format in every forum I have ever participated in

I already explained that this format is used so nobody tries to escape, which you often do. Whenever I reply to you, I address every single point. When you respond, it becomes like this post: short and without content. Point-to-point prevents this. Also, since you claim to be a STEM PhD, I thought you would be very comfortable using this format; I have never seen a STEM PhD call it useless before. It's almost as if someone had not been entirely truthful about that qualification...

quim said:
, simply to divert the topic into useless details and use ad hominem.

It's precisely to prevent you from diverting into useless details and talking about ad hominems when this is a new conversation and there are definitely none here. Everything I addressed at the beginning as a direct point on topic. Then when you responded, >80% of the content was lost. That's why we're here again.

quim said:
Every answer you give point by point is just vague citing small things

1. Vague and small are opposite of each other.
2. In the last post, there were 2 citations. 1 documenting the precise challenge that Putin laid out to the West. The other proved your number of 2,000 inaccurate and an underestimate when the real number is closer to 3,000 and that's up from less than 500 in 2023. What is vague or small?

quim said:
that absolutely no one relevant cares about

Once again, if you're gonna drag other people into this, I'm gonna have to point out that I've gotten easily over 100 upvotes since the beginning of our conversation and you've gotten about half that amount but only in laugh icons. I didn't bring up other people; you did again.

quim said:
as big responses from Russia.

IRBM with 6 MIRVs = not big
Open missile challenge = not big
Seizing 2,700km2 in a year = not big
Killing fighting age Ukraininans until women and adolescents are drafted = not big

What's big? I think the most vague thing here is your definition of big.

quim said:
But they are not; testing 1 oreshkin

Oreshnik LOL

quim said:
in an empty factory

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"It is worth noting that this plant, under the USSR, and until the mid-2010s, built intercontinental missiles"

"On November 21st, 2024, the Oreshnik was not alone in striking Dnipro. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it was accompanied by at least one Kinzhal and seven Kh-101 (air-to-surface missiles), likely indicating that the plant is still operational and continues to produce for the Ukrainian army."

quim said:
did not change anything for NATO planning, simply.

Then they should accept Putin's challenge, shouldn't they? Instead, it is all over the news that this missile is more powerful (6 MIRV capable of producing damage akin to a nuclear strike) and longer ranged (5,500km) than anything used on Ukraine before.

quim said:
I already know your entire repertoire

Maybe if you advanced past 1 exchange before pretending nothing was said to prevent conceding, you can get to see more of my points and repertoire.

quim said:
and you know my opinion, so we don't need to elaborate on this any longer.

Hoping to get past 1 exchange and we can go to new heights. Point-to-point will take us there if you are able. This, just like the Russian-Ukrainian war, is not a stalemate ending in some, "You can't change my mind and I can't change yours." I've made all the points and I've rebutted all your points; you've avoided all of them. I've gotten all the upvotes and you've gotten all the laugh icons. That's not an ad hominem; that is just a statement of fact.

quim · Dec 20, 2024

manqiangrexue said:
I already explained that this format is used so nobody tries to escape, which you often do. Whenever I reply to you, I address every single point. When you respond, it becomes like this post: short and without content. Point-to-point prevents this. Also, since you claim to be a STEM PhD, I thought you would be very comfortable using this format; I have never seen a STEM PhD call it useless before. It's almost as if someone had not been entirely truthful about that qualification...

It's precisely to prevent you from diverting into useless details and talking about ad hominems when this is a new conversation and there are definitely none here. Everything I addressed at the beginning as a direct point on topic. Then when you responded, >80% of the content was lost. That's why we're here again.

1. Vague and small are opposite of each other.
2. In the last post, there were 2 citations. 1 documenting the precise challenge that Putin laid out to the West. The other proved your number of 2,000 inaccurate and an underestimate when the real number is closer to 3,000 and that's up from less than 500 in 2023. What is vague or small?

Once again, if you're gonna drag other people into this, I'm gonna have to point out that I've gotten easily over 100 upvotes since the beginning of our conversation and you've gotten about half that amount but only in laugh icons. I didn't bring up other people; you did again.

IRBM with 6 MIRVs = not big
Open missile challenge = not big
Seizing 2,700km2 in a year = not big
Killing fighting age Ukraininans until women and adolescents are drafted = not big

What's big? I think the most vague thing here is your definition of big.

Oreshnik LOL

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"It is worth noting that this plant, under the USSR, and until the mid-2010s, built intercontinental missiles"

"On November 21st, 2024, the Oreshnik was not alone in striking Dnipro. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it was accompanied by at least one Kinzhal and seven Kh-101 (air-to-surface missiles), likely indicating that the plant is still operational and continues to produce for the Ukrainian army."

Then they should accept Putin's challenge, shouldn't they? Instead, it is all over the news that this missile is more powerful (6 MIRV capable of producing damage akin to a nuclear strike) and longer ranged (5,500km) than anything used on Ukraine before.

Maybe if you advanced past 1 exchange before pretending nothing was said to prevent conceding, you can get to see more of my points and repertoire.

Hoping to get past 1 exchange and we can go to new heights. Point-to-point will take us there if you are able.

You are the only supposed PhD I know who is obsessed with this model on forums. And I personally know and talk to several PhDs who also write on forums. Maybe you just have a disorder like Asperger's, idk...

But time will tell who is right or wrong.

So far, I have managed to predict all the movements of this war, including the economic evolution and limits of disposition on each side. It's going to be 3 years

Even on Western forums many who have disagreed with me have already admitted their mistakes and are now agreeing with me and my stalemate prediction.

Time will always tell who is more right or wrong. So far I've been right.

jiajia99 · Dec 20, 2024

quim said:
You are the only person who insists on using this useless model in every forum I have ever participated in, simply to divert the topic into useless details and use ad hominem.

Every answer you give point by point is just vague, citing small things that absolutely no one relevant cares about as big responses from Russia. But they are not; testing 1 oreshnik in an empty factory did not change anything for NATO planning, simply.
After that they killed a russian general, showing thtat they were not afraid of the Oreshnik.

I already know your entire repertoire and you know my opinion, so we don't need to elaborate on this any longer.

Can someone please stop this endless back and forth. This is going no where given how one side seems to completely believe one point whilst doing everything in their power to ignore reality while a lot of people are responding back to a literal brick wall. The simple conclusion is that Ukraine has lost territory that it will never get back and those areas are the most productive parts of Ukraine in regards to resources. You cannot squeeze water from stone, Ukraine is losing based on territory alone and hence if the war was to suddenly stop right now, Russia pound for pound has already won. Please cease this nonsense as this is going no where

manqiangrexue · Dec 20, 2024

quim said:
You are the only supposed PhD I know who is obsessed with this model on forums. And I know several PhDs personally.

Since you know them personally, ask them when they defend themselves to challenge debating editors and reviewers, what format they must use. Or better yet, if you are actually one as you claim, when you published for your dissertation, what format did you need to use to defend yourself to reviewers? Its like you think this is a bizarre request of a format no one's ever heard of... yet you claim to have a degree that would make you initimately familiar with it. I don't know how much I'd believe a person claiming to be a chef if he didn't know how to hold a knife... and then claimed it's because he's not working today.

quim said:
Maybe you just have a disorder like Asperger's...

1. That would be true then for the whole scientific community.
2. Staying on topic and locking down on points rather than drifting off is Asperger's? Do you even know what that syndrome is?
3. Uh oh... is that... an ad hominem an this new conversation of no ad hominems? LOL

quim said:
But time will tell who is right or wrong.
So far, I have managed to predict all the movements of this war, including the economic evolution and limits of disposition on each side.

Not in this debate. At the beginning of this conflict, most people thought that Russia would win militarily in short order but then have its economy crippled like North Korea. If you went against this and predicted the current position correctly from early 2022, can you show such a post?

quim said:
Even on Western forums many who have disagreed with me have already admitted their mistakes and are now agreeing with me and my stalemate prediction.

We're on this forum right now, ok? This claim is like single dude swearing to everyone he has lots of girlfriends whom are all long distance and whom nobody will ever get to meet. Pull something off here and we'll see.

quim said:
Time will always tell who is more right or wrong.

Right now shows I'm right and you're wrong. Right now, Russia owns a fifth of Ukraine and is taking more. That's no stalemate by any definition.

quim said:
So far I've been right.

None that I've seen. Can you show me?

By the way, I noticed that you've failed to rebut the entire content of the last post because you could not do point to point... As a matter of fact, this entire post of yours mentions not Russia, Ukraine, missiles, war tactics, territorial advance, nothing at all. That's why you can't do point-to-point. There's Asperger's being mentioned though LOL

quim · Dec 20, 2024

jiajia99 said:
Can someone please stop this endless back and forth. This is going no where given how one side seems to completely believe one point whilst doing everything in their power to ignore reality while a lot of people are responding back to a literal brick wall. The simple conclusion is that Ukraine has lost territory that it will never get back and those areas are the most productive parts of Ukraine in regards to resources. You cannot squeeze water from stone, Ukraine is losing based on territory alone and hence if the war was to suddenly stop right now, Russia pound for pound has already won. Please cease this nonsense as this is going no where

Putin's goal was to disarm and denazify Ukraine. He said this in interviews and television speeches. Several times.

Taking just 17% of the territory but still leaving Ukraine armed by NATO and with another 83% of territory is not a complete victory. It is a FAILURE. Simple as that.

manqiangrexue said:
Since you know them personally, ask them when they defend themselves to challenge debating editors and reviewers, what format they must use. Or better yet, if you are actually one as you claim, when you published for your dissertation, what format did you need to use to defend yourself to reviewers? Its like you think this is a bizarre request of a format no one's ever heard of.

1. That would be true then for the whole scientific community.
2. Staying on topic and locking down on points rather than drifting off is Asperger's? Do you even know what that syndrome is?
3. Uh oh... is that... an ad hominem an this new conversation of no ad hominems? LOL

Not in this debate. At the beginning of this conflict, most people thought that Russia would win militarily in short order but then have its economy crippled like North Korea. If you went against this and predicted the current position correction from early 2022, can you show such a post?

We're on this forum right now, ok? This claim is like single dude swearing to everyone he has lots of girlfriends who are all long distance and whom nobody will ever get to meet. Pull something off here and we'll see.

Right now shows I'm right and you're wrong. Right now, Russia owns a fifth of Ukraine and is taking more. That's no stalemate by any definition.

None that I've seen. Can you show me?

By the way, I noticed that you've failed to rebut the entire content of the last post because you could not do point to point... As a matter of fact, this entire post of yours mentions not Russia, Ukraine, missiles, war tactics, territorial advance, nothing at all. That's why you can't do point-to-point. There's Asperger's being mentioned though LOL

You are knowing my predictions now. Later you can also apologize to me if you know how to recognize your mistakes.

Miscellaneous News

TK3600

Colonel

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

iewgnem

Captain

quim

Junior Member

ACuriousPLAFan

Lieutenant General

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

quim

Junior Member

jiajia99

Senior Member

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

quim

Junior Member