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Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
60% increase in tariffs won't translate into anywhere close to 60% increase in the final price. There are various markups on the product already so the increase in price would be at least halved. The RMB will be allowed to weaken so the majority of the impact of the increase in prices will be negated.

China's economy will significantly shrink in nominal terms but that hurts American businesses operating in China.
Last trade war had no impact on the Chinese economy, absurd to believe this one would either, now that the gap is even wider.

China will probably preemptively pressure the oligarchs. And end Ukraine since Trump is seemingly weak on that, putting Russia more in control of the western front and applying heavy pressure to EU + Israel.

Trump is not necessarily more hostile to China than the DNC. If anything, Trump is consistently seen as less revanchist. American revanchism is by far the no1 threat to the US-China relation, not trade issues.

To be frank if US was not a political (through stealing the governments of other nations and forming anti China coalitions), military (through outsized military letting them build an army even larger than China's) and territorially revanchist (by building up their own Crimea/Donbass type invasion against China) threat, US would just be another India or Indonesia. Big economy and population, but too far behind, too uninnovative and too slow growing to bother China. Those countries are entitled to their own protectionism if they want. It only hurts them more in the end anyways.

So if Trump puts US in isolationism and ends revanchism, I think China can give a lot of leeway to how he handles domestic economic policy.
 

GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
..
Western media "suddenly got concerns" on fast fashion?

"22% of parcels delivered in France by La Poste come from Temu and Shein
Rising concerns over fast fashion’s environmental and health impacts.[....]
Although these online stores provide some with a vast selection of clothing and more at their fingertips, it’s essential to remember what these platforms truly represent. While these fast-fashion giants and their products become more prevalent in French homes, the dangers they pose and their detrimental impact on various levels are equally increasing."

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iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
Last trade war had no impact on the Chinese economy, absurd to believe this one would either, now that the gap is even wider.

China will probably preemptively pressure the oligarchs. And end Ukraine since Trump is seemingly weak on that, putting Russia more in control of the western front and applying heavy pressure to EU + Israel.

Trump is not necessarily more hostile to China than the DNC. If anything, Trump is consistently seen as less revanchist. American revanchism is by far the no1 threat to the US-China relation, not trade issues.

To be frank if US was not a political (through stealing the governments of other nations and forming anti China coalitions), military (through outsized military letting them build an army even larger than China's) and territorially revanchist (by building up their own Crimea/Donbass type invasion against China) threat, US would just be another India or Indonesia. Big economy and population, but too far behind, too uninnovative and too slow growing to bother China. Those countries are entitled to their own protectionism if they want. It only hurts them more in the end anyways.

So if Trump puts US in isolationism and ends revanchism, I think China can give a lot of leeway to how he handles domestic economic policy.
Elon is in China's pocket and both him and Vance knows how screwed US willbe with 60% tariffs, could still happe but unfortunately not that likely.

Anyone who think the country in control over half of human industry will devalue its currency to compete in a bankrupt market is delussional. Xi just said at BRICS summit that replacing USD is "urgent", Xi doesnt say things like that lightly
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member

The biggest winner tonight. Never doubt AIPAC.
And the Israeli people will be one of the largest losers. Their Zelensky just got his terms indefinitely extended and the meat grinder will continue for them with no chance of peace or return to even semi democratic civilian rule.

Given US track record in combat, especially in proxy wars, who is fooling themselves that anyone can save Israel militarily?

BTW Ukrainian people probably a big W with this one. They will finally be allowed to surrender and stop being demographically cleansed by Russia.
 
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