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henrik

Captain
Registered Member
chgough34 said:
~2/3rds of the “debt held by the public” is owned by US investors but it’s even higher when you consider the “intergovernmental transfers” part of the debt where it’s owned by agencies like social security and medicare

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That is why the average yankees will go bankrupt as the US economy goes bankrupt.
 
4Runner

4Runner

Senior Member
Registered Member

My observation is that Apple's golden years in China are coming to an end, even though it is going to be slow motion. Apple drew about USD 55 billions from China in 2023. That is significant however you cut it. From this replacement cycle in 2024, Apple is going to face unprecedented competition in every segment of its China sales.
 
C

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
proelite said:
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The forecast was lifted from the CBO for the U.S. and in China, was based on the tax cuts and large fiscal expansions (pensions, education, etc) that China has forthcoming as well as China’s slowing growth.
 
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tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
chgough34 said:
China’s fiscal trajectory is far more unsustainable than the U.S.’ fiscal trajectory

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794271961180414389

the interest payments especially are a soon to be moot point since rate cuts are coming and the main drivers of debt - social security and Medicare, are of limited macroeconomic importance (it will just require a headline grabbing event to make Congress move)
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The graph is comparing US public debt with China suppose total debt. US total debt is closer to 400%.
 
proelite

proelite

Senior Member
chgough34 said:
The forecast was lifted from the CBO for the U.S. and in China, was based on the tax cuts and large fiscal expansions (pensions, education, etc) that China has forthcoming as well as China’s slowing growth.
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As a principal, I dismiss any chart that goes to 2053.

tokenanalyst said:
The graph is comparing US public debt with China suppose total debt. US total debt is closer to 400%.
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Pretty sure it's comparing public debt with China's government (central + local) debts.
 
proelite

proelite

Senior Member
tokenanalyst said:
China national debt is 86%? Household debt is 60%? Private debt is the rest? add all that and you get the total debt.
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What about local government debts? It's hard to know what they counted as public debt for China.

I think the last time I checked everything added together was 300%.

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If growth slows further, LGFVs won’t be the only ones seeking support. Corporate debt adds another 123 per cent of GDP worth of liabilities, a large chunk of which is owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [2]. In addition, household debt - mostly mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. Altogether, China’s gross national debt is over 300 percent of GDP. A high debt burden constrains the government’s fiscal firepower, preventing it from unleashing bolder stimulus and weakening its effectiveness when implementing support measures.
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