You know that China was in in and out of lockdowns until December 2022? "post-Covid" is 2023 and on
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Being in and out of lockdowns was a policy choice for China; it wasn't out of necessity.You know that China was in in and out of lockdowns until December 2022? "post-Covid" is 2023 and on
Regardless, even the post-COVID 2023 has substantially slower than the 2018-2019 levels even after the lockdowns are lifting, suggesting long-run permanent scarring to the economy (if there wasn't permanent scarring, there should've been massive increases in growth once the lockdowns were lifted; those weren't there)
No necessary, I think the biggest deal is to navigate the post-inflationary, recessionary, high interest rate world that we are living now, which is probably more dangerous than pandemic.Being in and out of lockdowns was a policy choice for China; it wasn't out of necessity.
Regardless, even the post-COVID 2023 has substantially slower than the 2018-2019 levels even after the lockdowns are lifting, suggesting long-run permanent scarring to the economy
But even with the COVID pandemic lockdowns they manage to archive almost 6% on average in GDP, which still pretty impressive to be honest.
There was a massive increase in growth as lockdown where lifted almost 20%, but that is just a blip in the data.(if there wasn't permanent scarring, there should've been massive increases in growth once the lockdowns were lifted; those weren't there)
China's 1H23 growth rate over 1H22 was 5.5%, which is below the rate in 2018 and 2019There was a massive increase in growth as lockdown where lifted almost 20%, but that is just a blip in the data.
To be fair 2022 H1 was the recovery from a massive lockdown, so the data would be skew, but is not far away from the 6% of 18 -19China's 1H23 growth rate over 1H22 was 5.5%, which is below the rate in 2018 and 2019
That's the entire point. If even during a recovery from a massive lockdown (where you'd expect growth to be unsustainably high for a few quarters), you have a growth rate that's lower than normal pre-COVID times, then what that shows is that COVID massively scarred the economy and sent it on a permanently lower growth trajectoryTo be fair 2022 H1 was the recovery from a massive lockdown, so the data would be skew, but is not far away from the 6% of 18 -19
That would be in a normal no recessionary world, with normal or low inflation, normal interest rates and with most countries not in the breaking economic point. The archive in 2023 very high growth closer to the pre-pandemic levels given the bad economic environment that the world is in.That's the entire point. If even during a recovery from a massive lockdown (where you'd expect growth to be unsustainably high for a few quarters), you have a growth rate that's lower than normal pre-COVID times, then what that shows is that COVID massively scarred the economy and sent it on a permanently lower growth trajectory
The point was that if you assumed pre-COVID trends in the US and China and looked at where US GDP and China's GDP were today, the US GDP grew along its pre-COVID trend to 2023 even with higher inflation & interest rates but China's GDP is 7% lower than its pre-COVID trend with lower inflation and lower real interest rates and lower growth rates compared to the pre-COVID trendline even after the lockdowns. This points to the suggestion that COVID induced permanent scarring (hysteresis) in China's economy but not the United States. The world is not in a recession. Too much demand leading to higher rates and inflation is the opposite of a recessionThat would be in a normal no recessionary world, with normal or low inflation, normal interest rates and with most countries not in the breaking economic point. The archive in 2023 very high growth closer to the pre-pandemic levels given the bad economic environment that the world is in.