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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minm said:
Whether they have some dying industries or not doesn't matter. The official ranking by nominal GDP is widely regarded as a ranking of national power. It will be a shock to the national psyche of Japan to drop out of the top three. They will start to finally recognise their decline. Abe said Japan will never be a tier two nation, once they're number 4 they will officially be tier two. Prepare yourself for the headlines once 2023 GDP numbers are out. 2023 H1 should show it already
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Not all countries remain great. Spain was a superpower in the 1400s-1800s at the late medieval ages and early modern ages, almost as strong as Ming and Qing China. 400 years is a long time. 500 million people speak Spanish for a reason.

Yet the Spanish Empire, like the Chinese Empire, failed to industrialize. They used swords and muskets against stone age Aztecs, yet by the 19th century the UK and US used automatic cannons and rifles against their swords and muskets. They were warned about the power of industrialization by China's example yet they still slept. By 1900 it was too late and the Spanish Empire was broken up.

Whose to say that Japan isn't a one time wonder like Spain with a brief burst of brilliance in the 19th and 20th centuries then fades to irrelevance? Not everyone can survive and adapt like China.
 
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fatzergling

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Not all countries remain great. Spain was a superpower in the 1400s-1800s at the late medieval ages and early modern ages, almost as strong as Ming and Qing China. 400 years is a long time. 500 million people speak Spanish for a reason.

Yet the Spanish Empire, like the Chinese Empire, failed to industrialize. They used swords and muskets against stone age Aztecs, yet by the 19th century the UK and US used automatic cannons and rifles against their swords and muskets. They were warned about the power of industrialization by China's example yet they still slept. By 1900 it was too late and the Spanish Empire was broken up.

Whose to say that Japan isn't a one time wonder like Spain with a brief burst of brilliance in the 19th and 20th centuries then fades to irrelevance? Not everyone can survive and adapt like China.
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Japan's peak of power was in the 1940's before it was bashed into submission by the Allies. Even though Japan's economy grew rapidly from the 50's to the 80's, militarily and diplomatically it was shackled to the US by virtue of 50k US troops on Japan's soil. As long as these troops remained on Japanese soil, Japan could not become a power militarily or diplomatically.

Furthermore, in history Japan only became a great power in the 19th and 20th centuries. Apart from a failed invasion of Korea during the 16th century, Japan otherwise tended to be an isolationist, inward looking country. It should come as no surprise then that the current Japan is converging back to this state in the next 30 years.

In contrast, China has been the top dog of Asia for a very, very long time. It's weakness during the 19th and 20th century is an anomaly, not the norm. We shouldn't be surprised that China is converging back to it's status before the industrial revolution: top dog of Asia.
 
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pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
Same as Japan too has a very advanced CNC machines ... I don't think Japan's CNC machine is inferior to German
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It is not just CNC machines. I have one criteria for greatness of nation how Arabs look at the country. and in that classification Japan is far above Germany. certain things you cannot measure but get the vibe . Even Korea will be above Germany. Last year Korean President spent 4 days in UAE. it is that extra time they want to spend with the guest. off course there could be uninvited guests they spend extra time but that easy to figure out in there local media.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Minm said:
Whether they have some dying industries or not doesn't matter. The official ranking by nominal GDP is widely regarded as a ranking of national power. It will be a shock to the national psyche of Japan to drop out of the top three. They will start to finally recognise their decline. Abe said Japan will never be a tier two nation, once they're number 4 they will officially be tier two. Prepare yourself for the headlines once 2023 GDP numbers are out. 2023 H1 should show it already
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A "ranking" that doesn't take into account inflation is like ranking the world's fattest people without accounting for height lol

Without firstly adjusting you cannot measure anything, let alone national power. You're measuring alternate realities where for example Japanese and Chinese pay 200 000 $ tuition. It's laughable and pointless metrics, anyone not adjusting for gdp is an economic version of a quack.

Japan is tier 2 as they come. Even India is better than Japan in many ways due to sheer size but no other redeeming traits otherwise. It was always true.

But Germany is even worse than that.
henrik said:
Germany still has CNC machines, while Japan's semiconductor equipment industry will be displaced by China soon.
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Japan also has CNC machines. Neither country comes close to China when it comes to precision manufacturing either. At least Japan can boast about having near parity in semiconductor knowhow to China, and that knowhow won't disappear even if they lose all the market share.

Which puts them ahead of Germany in how dangerous they can be.
 
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