China Has Wiped Out US Military Advantage in Western Pacific: Commission
A bipartisan commission has issued Washington a stark warning: China poses the most serious threat to U.S. military supremacy since the Cold War and has particularly narrowed the gap in the Western Pacific.
"In many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment," the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy wrote in its 2024 report to Congress, released Monday.
America Outpaced
China now boasts the world's largest navy, with over 370 surface ships and submarines, largely concentrated in the Western Pacific, compared with the U.S.'s less than 300 spread across the world. China is also rapidly expanding and modernizing its air force and nuclear arsenal.
China's cyber and space capabilities are "peer or near-peer" level. The country would likely leverage this to disrupt critical infrastructure to hamper the U.S.'s ability to enter a conflict, such as one over Beijing-claimed Taiwan.
The commission reiterated the 2022 report's position that China is "the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order, and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective."
That report called China the U.S.'s "pacing challenge," which remains true, but Washington is now lagging behind its rival in "defense production and growth in force size and, increasingly, in force capability," the commission said.
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A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the U.S., Liu Pengyu, told Newsweek thatChina is committed to peaceful national development and a defense-oriented foreign policy.
"China's defense spending is transparent and moderate," he said, adding that its military expenditures are relatively low compared with Washington's.
"We hope the U.S. can respect the facts and do more things that are conducive to the healthy development of China-U.S. relations and the peace and stability of the region and the world," he added.
China in March announced a draft defense budget of $231.4 billion, an increase of 7.2 percent over 2023. The independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute believes the true budget is over three times the official figure.
Policy Recommendations
Among the commission's policy recommendations is for the Pentagon to "immediately review all major systems against likely future needs, emphasizing battlefield utility and prioritizing agility, interoperability, and survivability."
Another recommendation is to invest more heavily in cyber, software and space capabilities and raise its defense budget at a minimum annual rate of 3 percent to 5 percent above inflation. Also, the Joint Staff and the defense secretary should be given more authority to set and invest in future defense priorities and cancel programs as they see fit.
Meanwhile, Congress should vote for "supplemental appropriation" for "multiyear investment in the national security innovation and industrial base."
This should include funds earmarked for shipbuilding infrastructure, a capacity to "surge munitions production" when necessary, building out and hardening military installations in Asia, "supporting allies at war," and ensuring continued U.S. access to critical minerals like rare earths, which China currently has a stranglehold on.
Washington should "engage globally with a presence"—in the diplomatic, economic and military realms—including with countries in the Global South, where Beijing and Moscow are making inroads, the report said.
The U.S. should work with its allies to not only deter Chinese aggression in the Western Pacific but also "fight and win if needed," it added.
'Not Prepared'
"The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war," the report says. It adds that Beijing presents the most significant challenge but not the only one.
There is also Russia, whose ties with China "have only deepened and broadened" since the two declared a "no-limits" partnership after Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Both countries are "fusing military, diplomatic, and industrial strength to expand power worldwide and coerce its neighbors," the commission said, calling on the U.S. to likewise integrate its capabilities to keep up.
North Korea and Iran, both countries where China has significant influence, also threaten U.S. interests, according to the report. "This new alignment of nations opposed to U.S. interests creates a real risk, if not likelihood, that conflict anywhere could become a multitheater or global war."
That is something the U.S. has not faced since World War II, some 80 years ago, and has not been prepared for since the end of the Cold War, the report says. "It is not prepared today."
"We are pleased to see the range of areas in which the Commission's findings support the results of the 2022 NDS—perhaps most notably the [Defense] Department's focus on the People's Republic of China as our pacing challenge," Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Garron Garn told Newsweek.
Garn said the 2022 report had "served as the basis for the Department's last three budgets—as an expression of our priorities and our commitment to making strategy-aligned investments to advance joint force modernization."
He added that the department has "made significant progress.
"We, nevertheless, agree with the Commission's position that there is still much to do to fully achieve our strategic objectives."
