Do you expect Lai to unilaterally declare independence by mid 2024 and subsequently mount history's worst defense?
Half of his armed forces flee to the Bay Area and elsewhere in California.
Naval forces, aerial forces, anti-ship and anti-air defenses are wiped out by numerical superiority of rocket and air forces.
Defense is left to roughly 2000 hardcore airsoft LARPers who are subsequently wiped out by drones they never even saw
PLA subsequently waltzes in, arrests the sub deputy minister of public recreation, the highest remaining government official on the island and therefore de facto head of government
All happens so fast, in the span of 2 or so weeks that the US has no response and just pretends that Taiwan was always part of China