I do not believe that there will be another new cold war.
No.
This rant was complicated I thought.
The other point about a new cold war, is what are they going to fight or contest over?
I really don't know.
For sure, I do know. It is the usual business stuff we read every day, about emerging industries, especially in tech and green technologies. And it is the geopolitical stuff such as developing good relations between states.
As China is concerned, economy is going well, the technology advancement is going well, BRI, blah blah blah. A new cold war will not change much of that. The only thing it could do is restrict the trade in certain goods, but like that is nothing new.
It would seem from China's prescriptive, a new cold war would be like a cheap snack, and not some epic wedding banquet. What's the point then? I don't know.
Also, it is the relations between states. When it comes to Russia, the Germans look after US interests. When it comes to China, the Germans look after German interests.
Germany interests with China are mainly commercial. Very similar to the relations between the United States and China, a very deep and board commercial relationship. Well, you know, this looking like another point we cannot make anything of.
The main point is, what if the premise to a new cold war, that the foundation of that are extremely weak?
The question of, what are they going to fight over - there is not that much they are going to fight over. If there is no fight, there is no new cold war. The logic is that simple.
Commerce? They still want more of the China market.
Ideology? Who cares, China does not care about your ideology.
Taiwan? The entire wold does not revolve around KMT & DPP.
Mackinder? The world island includes Europe and China, good match.
So, to make a long story short, from the previous rant, the object of a new cold world is primarily for the Americans to maintain hegemony over their suckas/allies. China is the convenient boogeyman to scare the nitwits.
For a new cold war to really gain momentum, you need mass, you need many people going wholeheartedly at it. That does not exist today. Although the usual voices are all calling for it.
It would appear that China believes that if the foundations for a new cold war are weak, then those foundations will erode over time.
For example, the more friends China has in ASEAN, West Asia, South America, Africa, and Europe, the chances of a new cold war are very very low. Too low to really make any concrete or large scale preparations.