plawolf
Lieutenant General
Prigozhin’s plane crash seemed to have slipped under the radar somewhat here. Consensus seems to be to blame Putin, but that just doesn’t make sense, and would indeed be pretty stupid of Putin if he put personal petty vendettas above national interests.
If Putin wanted to show how boss he was, he should have killed Prigozhin and all loyal to him during the coup. It would be a massive own goal to strike a deal and then go back on your word to seek revenge later. Who else will dare to make deals with you in the future if you do that?
Prigozhin’s political career is done, and Wagner has handed over all their heavy weapons and much of their troops have go over to the Russian MoD, what are left have been banished to Belarus. They are, frankly speaking, no threat anymore. Not to Putin at least. But what is Wagner very public thinking of doing just before this? Moving into Africa. And who is currently planning their own SMO in Africa?
The most basic process of investing a crime is to look at motive. Putin doesn’t really have a good motive, but certain western hostile powers have a massive incentive to clip Wagner’s wings and redirect their attention from their previous course?
As for opportunity, well, one can easily see that post coup, not only would Prigozhin no longer enjoy the same kind of Russian secret service protection as he would have before, he may even see such protection as suspect and actively avoid it. That would present an unusually easy opportunity for external intelligence agencies to tamper with his plane should they wish to do so.
As such, don’t be surprised if the Russian crash investigation reveals sabotage, and Prigozhin gets a hero of Russia treatment for being ‘assassinated by NATO’.
