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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
It is all relative. Credit Sussy and SVB made Evergrande look like the bastion of economic stability. At least with Evergrande they have actual physical assets they could liquidate.
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Well, that’s what I said about Adani too.
If I see an article about the safety of their stocks, I’ll know it’s time to hide in the basement.

Unfortunately 81式 Folding Stock was sold out in Canada. Only unwieldy LMG style left
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lethe said:
The Labor government allowed the stratospheric AUKUS cost figure to enter the public discourse because it is setting the stage for political fights to come with the Liberal party. In crude terms, Labor is going to argue for increased taxation to fund AUKUS, in particular scrapping the recent "Stage 3" tax cuts that are estimated to reduce government revenue by AUD $120bn over the next decade. Labor is going to use the cost of AUKUS as a talisman of its commitment to Australia's national security (neutralising a typical line of attack from right-wing parties) and as a club to advance its basic ideology. Labor will probably put reversing the Stage 3 tax cuts on the table at the next election and dare the Liberals to publicly argue for (a) less national security, (b) more "irresponsible" deficit spending or (c) cuts to popular categories of spending such as health, education, etc. instead.

More broadly, folks consistently underestimate the role of domestic politics in shaping statements and policies on foreign matters. Most relevantly, American attitudes, statements and policies towards China have very little to do with China and everything to do with domestic politics in America. There is some relationship between the outside world and the domestic discourse, but it is greatly attenuated if not outright distorted by the "Rube Goldberg" black box that is the domestic political apparatus.

The more powerful a country is, the more the domestic discourse predominates over the external reality. For a small, weak nation, the costs of a large divergence between internal discourse and external reality can be immediate and severe. For America, decades of policy failure towards Cuba, Iran, North Korea etc. has no discernible effect on the discourse because America's power shields it from the consequences of failure. Political discourse in America regarding Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Ukraine, Israel, etc. cannot be understood by reference to those countries, rather they are simply symbols tossed around by players in what is overwhelmingly a circular-internal debate about what it means to be America.

This is one of the reasons why I disagree with the optimists who argue that catastrophic conflicts are unlikely because nobody wants such a conflict and will therefore not act in such a way as to precipitate it. This ignores the aforementioned tendency for the statements, policies, actions of powerful nations to be only distantly related to the external reality as experienced by the other.
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Thus only way for them to see reality is when the costs are imposed on them, whether via one of the many manifestations of economic collapse (pick between 20% interest rates, 20% inflation or 20% unemployment), a humiliating foreign policy defeat, a massive and undeniable tech gap, etc.
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Might be the final ‘ace’ the Americans have left to play.

The Americans are desperate to get the Europeans ‘on side’ in their coming war against China. The problem is not all (or even a large minority) of Europe’s elites are stupidly suicidal enough to do that.

The whole Ukraine gambit seems to be aimed at doing just that - to make the EU so fearful for their own physical security that they cling to America harder, and effectively be forced to also take America’s side and declare China as their enemy.
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Europeans will be on US side not just things related to China. and even if It is related to China it is in Europeans own self interest to be on opposite camp of China.
plawolf said:
I think America might have miscalculated on multiple fronts. Firstly, I think they overestimated Russia’s conventional military power and underestimated its economic power. Russia was supposed to smash Ukraine on the battlefield get obliterated economically.
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If Russia really want to smash Ukraine they would not allowed to Israeli PM to negotiate. Energy transit through Ukraine is still flowing and Russia may not want to distrub Ukraine deep gas storage tanks or even railways that is open to Kiev.
plawolf said:
Building up Ukraine’s conventional military power was meant to just bleed Russia enough that they cannot keep rolling forwards into Poland, not fight the Russians to a standstill in the middle of Ukraine.
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Ukraine never had conventional power. it need effective COIN strategy due low per capita income and high number of diaspora that attracted to it.
plawolf said:
America was prepared to fund and supply an insurgency movement in Ukraine fighting the occupying Russian military like Afghanistan 2.0 to tie down and attrition Russian military using IEDs and man portable missiles like MANPADs and ATGMs that are quick to restock and which will have limited to no use against China in the Pacific theatre. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it also reduces the likelihood of Russia actively aiding China in the pacific, while also draining China financially to prop up the crippled Russian economy or face the prospect of Putin getting colour revolutioned by a CIA hand puppet and Russia being flipped to America’s side.
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Russia is not using things like upgraded Tu-160M. and only few of AWACS even flying. it is still very low tempo approach as far airpower is concerned. Russia has created most advanced AWACS and they know what they have gained in Mideast operations.
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plawolf said:
The EU is supposed to be so terrified of the rampaging Russian bear that they sign up to enhance security agreements with the US that would just so happen to obligate them to declare war on China should the US and China ever comes to blows for whatever reason.

With Russia depleted and tied down in Ukraine, America would then be able to start its war with China and basically drag the EU in along with them as the 8 nation alliance 2.0. Destroy and carve up China again, and then come back to finish off the Russians at their leisure.
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when large scale Paris attacks happened in 2015. French President toured his Western allies first for enhanced response ending up in Moscow at end. by that time Russians had good idea of Western solidarity with French. There other things like with French in Libya and Syria that formed Russian opinion about Europe and this top tier of EU military.
plawolf said:
Instead the Americans are now trapped pouring big ticket items that are far harder and more time consuming to place into Ukraine, many of which they will need for their pacific theatre against China, which seems like a slippery slope with no end in sight. So if the Ukraine war keeps going at its current trajectory, there is a real chance it’s the American military that is going to have its combat power attritioned away as it runs down its stocks of key weapons systems and munitions. This is why you now have the weird situation where some of the biggest warmongers in the US are starting to get ever more vocal about ending US military support for Ukraine.

But because of how underwhelming the Russian military have performed, no one in the EU is seriously worried about Russia looking to roll into Poland after Ukraine to conquer all of Europe, so zero appetite to sign a security blank cheque for the Americans.

So now the Americans seems to be looking to go a different route to force European compliance by getting a NATO useful idiot like Poland into a direct shooting war with Russia. The EU would be forced declare article 5 to get America to step in or risk getting steamrolled by Russia. Then America will start its pacific campaign against China and reverse Uno the EU with Article 5 against China.
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have you thought Russia may have own reason to bring China in conflict with EU. and EU has its own reason of coming to Indo-Pacific. No need for US to do anything. when China trade with Australia, India or rest of Asia. it enhance market for EU firms. infact Chinese trade enables countries like Australia, Vietnam and the rest to arm themselves. Countries like Australia, South Korea, Japan have real Airforce and Navies. This is not situation in Europa. Germany does not have any real military. infact stronger Germany means all those WEF, Bilderbergs, COP abstract concepts are imposed on Europeans that make Europe weaken further. Ukraine war has made it even better Germany has now migration pact with India and energy deals with Azerbaijan that is integrated into Russian energy system. Ukraine energy transit can be resurrected any time. LNG Plants in north are on schedule. and Germany will be able to received it. infact this Nord stream can be resurrected. countries like Poland will have to deal with expensive gas from Norway or US while Germany can afford expensive inputs due to its superior engineering.
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T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
China insisted that only Chinese, Arabic and Persian were used during the Saudi-Iran negotiations in Beijing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1636263278492938240
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I think the "China ditching English in the meeting" is a sentimental play by both anti and pro China camps, it has no base in essense.

Any deal/agreement/treaty is documented in languages of the related parties and all these languages have equal legal footing, no other language has any legal role. English has no place in this meeting and its outcome to begin with.

Treaties are usually registered in UN office. This agreement is probably treated as a treaty therefor to be registered in UN. Mandarin Chinese and Arabic are two official languages equal to English, French and Russian. The document ONLY need to be presented to UN in Chinese and Arabic to be legally valid. English translation has no more legal status than any other minor language.

In all aspect, English has no role in this deal. China isn't insisting anything, nor SA, nor Iran, they are just following the well established rule. Some people are crying for something they never deserved, others are excited for something China always have.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Chevalier said:
As angry as I have been about the unjust, racist nature of anglo societies towards Chinese and asians in general, I do hold onto hope with the growing awareness amongst millennials and zoomers of the absolutely shitfuckery their government is doing, and surprise, surprise, unlike fearful boomers on Facebook, they don’t care about china having American data because Facebook steals it anyhow:
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explains why zoomers with their athletic youthful bodies are less likely to join the military, because what is there to fight for when their boomer and gen X parents have mortgaged their future and left them with nothing?
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Plebs are beginning to swallow SeeSeePee propaganda wholesale because of the threat of Tiktok ban! #BidenDelivers.

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