I do wonder what are the chances of it. Seymour Hersh is talking about a plan B direct NATO offensive against Russia in Ukraine. Doesn’t appear that it is his opinion but rather his sources seem to be suggesting it. Tho I doubt it since they really want to go after China but maybe the neocons will go off their rockers.
Might be the final ‘ace’ the Americans have left to play.
The Americans are desperate to get the Europeans ‘on side’ in their coming war against China. The problem is not all (or even a large minority) of Europe’s elites are stupidly suicidal enough to do that.
The whole Ukraine gambit seems to be aimed at doing just that - to make the EU so fearful for their own physical security that they cling to America harder, and effectively be forced to also take America’s side and declare China as their enemy.
I think America might have miscalculated on multiple fronts. Firstly, I think they overestimated Russia’s conventional military power and underestimated its economic power. Russia was supposed to smash Ukraine on the battlefield get obliterated economically.
Building up Ukraine’s conventional military power was meant to just bleed Russia enough that they cannot keep rolling forwards into Poland, not fight the Russians to a standstill in the middle of Ukraine.
America was prepared to fund and supply an insurgency movement in Ukraine fighting the occupying Russian military like Afghanistan 2.0 to tie down and attrition Russian military using IEDs and man portable missiles like MANPADs and ATGMs that are quick to restock and which will have limited to no use against China in the Pacific theatre. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it also reduces the likelihood of Russia actively aiding China in the pacific, while also draining China financially to prop up the crippled Russian economy or face the prospect of Putin getting colour revolutioned by a CIA hand puppet and Russia being flipped to America’s side.
The EU is supposed to be so terrified of the rampaging Russian bear that they sign up to enhance security agreements with the US that would just so happen to obligate them to declare war on China should the US and China ever comes to blows for whatever reason.
With Russia depleted and tied down in Ukraine, America would then be able to start its war with China and basically drag the EU in along with them as the 8 nation alliance 2.0. Destroy and carve up China again, and then come back to finish off the Russians at their leisure.
Instead the Americans are now trapped pouring big ticket items that are far harder and more time consuming to place into Ukraine, many of which they will need for their pacific theatre against China, which seems like a slippery slope with no end in sight. So if the Ukraine war keeps going at its current trajectory, there is a real chance it’s the American military that is going to have its combat power attritioned away as it runs down its stocks of key weapons systems and munitions. This is why you now have the weird situation where some of the biggest warmongers in the US are starting to get ever more vocal about ending US military support for Ukraine.
But because of how underwhelming the Russian military have performed, no one in the EU is seriously worried about Russia looking to roll into Poland after Ukraine to conquer all of Europe, so zero appetite to sign a security blank cheque for the Americans.
So now the Americans seems to be looking to go a different route to force European compliance by getting a NATO useful idiot like Poland into a direct shooting war with Russia. The EU would be forced declare article 5 to get America to step in or risk getting steamrolled by Russia. Then America will start its pacific campaign against China and reverse Uno the EU with Article 5 against China.