I agree with all your points except the part about China with little war experience. Unless you're only referring to the current PRC the I guess technically you're correct.
Everyone has "little" war experience. Except Russia and Ukraine maybe, but even they're just getting a glimpse of what things look like.
Its like in the lead up to WW1. Then, the Boer war was fought but because both sides were fairly crappy, they did dig trenches but could not properly defend them most of the time.
Ukraine and Russia are benefitting from mass drone usage, satellite intel, in Russia's case, they're also able to throw up a very pale imitation of the missile regimen a true world class 2020s era military could throw out.
But we don't know what happens when the floodgates are really opened, when you have the biggest drone manufacturers in the world printing out suicide drones and spotters, when you have US taking full advantage of GPS while China is using Beidou that is even more accurate in Eurasia, when both sides actually can manufacture lots of missiles, and when not just 2 or 3 hypersonic missiles are fired but 100s or 1000s.
Training, simulation, is really the only way modern world class militaries can get experience for real conflict.