some of you might be sick and tired of these updates of mine on price capping, but the situation is ever-changing, and I think it's interesting to see this weird chess match live
apparently next week the EU commission will officially propose putting an 80-90€ price cap only on russian methane from Jamal, Soyuz and Fratellanza pipelines.
the official motive is that as soon as the price of gas futures went down to 80€ in the early weeks of june, russia announced that it was having technical issues pumping the gas, making the price jump up to the current levels (125€). EU authorities believe that russia is manipulating the price by withholding the gas
the proposal hinges on the assumption by EU authorities that russia doesn't want to stop selling the gas, especially since it cannot be easily diverted to asian pipelines
my understanding is that they will try to force russia to sell at those prices since russia either sells the gas destined to europe or it doesn't.
from the commission pov russia would be better off selling at the dictated price than not sell it altogether
The EU are being retarded idiots. How about giving Russia back the gas turbines they sent to Siemens for repair? Do they think the gas moves through the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic by the power of Putin's will? Great German Siemens company which can't even repair turbines in Europe and had to send them to Canada to fix. Teutonic engineering in action. Is it too much of a shame to have to beg Canada to break the sanctions the West themselves imposed on Russia? You know the sanctions on all oil & gas equipment and support.
And you know what. Russia used to have fixed price contracts with the EU. It was fixed price contract indexed to oil typically around €80. This is standard industry practice and Qatar for example does this. It is the EU which demanded these variable rate contracts determined by a market located in the Netherlands. The EU wanted to buy gas for cheap in the off peak season, store it, and not buy gas in the winter. They wanted to buy gas for €40. Because the US was dumping LNG off peak at €40 so of course Russia had to sell at €40. But you know what, that is not how gas wells operate. You need to have continuous draw or you risk causing induced seismicity i.e.
earthquakes and possible collapse of the gas well. But tell that to EU beancounters with their precious MBAs.
You know what? Russia has the largest gas storage capacity in the whole of Europe. And given it is this time of the year the storage is likely pretty empty since winter peak period is over. Russia has storage for 72.6 bcm of gas. It sells 150 bcm to Europe a year. So you do the math on how many months Russia can continue with this game of chicken by diverting gas to storage instead of sending it to Europe. And you know what? Gas isn't oil. If Russia wants to keep pressure in the wells, they can just flare the gas for all they care. And if you think they will blink at doing this. You would be wrong. Gas exports is 1/4th of oil exports.
Europe better act like responsible people. When I can't pay my gas bill, I don't go to my utility and tell them the price is too high, so I will only pay this amount that I want to pay and get away with it. The gas gets cut. Effin dolts.
They should have paid €80 fixed price. They wanted to pay €40 variable price. They paid €40 allright. Now variable rate is €125. They complain. You can't have it both ways. F the EU. Next time don't get advice on energy pricing from UK and Netherlands stock exchange.