@bro long time no post, how are you, Can you update us the current situation in the US. I heard inflation is off the roof with it a major disaster for democrats in the midterm. My question will Brandon be impeach? IF he does a major mistake for the Republican as Kamala will ascend and make more mess of things. Will the Neocons like Jake Sullivan involve the US in a war with China to cover up his role and that of her master Hillary in Russian Gate scandal?
I'll be honest, you're probably as informed about things as I am seeing how you follow the same online experts as I do.
Inflation is bad here and likely and it is likely to continue unabated until interest rates provide positive yields with inflation rates. Since inflation is the excessive supply of money in the system, you need to incentive people to take their money out of the system and into banks with high enough interest rates and which is why Paul Volker needed to raise interest rates to 20% in the 1980s.
While inflation is the main problem that the US faces, deflation is also a serious risk too because as inflation eats away at household incomes, domestic consumption (which makes up most of the US economy) begins to be permanently handicapped by less purchasing power which makes it difficult to restart the economy once it crashes. Just as wealth can be created, so too can it be destroyed and if Americans are too poor to spend, it becomes hard to invest in new business ideas or government projects to restart the economy.
Keynesian economics worked during the Great Depression because it was a deflationary economic crisis, where the depreciating value of products made it difficult to encourage growth due to the lack of incentive for people to invest and spend. The decreased production causes businesses to lose income from lack of sales which causes them to fire people and unemployment lowers the consumption needed to encourage more production (i.e. Deflationary Death Spiral). That is why massive spending was necessary to jump-start the economy but even Keynes cautioned on economic stimulus on in times of economic crisis and stressed the need to tighten the budget during booms to prevent overspending and financial bubbles. The problem is that Politicians only listen to the first part and ignore the second part, often relying upon loose monetary policies to buttress their public support.
While it's easy to blame Biden for the inflationary problem, it honestly goes back to monetary policies in the Dot Com Bubble and the Great Financial Crisis of the 2000s. After each economic crisis, the US faced, successive administrations promoted greater and greater economic stimulus without implementing austerity and it required more and more of a bailout to keep the bubble from all that cheap money from collapsing the entire economy.
This inflationary crisis was going to happen eventually but it was fast-tracked by the economic war with China by Trump which killed Chimerica whereby yuan devaluation through the purchases would act as a deflationary check on prices and his tax cuts and first COVID check were also big contributors though Biden didn't help by continuing many of the same policies and issuing even more stimulus.
Regarding Biden's impeachment, while I agree that impeaching and replacing him with Kamala Harris would be disastrous for the country, long-term planning and having a broader perspective is not something politicians in America seems very capable of doing. I think there is a strong possibility of it occurring because it is likely Republicans will win a strong majority in the mid-terms and many of them are still furious about Trump being impeached once but twice. Moreover, having another inept leader like Kamala Harris succeed an unpopular Biden would further discredit the Democratic party and prevent the Democrats from shifting blame for everything on Biden alone.
While I do see further saber-rattling in Asia as the Democratic party comes under attack, I do not see the Biden Administration intentionally starting a war with China. They simply want the appearance of strength in foreign policy to offset their domestic failures. However, there is also a possibility of a miscalculation by the US from crossing China's redlines and triggering a war by accident. That is what I believe happened with Ukraine, whereby the US pushed Russia into a corner and trigger an invasion that Putin didn't want.