Miscellaneous News

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Here is a quiz: how long did it take China to switch from its one-child policy, to adopting two-children policy, to three-children policy and to offer incentives to encourage Chinese parents giving birth to more children? Do you know it's projected that this year China will have a negative population growth this year?
Not quick enough It seems, birth rate started to decrease long before they have the economy to support incentives like they can now, so it could be that before they wanted to focus on allocating resources into improving their economy, than to spend those resources into marginal increases in birth rate, as we can see with other countries spending heavily in welfare to attempt keeping their birth rate stable or higher. I've posted what I think about the problem in the demographic thread, its not a problem solvable by incentives alone, they need to tackle this from multiple factors like societal, cultural and economical pressures to effectively increase birthrate, and those require a lot of planning and a long time to execute, to see the results.
 

weig2000

Captain
Not quick enough It seems, birth rate started to decrease long before they have the economy to support incentives like they can now, so it could be that before they wanted to focus on allocating resources into improving their economy, than to spend those resources into marginal increases in birth rate, as we can see with other countries spending heavily in welfare to attempt keeping their birth rate stable or higher. I've posted what I think about the problem in the demographic thread, its not a problem solvable by incentives alone, they need to tackle this from multiple factors like societal, cultural and economical pressures to effectively increase birthrate, and those require a lot of planning and a long time to execute, to see the results.

Once a strategy or major policy is in place, particularly for a long time, it'll become very difficult to change due to institutional inertia, built-in mindset, vested interest and, indeed, averse to risk (asymmetric though). China's demographic changes had been developing and building up for some years now and the data painted a rather clear picture. Many people and experts had warned about the dangerous trend for years. In fact, one can also learn what's ahead from the experiences of other countries, particularly East Asian countries. Still, the leadership had waited too long to act, and when they did act, they moved cautiously. Alas, the trend had become so clear and the data unmistaken, then they accelerated and almost changed the policy every year. The problem is, once you missed the tide, it's very difficult to make up and recover the loss. In this case, the size of childbearing population is dwindling.

Now, in case, some members here become too defensive and claim China has very large population and can afford negative population growth, we're talking about demographic composition and worsening trend not absolute size of population.

Feel free to apply this to other major, burning policies of the day.
 

KYli

Brigadier
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Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australia was "deeply disappointed" and continued to seek details of the terms of the agreement, noting that the signing had been announced by China.

She also expressed concern about a lack of transparency and said the pact had the "potential to undermine stability in our region."
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Energy security is upmost important for China right now. And both the EU and the US have little leverages to pressure China to use less coal due to both the deterioration of relationship and their own inability to reduce reliance of fossil fuels.
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There's a conspiracy going around that both US and EU is promoting renewable energy in order to compromise other countries' energy security, because its less scalable and stable.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Where did you sniffed this conspiracy from if you don't me asking
Mostly from twitter bros that talk about energy cliff and EROEI, but I've seen some of those users who believe in "Globohomo" conspiracy repost those thread as well. The alternative to the narrative I've seen some of the users share is the global cabal is trying push US towards renewable energy, to compromise their own energy security.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Mostly from twitter bros that talk about energy cliff and EROEI, but I've seen some of those users who believe in "Globohomo" conspiracy repost those thread as well. The alternative to the narrative I've seen some of the users share is the global cabal is trying push US towards renewable energy, to compromise their own energy security.
Energy cliff, Energy Trap, these are all real physical concepts fyi, no conspiracy anything

EROEI is way more real than EBITDA
 
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