What would China do when Russia rolled the assets to Ukraine?
I am still not fully convinced Russia wants to invade Ukraine.
What would be the end game? A full annexation is ridiculous and untenable, while taking just the Russian majority half does very little to change the broader Russian grievance of NATO expansion.
I feel it is more likely that China has made up its mind that its time to take Taiwan back, and this is both Russia playing decoy, and also planting some options for future moves to undermine NATO.
The Russians are making way too much noise about invading Ukraine when they can’t win such a fight against a determined US led NATO interventional (even going nuclear will not win him the fight, since best came scenario there is that it ends up as a draw). It’s almost like they are trying to get the US to commit massive military forces to Eastern Europe to guard against such a Russian invasion. Would be mean those US military forces are not available to be rapidly deployed against China in a Taiwan reunification scenario.
America seems to also smell something fishy, and it’s military response to all the Russian threats are conspicuous in its absence, which is not a great look for NATO.
If and when China takes Taiwan and America deploys the bulk of its best forces into Asia, it will leave Ukraine and NATO high and dry. Because without massive American military commitments, NATO has no viable military option against a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But then the original question of what Russia’s endgame in such an invasion comes back into play. Unless the whole point is to show how weak and toothless NATO has become as America refocuses on Asia and China. But that seems like a lot of costs and risks to play for so little return. It might be worth it if Putin thinks he can somehow leverage an invasion of Ukraine to collapse NATO, but I just cannot see how that will actually work.