Miscellaneous News

ansy1968 said:

@KenC bro there are many rumors regarding the murder of Aquino, I had my owned conspiracy theory and it may involved the CIA, there are 5 questions needed to be ask 1) Aquino is exiled in the US and having a good life why would he risk his life knowingly he would be arrested if he return home 2) he is a former agent of the CIA 3) why would the Philippine gov't kill him and make a martyr out of him. 4) who will benefit if there is a crisis. 5) the killer Rolando Galman who let him enter a heavily secured area of the Airport.

Click to expand...

Hey brother, yeah, some old stuff, but good stuff, as I believe the American version or theory of the assassination.

President Marcos (a note for the younger generations here, when we say President Marcos, it means he was the leader, but he was not elected, President Marcos was a US backed dictator with American bases in the region, necessary to deter communism), did not order the hit.

The Americans believed that factions in the army wanted to do the hit, in order to curry favour with President Marcos. Such that this was just doing something to get promoted. They knew they would get away with it, because given how the power structures were between the Americans and President Marcos, during that Cold War era.

I thought that logic was plausible, and it seemed bang on, given later events where nothing happened to President Marcos until the Cold War was over. After the Berlin Wall fell, President Marcos disappeared just like that!

Petrolicious88 said:

4 is not enough?

Click to expand...

It's not enough.

The only power in the region that can help America in a war against China is Japan. No one else has enough power to do squat in the region against China.

In Japan's case, its calculations are simple.

The East China Sea they do not really control, not at all.

The South China Sea they definitely do not control at all.

Most of their commercial shipping passes through Chinese controlled waters, their economic life line can be cut off by the PLAN.

Japan getting into a war with China, it will turn into a war for survival for Japan. China will try to dismember Japan if Japan gets into a war with China. Japan would be fighting a defensive war forever basically.

People generally are not that foolish. Japan is not coming to the action.

horse said:

It's not enough.

The only power in the region that can help America in a war against China is Japan. No one else has enough power to do squat in the region against China.

In Japan's case, its calculations are simple.

The East China Sea they do not really control, not at all.

The South China Sea they definitely do not control at all.

Most of their commercial shipping passes through Chinese controlled waters, their economic life line can be cut off by the PLAN.

Japan getting into a war with China, it will turn into a war for survival for Japan. China will try to dismember Japan if Japan gets into a war with China. Japan would be fighting a defensive war forever basically.

People generally are not that foolish. Japan is not coming to the action.

Click to expand...

The most important thing is for China to be absolutely vicious and inflict terrible injuries on the US immediately. Be ready with a shit ton of hypersonic nukes aimed at all major US cities in case the US dares escalate past those injuries (which looks like what China's buildup is about right now). Just seeing that, all of the little lackie countries will change from military support to diplomatic and moral support. If they see China losing or fighting a limited balanced fight, they will jump in for credit. If they see the US take suddenly take unexpectedly harsh and terrible losses, they will change their ships midcourse and say they were just on a sailing exercise. This is just like the schoolyard; they want to team up and bully China and the more they see it working the more they want to jump in and the bigger the party gets. If they see bully king get his lower jaw separated from his face in the first 5 seconds of the fight, they all start whistling and walking home like they didn't even know him that well.

sinophilia said:

I can't imagine any other country joining them though. It's always been the case that China has expected the Anglo world and their Japanese sex slave to contribute to platforms in the AO and possibly even combat platforms. If even I knew this then I'm sure China came to that conclusion a long time ago..

Other than those four there really doesn't seem to be much potential. Sure, maybe countries like Germany or Poland or Italy or even South Korea will give some kind of tacit support. Maybe allow aerial refueling, overflight, use of bases for logistics, intelligence sharing, etc. but I highly doubt they'd ever get directly involved outside of a support role.

You could have in some scenarios India or Vietnam or Philippines joining in. Mostly as base use or even limited operations (Vietnam using its subs, India trying to seize some territory). But I think even those countries know how absolutely awful it would be if China wasn't permanently crippled in that same conflict. Imagine having to live with China for the rest of Human history after performing such a sneak attack. Therefore I highly doubt even those SCS nations or India would get involved in such a direct manner. Support for the Anglos and their puppet slave state in Japan? Sure, but I doubt they get involved in direct combat operations. I'm sure China would actually wish they did though, it would give China the excuse to seize all the SCS islands Vietnam controls and all the disputed territory with India.

As for the matter of South Korea... not in a billion years. Again a support role is possible after severe US pressure, but can you imagine them actually becoming directly involved? China basically shares a land border with them through North Korea. Nothing would suit China better than to have the South Koreans join. It would justify an invasion of the South and a permanent eradication of the American presence on the mainland, possibly for all time.

Click to expand...

On top of that, I do not see the Russians standing idly by in a situation like that, because in the end that same group+additionals would end up targeting them too (as recent events in Europe are also demonstrating), so in the end any direct conflict against either is going to end up facing both China and Russia together whether it starts in Eastern Europe or Asia.

sinophilia said:

Not it isn't. If they want to cripple China in a limited operation against Taiwan or Senkaku or really anything in China's sphere they are going to have to bring the industrial capacity of most of Humanity.

The US by itself is a worthy challenger currently, but once China surpasses it in most aspects do you really think that adding a dying Japan and the UK and Australia (whose economies even today are roughly 1/10th that of China let alone in some distant future) is going to add much value?

Click to expand...

I think china now already poses significant challenge to the US. 80 miles off of Chinese cost, it will already be difficult for US to defeat China. Exactly why US is trying to combine forces with AU, UK, Japan, and possibly India and Korea; disperse their forces to prevent saturation attacks by Chinese missiles, etc... etc..

sinophilia said:

Not it isn't. If they want to cripple China in a limited operation against Taiwan or Senkaku or really anything in China's sphere they are going to have to bring the industrial capacity of most of Humanity.

The US by itself is a worthy challenger currently, but once China surpasses it in most aspects do you really think that adding a dying Japan and the UK and Australia (whose economies even today are roughly 1/10th that of China let alone in some distant future) is going to add much value?

Click to expand...

The UK has six SSN's which could be pretty useful.

Petrolicious88 said:

I think china now already poses significant challenge to the US. 80 miles off of Chinese cost, it will already be difficult for US to defeat China. Exactly why US is trying to combine forces with AU, UK, Japan, and possibly India and Korea; disperse their forces to prevent saturation attacks by Chinese missiles, etc... etc..

Click to expand...

It only works if they actually have assets that are threatening. UK and Australia are far away and can't really project power independently.

Petrolicious88 said:

I think china now already poses significant challenge to the US. 80 miles off of Chinese cost, it will already be difficult for US to defeat China. Exactly why US is trying to combine forces with AU, UK, Japan, and possibly India and Korea; disperse their forces to prevent saturation attacks by Chinese missiles, etc... etc..

Click to expand...

Indeed, Taiwan will be a piece of cake. The problem is ensuring that China has more strategic depth after such a conflict so that China isn't operating in a strategic environment that is significantly inferior to the US one. Right now the US has the fortune of having two large oceans that separate them from any hostile intent for thousands of miles on either side. China is comparatively locked in.

When the invasion of Taiwan happens, I really do hope the Japanese get involved. This would allow for not only seizing Senkaku/Diayou but also the lower part of the Ryukyu island chain.



The Yaeyama and Miyako island chain have ~100,000 people cumulatively, Daito has a population of ~2,000 people. Easily doable without a massive insurgency that causes endless civilian deaths and global public condemnation, especially if it's done in response to Japanese combat involvement in a conflict that China didn't involve them in. The Ryukyuan people that inhabit these territories are the most ethnically and culturally distinct of all Ryukyuan's as well and probably won't be as hostile as people might imagine. Definitely no insurgency like Afghanistan, not even close. It will be more like the Hong Kong protests if anything, hell probably less than that.




Whoops no more First Island Chain. China now has strategic depth and flexibility across the Western Pacific and both mainland Japan and Guam/NMI are more within China's capacity to screw with than to be used by the US in the other way around. China controls or dominates most of the SCS and ECS and the US posturing ability is crippled. Suddenly now [in blue above] Okinawa and the rest of the island chain used by the US to place the vast majority of their forces are trapped and sitting ducks. For exercises, for weapons tests, for real combat, anything really. It will become a casualty hole more than anything in some potential second conflict in the future and likely ends up being abandoned by the US.

Leaving the Philippines and South Korea out of my excessive red arrow overkill because I doubt they'd ever want to be involved after a conflict like what will happen with Taiwan assuming US/JPN/UK/AUS involvement. They wouldn't be much useful at this point anyway and most US forces would end up centering their position on the Japanese mainland and begging for small island bases near to Guam and NMI.



"A free and open Indo-Pacific" just as promised and finally delivered.

manqiangrexue said:

The most important thing is for China to be absolutely vicious and inflict terrible injuries on the US immediately. Be ready with a shit ton of hypersonic nukes aimed at all major US cities in case the US dares escalate past those injuries (which looks like what China's buildup is about right now). Just seeing that, all of the little lackie countries will change from military support to diplomatic and moral support. If they see China losing or fighting a limited balanced fight, they will jump in for credit. If they see the US take suddenly take unexpectedly harsh and terrible losses, they will change their ships midcourse and say they were just on a sailing exercise. This is just like the schoolyard; they want to team up and bully China and the more they see it working the more they want to jump in and the bigger the party gets. If they see bully king get his lower jaw separated from his face in the first 5 seconds of the fight, they all start whistling and walking home like they didn't even know him that well.

Click to expand...

@manqiangrexue bro right now any damage big or small spell the doom of American exceptionalism and imperial power, the reason they're spread to thin and the resources are not there to sustain a major conflict. Take the Serbia campaign as an example, with the full might of NATO and the US how many days does it to take to pummel a small country to submission and Serbia don't have the capability to hit back, what more of China.

The US expect its allies to take the initial damage while they will be cavalry that saves the day, typical Hollywood stereotype scenario, well its allies except for the 5 eyes aren't that stupid, having toil and work hard to build a prosperous living why would they sacrifice it, demonizing China with its military threat had a desired opposite effect, they don't want to be apart of any US misadventure, thus the pushback. The American should realized that trouble is brewing within its alliances cause the cons outweigh the pros, fractures are visible that may lead to Spring of discontent.

Petrolicious88 said:

I think china now already poses significant challenge to the US. 80 miles off of Chinese cost, it will already be difficult for US to defeat China. Exactly why US is trying to combine forces with AU, UK, Japan, and possibly India and Korea; disperse their forces to prevent saturation attacks by Chinese missiles, etc... etc..

Click to expand...

US might win without Indian support but will definitely lose with it. Once India is involved the whole combat strategy would be leaked to Twitter on the second day.