A pipeline and a confab. Truly tectonic, world-shaking events, "Sino"Soldier.
Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
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Lol I think you haven't seen the news
Plus, China being friendly with Russia doesn't mean it will unconditionally surrender Central Asia to Russia
Wouldn't be surprised they talked about it at the SCO meeting some time ago.
How and why the travels you made from Europe to America have impacted you as a Chinese citizen and one that's also served to the country’s military. What was your views or preconceived notions of these countries you visited before, was it positive, neutral or borderline hostile/negative?
The reasons why am asking is people regardless of background and status can and will sometimes end up absorbing, modifying, or codifying certain traits, practices, and philosophies of countries visited and or be influenced from the people interacted along the way.
Now, having said that, the things you experienced, learned and found invaluable would there be something or anything you would love for China to incorporate into the country so that it'll help itself further it's goals and achieve the continued success towards not only for the next decade but the next century and beyond. And in your esteemed opinion, name the top 5 causes of China's drawbacks that in your mind may never be addressed due to the inherent limitations and weaknesses of the one party state.
As per my doubts regarding your service with the PLA I guess my incredulity comes from knowing a few people that I met in my life that has served in their countries militaries that tend to be more patriotic/nationalistic compared to their civilian counterparts and these are soldiers from "Democratic" countries and are not even that strong militarily in relative terms compared to the top military forces in the world. Your commentaries come off (IMHO) as muted criticism, expressing doubts on the veracity of the claims made by the Chinese government; and sometimes dismissive of China's military capabilities especially in comparison to her neighbours in Asia i.e. India, Japan, and worst of all the island of Taiwan.
Pointedly, your insights -- again this is just my observations -- do not come across or bring that much value to any discussions military or otherwise. It's like the starting premise of your arguments are China is doo doo; China is in deep hurt if it does X,Y,Z,...Please don't get me wrong, am not suggesting that your credibility hinges on the need for you or anyone here to be a cheerleader for anything China not at all. It's actually good to read contrarian viewpoints and even critical views on anything that's related to China based on objective set of facts, data and not on political jaundice, meaning to say because China is run by a one party system and not western Democratic it's inherently deficient and wrong. I just thought that as an educated and a person that had the distinction and privileged of serving in the PLA that a person of your caliber would be more measured, cerebral, and discipline with respect to your thoughts posts. But more often than not I find your deductions on many topics hollow and wholly unimpressive. What am saying is that your c.v. does not match or even rise to the level of your supposed expertise based on the fluff and puff you have written so far.
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Wait. Does the mandatory military training even count? If I remember correctly, it is only several months of basic instruction.
He is confusing mandatory university/college run military instructions (学校军训) for new entrants with actual PLA boot camps. The former usually takes place in August and lasts only weeks or days depending on the secondary institution. The latter actually requires the person to join PLA first. Most school-run training sessions are contracted out to private companies that are separated from PLA. Although good universities tend to hire companies that employ ex PLA instructors.
Well I did participate in mandatory university/college run military instructions required for most college students, so that was why I got myself quite familiar with the Type-81-1 folding stock rifle and made some friends in the PAP. As with my experience though, I will say that I am a defensive realist when it comes to perspective for my country's foreign policy. Why, because I believe Mr. Hare should avoid any military conflicts until the PLA can achieve certain numerical and qualitative edge over its adversaries, namely the QUAD. In the meantime, since China is already surrounded by highly predatory and opportunistic adversaries (Mr. Chicken/crane, Mr. Bald-Head, Mr. Elephant, and Mr. Monkey all backed by Mr. Bald Eagle), it should avoid making new ones (such as encroaching into Mr. Hairy Bear's traditional sphere of influence in the short term).
In short, if the PLA could defeat the combined forces of Taiwan and the QUAD in a Waterloo-like battle (but much bigger scale), then my people could just sit back and enjoy Pax-Sinica. As tempting as such thoughts are for many Chinese citizens, there are many risks that could derail such wet dream.
Firstly, there is simply no guarantee that the QUAD would not use nuclear weapons if they face a conventional defeat, so it is vital for the PLA to reach nuclear parity with the US before pulling anything on Taiwan. This will take at least until 2025-2027, if not after 2030, when new plutonium facilities would be completed in Jiuquan. Secondly, as the U.S. military begin to field hypersonic intermediate range weapons starting in 2023, the Chinese military industrial complex would have to work hard to sustain the PLA's numerical advantage in this field, while keeping the associated costs down. That would require more smart defense spending that would bolster the PLA's advantages, but not waste money on systems that the PLA does not yet have an advantage (for example, the carrier and large warship programs may have to be delayed in favour of more hypersonic missiles, submarines, and J-20s). Thirdly, should there be a Taiwan contingency, China would be fighting a two-front war because India will surely take advantage of the crisis and try to take back Aksa Chin and provoke insurgencies in Tibet. This means a significant portion of the PLAAF would have to be reserved for usage on the Western Front. Finally, China does not have any reliable treaty allies right now. Therefore, it is time for China to try to use its economic influence to woo Pakistan and North Korea with hope of upgrading relations with these two countries into alliances where the two could lend support to China should Beijing enter into a fight with QUAD.
In general, I just think China is not yet prepared to take up such fight over Taiwan, which would mean the life or death to the People's Republic. However, time is still on Beijing's side, and it needs start mobilizing for it militarily, diplomatically, and economically. And don't start a war unless you are prepared.
+++ This.
I just don't understand what the point of this is.
It doesn't change anything diplomatically. It certainly doesn't improve your position with regards to China/Independence. The only thing it does is invite PRC aggression. So you are basically one step away from starting a war, majority of the population does not want a war, so why is she throwing rocks at a lion? I guess she really enjoys the adulation of green camp's keyboard brigadiers and white/banana Americans.
The problem for China is basically everything they have is basically a "nuclear" weapon. 50% of the economy of Taiwan is tied to Mainland China. PRC could nationalize all property owned by Taiwan companies that are not held by "loyal" Chinese tomorrow and the entirety of Taipei would be in disarray. So what card is there to play really? DPP and USA are happy to make piecemeal moves because they placate domestic voters. PRC has no need for these, so the only response are less glamourous things like Pineapple bans. Even with the USA, this is the same calculus (over Taiwan anyway). Once an invasion is triggered, the onus is on the US to respond to it. If the resistance is token, do you even bother? (Crimea scenario) Is the USN ready to test the real world effectiveness of the DF-21 anti ship version? If something like a carrier is sunk, does that strengthen the resolve or crush all will?
Long post
Same with the Large Warship programs who will be in heavy demand by the theater commands during wartime
We shouldnt forget that weapons, ships and aircrafts, are intended to be a part of a bigger system which exist for serving strategic, tactical objectives. And China has a multitude of such objectives/requirements in every war domain and for development interests
This is such a complex matter that we cannot possibly analyse in a few paragraphs
I would just say that while not having many such "allies", China has managed to ensure a large number of countries to stay neutral in a potential military campaign scenario
Look at the low value industries which left China, almost all of them went to ASEAN and very few went to Pakistan
There is too much corruption, and too much red-tape which makes foreign investment very difficult
Ofc that doesn't mean that Pakistan isnt an Allie or friend. I just mean that Pakistan has significant internal problems.
However, lets not forget that Pakistan and China cooperate on India, which is beneficial for China-Pakistan national interests. And finally, their military establishment is formidable and can ensure stability at times of crisis in Pakistan (important for China to see them as a stable country). Very impressive
Overall, for China, Pakistan is ok. Nobody is asking them to go to war against the US. Just being there and pinning down India is enough for China. I dont see any big problem/issue in this bilateral relation. In fact I see an even brighter future for these 2 countries to get even closer with each other
By 2027 it should be sufficiently strong in all areas to reunify with Taiwan
A broadly correct strategic advice. However that also doesn't mean that China will be a doormat for Russia on Central Asia. China has credible, and serious concerns about terrorism spilling over from Afghanistan to Tajikistan and eventually to China and other countries on the region
For the PLA yes. For the PRC as a country, military solution is not preferable.
Indeed. Thats why we see a nuclear build up happening now. I would say your timeframe of 2025-2027 is correct
Carriers and large warships programs serve their own purpose and there is a reason why the PLAN is getting them. For example, in a blockade on Taiwan, they would help on enforcing the blockade and extending the monitor capabilities of the PLAN
Same with the Large Warship programs who will be in heavy demand by the theater commands during wartime
We shouldnt forget that weapons, ships and aircrafts, are intended to be a part of a bigger system which exist for serving strategic, tactical objectives. And China has a multitude of such objectives/requirements in every war domain and for development interests
This is true. Which why is I advocate for a quick resolution by whatever means, of the border dispute with India. We will have to see how will China pressure India to come to the table and drop their clownish demands
This has always been part of the diplomatic policy of the PRC. I personally disagree with that policy but I can also see the positives of China dont crossing the "alliance" line.
This is such a complex matter that we cannot possibly analyse in a few paragraphs
I would just say that while not having many such "allies", China has managed to ensure a large number of countries to stay neutral in a potential military campaign scenario
Pakistan's economy is a big mess, unfortunately. The IMF has to bail them out or give them a debt extension something like every year. China is trying to help with CPEC but their politics and bureaucracy are too slow to get a big advantage of it.
Look at the low value industries which left China, almost all of them went to ASEAN and very few went to Pakistan
There is too much corruption, and too much red-tape which makes foreign investment very difficult
Ofc that doesn't mean that Pakistan isnt an Allie or friend. I just mean that Pakistan has significant internal problems.
However, lets not forget that Pakistan and China cooperate on India, which is beneficial for China-Pakistan national interests. And finally, their military establishment is formidable and can ensure stability at times of crisis in Pakistan (important for China to see them as a stable country). Very impressive
Overall, for China, Pakistan is ok. Nobody is asking them to go to war against the US. Just being there and pinning down India is enough for China. I dont see any big problem/issue in this bilateral relation. In fact I see an even brighter future for these 2 countries to get even closer with each other
I assume you know the problems with N.Korea. China wants to increase relations with it but there are significant hurdles. I will leave it that
It could take it today if it wanted. The problem is on the 2nd Island chain, and any potential blockades. So ultimately, i agree with you.
By 2027 it should be sufficiently strong in all areas to reunify with Taiwan
All these are already happening as we are speaking. However some things take time
Obviously. However we should also remember that the other party also gets a vote on when to start a war. China might want to delay it to 2027 or even more. However if the US for some reason says that tommorow we have war, then China cant do anything to stop a war from happening
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These "journalists" are literally talking about the US when talking about China. The strenght of this cognitive dissonance is unreal ! How is this even possible ? Are these people that fanatic (i.e. Anglo-american/western supremacists) or just insane ?