Yup, this and the Evergrande crisis means its game over for China. Gordon Chang finally wins.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Yup, this and the Evergrande crisis means its game over for China. Gordon Chang finally wins.
China is collapsing, now, then, ALWAYS. China will be in imminent collapse next year when it’s GDP is up by $2 trillion from the last year, it will be on the precipice of collapse in 5 years when it surpasses the US in nominal GPD, it will be about to collapse in 10 years when it reaches a GDP PPP per capita close to the European average, it will be collapsing ‘any month now’ in 20 years when it produces twice as much economic value as the US every year.
In 30 years or more, even in the scenario where China has colonized multiple planets and has economic output multiple times all of Western Civilization, even as they teeter on bankruptcy with suicides, drug overdoses, mass shootings, ghetto culture, and baseless primitive violence that exceeds their worst nightmares, they will still be toxically describing the imminent destruction of the one nation which is a civilization unto itself.
Don't believe me?
How far have we come after all, since the Coming Collapse of China (2001) was published.
Coming Collapse:
In the process of imminent collapse:
Eh, I guess it's only a 1,148% increase in output. That's just like, a 12.5x increase in annual output. I mean, what is that over a decade, like only $166 trillion added to GDP over a decade period, that assuming China is stuck at 2021 GDP for the next decade which it obviously won't be. China will probably add $240 trillion in aggregate output of goods and services over the next decade. No big fuss, just a country on the verge of imminent collapse.
In 30 years or more, even in the scenario where China has colonized multiple planets and has economic output multiple times all of Western Civilization, even as they teeter on bankruptcy with suicides, drug overdoses, mass shootings, ghetto culture, and baseless primitive violence that exceeds their worst nightmares, they will still be toxically describing the imminent destruction of the one nation which is a civilization unto itself.
Don't believe me?
How far have we come after all, since the Coming Collapse of China (2001) was published.
Coming Collapse:
In the process of imminent collapse:
Eh, I guess it's only a 1,148% increase in output. That's just like, a 12.5x increase in annual output. I mean, what is that over a decade, like only $166 trillion added to GDP over a decade period, that assuming China is stuck at 2021 GDP for the next decade which it obviously won't be. China will probably add $240 trillion in aggregate output of goods and services over the next decade. No big fuss, just a country on the verge of imminent collapse.
What really gets me is that AUKUS nuclear sub deal.
They actually gave us a time frame of when that first boat will be put into action, into hostile territory.
20 years for the first submarine from AUKUS to be put on the front line, to contain China.
20 years from now, China probably will be twice the size of America's economy. ASEAN will double it economic output too in less than 20 years.
The best way for China to counter AUKUS is what they are doing now, which is diplomacy. China just only has to say that the AUKUS is militarizing the region. ASEAN will think the same way.
That is the truth. China and ASEAN making deals, economic growth is a priority, aka development. For others, it is all about armaments.
Gordon Chang was wrong in his predictions of a China collapse.
But Comrade Chang never went this far. ASEAN and China economic growth, will be countered by AUKUS submarines and aircraft carriers, along with the occasional European warship sailing in the middle of nowhere in the South China Sea.
Then they give you a free lecture of how and why ASEAN and China must trade with the west, the same west putting more military hardware into the region.
It's like the west wants to turn ASEAN and China into another Afghanistan. Comrade Chang never went that far.
The recent power rotation and rationing in China is a brilliant move by killing multiple birds with on stone. Due to covid related constraints, many orders for western consumer goods are circling back to China, which are in large part fulfilled by Taiwanese companies or local private companies. China was already suffering labor shortage, energy shortage and logistics shortage before this rush toward the holiday buyings. This time, China wisely decides that it serves its fundamental interests not to take on those unwanted and unfavorable orders for low-end manufacturing goods. It just does not worth it, all things considered, including but not limited to climate pressure and inflation pressure. The kick is that those orders have razor thin margins and benefit destination countries than their manufacturing origins.
I have been thinking of how the money issuing matter works in international trade. Here is the thought.
In a perfect balanced market, there is only one authority issuing printed money that equals to the size of product circulating the market. Let's say there are 1000 clothes and 1000 kg rice produced in last year, there should have been equivalent amount of money for that 1000 clothes and 1000 kg rice, let's say 20'000 RMB (10 rmb per cloth, 10 RMB per kg rice). After all these products are bought, the 20'000 RMB money should be returned to the bank, sitting in the vault. If this year, the production remains, these 20'000 will be used for the circulation again. If the production increased by 10%, there is a need to print 2000 RMB to represent that increase. The total amount of money in the economy becomes 22'000. There is no inflation and devaluation of the money.
In the past, trade between countries are done by gold or silver which has its own value that can not be just printed without cost. An exporter will be paid with gold then use the same gold to import. The price of gold is set by its production cost, not by a printing machine of an issuing bank.
Now, trade is carried out by printed money which has ignoble value by its own. That present a problem as who should be issuing the right amount of money to support the international circulation? That authority must issue the amount of money according to the trade volume. For example, Chinese product is exported to US. Who is going to hold/issue money to support that circulation? Neither China nor US is willing to give up that authority. The reality is that US print USD to pay for the import, China get the USD on the condition that they can be used to buy oil which is priced in USD. In the mean time, China print corresponding amount of RMB of those USDs for the Chinese exporters to buy things in China. So the same amount of product has been double represented by RMB and USD. It won't be a problem for inflation as long as one of the representations is sitting in a bank vault never going to the market. This is how it has been working all these decades. When Chinese entities need to import oil or raw material, they put their RMB in Chinese Bank's vault, get USD and buy abroad.
This will be changed if countries become willing to accept RMB instead of USD. When this happens, the proper way (in pure monetary terms) is to destroy those "double representing" USD when the corresponding RMB left Chinese boundary. But why would China do that instead of using the "extra" USD to buy things that somebody is still willing to accept USD? The "selfish" way is to push RMB to replace USD while spending USD as much as possible before it becomes useless.
The bottom line is that the world market has been filled with over printed money. The "over representation" has been kept in check because most countries agree to use USD as the "only" trading currency. Once people switch to new currency, USD that does not represent US production volume has to be withdrawn from circulation or becomes waste paper.
I think China is willing to overpay with dollar for one thing so long as the recipient is willing to switch to RMB for other things.
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Why don't they just print $100billion worth of rmb and do a currency swap for doing this deal?
Russia already does not accept $US. All their energy exports to Europe are paid in euros, and trade between China and Russia are mostly in rmb and rubles.
For China, Japan and other countries, they have been maintaining a certain level of US treasuries which still pay some interests. Why would they hold $US which is crap, when they can earn interests by holding $US bonds instead?
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It is not just about what China want, but the other end has to be willing. For the other end, they still see the need of USD in the near future. The de-dollarization is not an event can be forced on the world over night. That kind of thing only happens when a single authority like national central bank forced everyone to switch the older version of the print with newer one.
India being a caste society was always going to have a “deep state” along the lines of Anglo style feudalism and oligarchy; given the Anglo sympathisers in India and the jealousy and hatred by India forwards China, even a “non aligned” India will be hostile to China.
Watch that 9 year old video which shows how India would like to be "when" it became economically powerful (lol).
They are the Japanese version of "honourary whites"