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weig2000

Captain
voyager1 said:
Disagree with that (militarily). The PLA is still not procuring massive numbers of landing ships to move troops and land in Taiwan. Their amphibious sea-lifting capabilities have not seen the necessary investment to make possible a Taiwan invasion.
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I know you got this notion from a certain moderator at SDF and took it as gospel. I don't want to go into details about the military preparation that China has been taking for a long long time. This also is not the first time China is seriously considering take military actions against Taiwan under the threat of Taiwan provocations. From 2000 to 2008, China was actively preparing to do so, and had rush built a series of equipment specifically for Taiwan contingency at the time (e.g. Type 22 assault ships) that deviated from its long-term defense development plan; they also quickly imported some Russia arms for that purpose too.

It would be nice if China got more time and be in a better position before it can tackle the Taiwan problem militarily. But war seldomly breaks out when you're best prepared. In the history of PRC/CCP/PLA, it has been rare that China fought wars with overwhelming superiority over the adversary, to put it mildly. As much as China did not think military option is the best one, it has always had to prepare for the contingency. And they have.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating war or military actions against Taiwan. What I'm seeing are these reckless behaviors and actions from the US and Taiwan to constantly provoke and salami-slice. They're delusional and refuse to learn from history. This is very dangerous.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
I know you got this notion from a certain moderator at SDF and took it as gospel. I don't want to go into details about the military preparation that China has been taking for a long long time. This also is not the first time China is seriously considering take military actions against Taiwan under the threat of Taiwan provocations. From 2000 to 2008, China was actively preparing to do so, and had rush built a series of equipment specifically for Taiwan contingency at the time (e.g. Type 22 assault ships) that deviated from its long-term defense development plan; they also quickly imported some Russia arms for that purpose too.

It would be nice if China got more time and be in a better position before it can tackle the Taiwan problem militarily. But war seldomly breaks out when you're best prepared. In the history of PRC/CCP/PLA, it has been rare that China fought wars with overwhelming superiority over the adversary, to put it mildly. As much as China did not think military option is the best one, it has always had to prepare the contingency. And they have.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating war or military actions against Taiwan. What I'm seeing are these reckless behaviors and actions from the US and Taiwan to constantly provoke and salami-slice. They're delusional and refuse to learn from history. This is very dangerous.
Click to expand...
Agreed with your post and logic wholeheartedly. If China were to overtly show that they were in a buying or building spree mode of the equipment and military vessels that can be interpreted and seen as a signal for a potential Taiwan operation the western world lead by America would have sprung up to action in no time and would have probably damage China's overall strategic plan with respect to it's economy, almost complete total independence from western supply chain or techn i.e. semiconductors

China's action and reaction do not happen in isolation or a vacuum or be ignored for that matter. Due to the impact and size of it's enormous economy the moment it sneezes the whole world reacts and gets affected whether they like it or not. So the notion or idea that any extreme military build up will make isn't going to make any of the western world's hair stand up is ignoring the current geopolitical narrative leveled against China despite what it says publicly and or what it states in terms of it's military posture and strategy which is for "DEFENSE OF THE MAINLAND AND ALL OF HER TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND NOT ONE INCH WILL BE SURRENDERED TO ANY ADVERSARY."

The west because of their deliberate ignorance, arrogance or both has continously ignore this stated fact. And because of this deliberate not to mention dangerous omission of Chinese stated objective, much of the public in the west are largely unaware of this very important fact. Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan are not something the 1.4 Billion Chinese are prepared to negotiate for something or anything especially for some dubious "Democracy" and "Freedom" b.s. The psyche of 100 years humiliation is entrenched in almost every single patriotic Chinese everywhere let alone in China.

The U.S. and the b..ch a..s Europeans can declare all their virtue signaling weak s...t all they like but at the end of the day, when push comes to shove, China will follow through on it's warning (military action) when the threshold is breached. It seems the west has a problem with their hearing, reading, and understanding comprehension. They still haven't learned from the Korean War when they were also amply warned not to cross the Yalu River or else. If the west want to repeat that episode then it'll be a different outcome this time around. The China of today isn't the China of 1950, broke as f..k and lagging in every measurable economic category. While the outcome in any conflict is never guaranteed, fighting against an opponent who has both the will and the spirit not to mention the righteousness in this possible conflict the advantage will be on China. The question is would there still be a world to live in.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
China is not rushing to spam amphibious assault assets right now because it doesn’t need them. China has literally been preparing for Taiwan for decades, and people honestly think they would only rush to procure the critical hardware they need just before they decide to actually pull the trigger on reunification?!

China has had the means to retake Taiwan by force for many years now, even with direct American military intervention. Everything since had been about reducing the cost of such an invasion for China and the PLA in terms of lives lost and damage sustained to wider infrastructure.

You will also have to be a fool to think any American direct military involvement will be able saving Taiwan rather than trying to trash China’s economic heartland of its eastern coast. If they can save Taiwan, that will be a bonus, but their primary aim going in will be to destroy critical infrastructure and key factories, both military and civilian. That is honestly the bigger threat. Because while China currently can quite feasibly obliterate the US surface fleet with its AShBMs, hypersonic missiles and vast array of conventional AShMs, USN SSGNs spamming cruise missiles at Chinese civilian targets will be harder to counter given the vast Chinese coastline makes it impossible to effectively defend all approaches.
 
quantumlight

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
China is not rushing to spam amphibious assault assets right now because it doesn’t need them. China has literally been preparing for Taiwan for decades, and people honestly think they would only rush to procure the critical hardware they need just before they decide to actually pull the trigger on reunification?!

China has had the means to retake Taiwan by force for many years now, even with direct American military intervention. Everything since had been about reducing the cost of such an invasion for China and the PLA in terms of lives lost and damage sustained to wider infrastructure.

You will also have to be a fool to think any American direct military involvement will be able saving Taiwan rather than trying to trash China’s economic heartland of its eastern coast. If they can save Taiwan, that will be a bonus, but their primary aim going in will be to destroy critical infrastructure and key factories, both military and civilian. That is honestly the bigger threat. Because while China currently can quite feasibly obliterate the US surface fleet with its AShBMs, hypersonic missiles and vast array of conventional AShMs, USN SSGNs spamming cruise missiles at Chinese civilian targets will be harder to counter given the vast Chinese coastline makes it impossible to effectively defend all approaches.
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America would be the greater fool to think in such a scenario its cities back in the homeland would be left untouched this time

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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
China is not rushing to spam amphibious assault assets right now because it doesn’t need them. China has literally been preparing for Taiwan for decades, and people honestly think they would only rush to procure the critical hardware they need just before they decide to actually pull the trigger on reunification?!

China has had the means to retake Taiwan by force for many years now, even with direct American military intervention. Everything since had been about reducing the cost of such an invasion for China and the PLA in terms of lives lost and damage sustained to wider infrastructure.

You will also have to be a fool to think any American direct military involvement will be able saving Taiwan rather than trying to trash China’s economic heartland of its eastern coast. If they can save Taiwan, that will be a bonus, but their primary aim going in will be to destroy critical infrastructure and key factories, both military and civilian. That is honestly the bigger threat. Because while China currently can quite feasibly obliterate the US surface fleet with its AShBMs, hypersonic missiles and vast array of conventional AShMs, USN SSGNs spamming cruise missiles at Chinese civilian targets will be harder to counter given the vast Chinese coastline makes it impossible to effectively defend all approaches.
Click to expand...
The moment China's mainland civilian and or military infrastructures are attacked then that's asking for Armageddon. There's not a single Chinese leader civilian or otherwise that would stand or fold the moment the mainland is attacked with devastating missiles. There has to be an escalatory response to the U.S. military installations wherever they maybe in Asia-pacific. But that's perhaps what the U.S. would expect and want China to do is to attack the military installations or bases in Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Guam etc..in order to widen the scope and objectives of the potential conflict involving other countries military to enter the war against China. Especially if the attacks against the mainland were to come from the countries mentioned above. Whereas China's objective is to limit the scope of the conflict within it's scope vis-a-vis R.O.C. and U.S. against the PLA. Plus, I don't know how other Quad members is going to partake or involve in this particular hypothetical conflict.

Australia is more than likely a participant since they have said it as much publicly regardless of whether the statements made by their politicians are simply for political reasons they must be believed. And then there's India, what would be the potential action when the Taiwan conflict starts, would it make a move at the disputed border; would it make or join the Americans in their attempt of protecting Taiwan from China's military operation. What would Russia do in this scenario? Would they remain neutral or would they back their supposed partner China in this future conflict or would they use this golden opportunity to weaken China by making their own moves against her...sort of the same situation during the Imperial Russia when it made it's move in Xinjiang, Mongolia and the taking of Vladivostok in 1860.

There's a lot of unforeseen scenarios that could potentially unfold at the event that a war breaks out in Taiwan. I don't know if the conflict is going to be strictly geopolitically or geographically isolated war or will it expand into an even bigger conflict with far reaching consequences that maybe most of us have yet to fully comprehend or appreciate.
 
W

weig2000

Captain
Bellum_Romanum said:
Agreed with your post and logic wholeheartedly. If China were to overtly show that they were in a buying or building spree mode of the equipment and military vessels that can be interpreted and seen as a signal for a potential Taiwan operation the western world lead by America would have sprung up to action in no time and would have probably damage China's overall strategic plan with respect to it's economy, almost complete total independence from western supply chain or techn i.e. semiconductors

China's action and reaction do not happen in isolation or a vacuum or be ignored for that matter. Due to the impact and size of it's enormous economy the moment it sneezes the whole world reacts and gets affected whether they like it or not. So the notion or idea that any extreme military build up will make isn't going to make any of the western world's hair stand up is ignoring the current geopolitical narrative leveled against China despite what it says publicly and or what it states in terms of it's military posture and strategy which is for "DEFENSE OF THE MAINLAND AND ALL OF HER TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND NOT ONE INCH WILL BE SURRENDERED TO ANY ADVERSARY."

The west because of their deliberate ignorance, arrogance or both has continously ignore this stated fact. And because of this deliberate not to mention dangerous omission of Chinese stated objective, much of the public in the west are largely unaware of this very important fact. Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan are not something the 1.4 Billion Chinese are prepared to negotiate for something or anything especially for some dubious "Democracy" and "Freedom" b.s. The psyche of 100 years humiliation is entrenched in almost every single patriotic Chinese everywhere let alone in China.

The U.S. and the b..ch a..s Europeans can declare all their virtue signaling weak s...t all they like but at the end of the day, when push comes to shove, China will follow through on it's warning (military action) when the threshold is breached. It seems the west has a problem with their hearing, reading, and understanding comprehension. They still haven't learned from the Korean War when they were also amply warned not to cross the Yalu River or else. If the west want to repeat that episode then it'll be a different outcome this time around. The China of today isn't the China of 1950, broke as f..k and lagging in every measurable economic category. While the outcome in any conflict is never guaranteed, fighting against an opponent who has both the will and the spirit not to mention the righteousness in this possible conflict the advantage will be on China. The question is would there still be a world to live in.
Click to expand...

The reason that I posted Ms. Oriana Skylar Mastro's article in Foreign Affairs in Taiwan Military thread was because she seems to be the only one that also assesses the situation from China's perspective. The vast majority of the US opinions, by the media, think tanks, policy analysts, politicians and military professionals (the latter is actually slightly more realistic) almost without exceptions are from the US perspective with little or no understanding what the opposing party was thinking. For all the love affairs in the West with the Art of War, the first and foremost principle from Sun Tzu is "Know thyself and thy adversary to win a hundred battles" (“知己知彼，百战不殆”).

If they can understand Chinese--they don't need delve into the secret CCP documents, they only need to read all the public discussions to gain some appreciation of the motivation and determination of Chinese populace when it comes to Taiwan. The point is NOT that these public opinions and sentiment will pressure the Chinese leadership into taking haste military actions against Taiwan - they will contribute but are not the deciding factors; China is not a western democracy and no war mongering or constantly searching for enemy is needed - the point is that decisive military actions against Taiwan will by default carry uncertain risks that may require national sacrifice and consent of the general populace. I'm sure the Chinese leadership will take those into considerations when they weigh the tradeoffs between the "cost and sovereignty," as Ms. Oriana Skylar Mastro put it in her Foreign Affairs article.
 
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T

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
The moment China's mainland civilian and or military infrastructures are attacked then that's asking for Armageddon. There's not a single Chinese leader civilian or otherwise that would stand or fold the moment the mainland is attacked with devastating missiles. There has to be an escalatory response to the U.S. military installations wherever they maybe in Asia-pacific. But that's perhaps what the U.S. would expect and want China to do is to attack the military installations or bases in Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Guam etc..in order to widen the scope and objectives of the potential conflict involving other countries military to enter the war against China. Especially if the attacks against the mainland were to come from the countries mentioned above. Whereas China's objective is to limit the scope of the conflict within it's scope vis-a-vis R.O.C. and U.S. against the PLA. Plus, I don't know how other Quad members is going to partake or involve in this particular hypothetical conflict.

Australia is more than likely a participant since they have said it as much publicly regardless of whether the statements made by their politicians are simply for political reasons they must be believed. And then there's India, what would be the potential action when the Taiwan conflict starts, would it make a move at the disputed border; would it make or join the Americans in their attempt of protecting Taiwan from China's military operation. What would Russia do in this scenario? Would they remain neutral or would they back their supposed partner China in this future conflict or would they use this golden opportunity to weaken China by making their own moves against her...sort of the same situation during the Imperial Russia when it made it's move in Xinjiang, Mongolia and the taking of Vladivostok in 1860.

There's a lot of unforeseen scenarios that could potentially unfold at the event that a war breaks out in Taiwan. I don't know if the conflict is going to be strictly geopolitically or geographically isolated war or will it expand into an even bigger conflict with far reaching consequences that maybe most of us have yet to fully comprehend or appreciate.
Click to expand...
An attack on mainland China should be responded with an attack on US mainland.
China just like Russia should have an overwhelming capacity to end all life in the US. That's the only deterrent Washington understands
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
voyager1 said:
Oh the EU Parliament with its tricks again. Another attempt to salami slice the Taiwan issue against China

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Based Biden





Its coming folks. Salami-slicing continues. Lets see how China responds if the EU Commission bows to the pressure
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That won't happen. EU parliament is not a real parliament to be clear. It does not have the power to initiate legislation. This is in the EU treaty. I have read the treaty Q&A from the EU site and posted it in this forum when the EU parliament "blocked" the ratification of investment deal. I use quotation mark because the Q&A said clearly that EU parliament is obliged to ratify treaty draft put forward by the commission. The parliament is allowed to make non-essential modifications, almost like grammar and spelling check.

The EU commission can and will simply ignore the parliament's wish on Taiwan. It is only a wish not a request because parliament can not request. The commission picking this up will only happen if the EU states (presidents or prime ministers, chancellors) changed their mind all at the same time. That is almost impossible because that has to be unanimous, we are talking about 27 states.

The chance of that to happen is so little that it does not worth to discuss the response.
 
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V

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
voyager1 said:
Afghanistan military forces are constantly surrendering to the Taliban.

Taliban are now taking over US military equipment lmao

At this rate, Kabul might actually fall to the Taliban by September

(Links from found from pdf)
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1406148928236568577

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1404372107950186504

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1404471190379368455

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405815857306034178
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@voyager1 bro expect a troop surge instead of a withdrawal from the US, the reason to stabilized the Afghan gov't, I don't know why the US military establishment is so enamored with Afghanistan, I think there is a complicit cooperation between the Taliban and the Americans cause why not wait for the eventual US troops withdraw before attacking, it doesn't make any military sense.
 
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