The west is much bigger than Russia and is on the border with Russia. If Russia is grinding down ukraine, the west is grinding down Russia.
There could be a point where Russia collapses due to all the economic, social and manpower costs.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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There could be a point where Russia collapses due to all the economic, social and manpower costs.
The West did not save Ukraine with its shiny, over-engineered weapons.
If anything, the war exposed how slow a lot of Western military production really is.
Russia still outproduced NATO combined in several crucial wartime systems during the conflict.
Paradoxically, the thing that probably kept Ukraine militarily in the game the most was not some billion-dollar NATO hardware, but cheap Chinese-style garage drones and a highly asymmetric organization.
Small teams with improvised mass-produced systems, which favored the defender, ended up mattering more than a lot of the expensive prestige equipment everyone kept obsessing over.
How the West actually helped the most is by giving Ukraine economic survival in the form of hard currency.
Civilian industry got wrecked or converted toward the war far harder than in Russia, yet Ukraine could still import fuel, electricity, machinery, consumer goods, basically everything needed to keep society alive, because the West financed it all and took the burden.
Without that financial oxygen, Ukraine likely would have collapsed years ago.
Russian real wages have increased by around 25% since this war started.
That is mathematically impossible if your civilian economy suffered instead of massively growing.
Since Russia's military and MIC employ only around 5% of their population.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Of course... No different from when Trump 1.0 tried to start a soybean alliance against China when Bolsonaro was in power. All that was going to do was take away from the Chinese market monopoly Brazil had without the US. Even pro-Trump Bolsonaro knew that was a bad deal. It just shows you some countries are led by idiots because you know some of them would buy into that trap. Look at what Trump is doing with Venezuela where he gets a cut of what belongs to Venezuelans but he claims they will be making more money with him. Yeah I'm sure Trump thinks monopoly means he can deny or can charge the hell out of anything in order to get what he wants. That's what he was trying to do with advanced semiconductors thinking he could reshape all of China into being a slave of the US.
Russian economic growth is fueled by massive govt debt and spending on the war. It might look rosy now but that massive debt will have to be repaid with either recession or mass inflation and subsequent currency devaluation.
Russia is running on borrowed time with all their debt.
The west still control 60% of world gdp. They can essentially buy their way out of the war for decades. The fund they spend on ukraine is nothing for them.
This is a lopsided battle Russia cannot win by grinding out. They need quick battlefield victory or they have to end the war through negotiations that will be humiliating for them.
Can you not read the information provided? Let's avoid personal feelings and talk about facts here.
If wartime sectors employ only about 5% of the workforce, but overall real wages across the whole economy rise 25%, then the wartime sector alone would need absurd growth to explain itself mathematically.
Meaning each war adjacent worker would need wages to rise by +500% of the original average wage.
Meaning that the average defense worker or soldier would now have 6 times the wage as before the war.
Wtf???
Russia is actually one of the 15 least indebted countries GLOBALLY.
Their debt-to-GDP ratio is actually falling; now it's 18%.
The peace-time US regularly has more than twice the size of their fiscal deficit to GDP ratios.
Hard to think like this when you already have such heavy and rising polarization in the EU and between the US and the EU on this matter.
And it's not like the situation in Western countries societally are getting better. Their governments have 15% approval ratings, Putin 85%.
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Yes and no, Western economies are not tailored for this kind of attrition war, I think Russia out match the entire Western production of artillery by a huge factor, I think by millions. And no Western country is going to disarm itself for Ukraine. So what they are doing is giving Ukraine enough to be always at the defensive in a grinding attrition war while the situation in the country keep deteriorating. As a said before the Russians live next to them and they are not going to go away.
To make things worst the US decide to attack Iran which has caused oil prices to increase benefiting an already resilient Russian economy, my guess the head of the West doesn't care about Ukraine. I understand the small guy against big guy and the injustice of losing territory but in this attrition war I think Ukrainians are in a pretty bad situation. I really hope that the Russians and a less Western controlled independent Ukrainian government come to an agreement in the near future.
The debt to GDP of the Russian government is like 18%
The debt to GDP in Ukraine is already going to 100% and is money going to improductive war that is subtracting from the economy by importing massive among of weapons.
And in the EU is 90%
The Russian economic growth is not as fast as China or India, like 1%, but the EU grown has stalled to below 0.8% and Ukraine has lost 25% of the GDP permanently.
The war needs to come to full stop for Ukraine to ever recover. And the West should put pressure for a full stop of the war.
Ukraine is a not real country to put it mildly. It has attracted attention of Royal Kingdoms thats why it has become a project. They defined glide bombs as replacement of drones.
Glide bombs can finish Ukraine if Russia really wanted to hit them. Drones have tiny warheads and slow speed. it is comical to compare drones with glide bombs. Russia is the leader in Electronic warfare/ Air defense and it experimenting alot against NATO.
Zelensky perfectly understand this Arabic Soft Power. He has to keep sending people to Royal Kingdoms and Trump administration.
US is both backer and mediator in Ukraine conflict since without it Ukraine will collapse sooner . Europe is so weak that Arabs want US in Ukraine conflict. Can Europe remove Royals from Ukraine conflict?
To be fair he can still start a soyboy alliance. Second time the charm???
Manpower is never a concerned for Russia. It want replacement of characterless people in society asap. Ukraine conflict is way of achieving that objective.
Putin has came to conclusion that only full blooded large families should exist in Russia. that Putin conclusion is based off extensive dealings with Royal Kingdoms. They made movie about Oman national symbol Dagger (Khanjar) and than that additional award from Russian muslim administration to Omani ambassador. Oman is doing great in Soft Power management and it this Soft Power Putin is paying the price for not the Ukraine conflict.
