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Sardaukar20

Major
Registered Member
They are fatalistic and welcome death if it means punishing their perceived enemies. The recent election results prove that. China needs to start making contingency plans to rapidly ramp up a possible military option that results in not just 1 million in Tokyo, but 50 to 100X as much. It's a stomach churning decision, but China can not shy away. It is existential.
Yes, fascism is always consensual. Unchecked mob democracy tends to lead to fascism. In the 1920-1930s, Japanese fascism became ever more extreme after the period of "Taisho Democracy".

The Japanese voter population have overwhelmingly supported Taikaichi. This is a recurring pattern. The last time a Japanese PM was this popular was Shinzo Abe. Abe pushed the red line by modifying the Japanese constitution. Takaichi is talking about erasing that red line. And the Japanese public have shown incredible approval for both PMs.

I am of the opinion that Takaichi and her fascist cohorts do have ambitions to remilitarize Japan and pursue nukes. Their nuclear ambition is particularly troubling. It is gonna be incredibly destabilizing. Judging by Japan's pattern of unrepentant fascism, they absolutely cannot be allowed to posses nuclear weapons.

I think China will be have to be very firm with Japan. If Japan really does go for nukes. China will make a formal complain and take serious economic and possible military actions. The US and Israel can bomb Iran to ostensibly prevent Iran from building nukes. So China has an even better justification.

An unrepentant Japan with nukes will inevitably threaten China with nuclear annihilation. Its not only an existential threat, but the historical baggage will make it exceptionally personal. Contrary to some opinions here, Japan already has, or is close to having the delivery vehicles for nukes in the foreseeable future. They are already buying Tomahawks and F-35s. Plus Japan is developing it's own offensive missiles while modifying their constitution to use them.

So if Japan somehow possesses it's own nukes, then its effectively a war. China would need to destroy Japan's nuclear weapons program before it could mass produce warheads. Some of China's nuclear arsenal would also need to be re-targeted specifically for Japan. This means that China would need to ramp up warhead production again, as it still needs to maintain a credible warhead stockpile for the US and India. I doubt that China itself desires this, but this will be 100% Japan's fault. The ball is fully in Japan's court. If they wanna go nuclear, then they cannot blame China for it's inevitable reaction.
 
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Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm unsure what China aims to achieve by overturning the death sentence for a Canadian drug smuggler recently. If this reversal stems from political considerations, I believe it's a misstep that turns China's rule of law into a child subject to manipulation. Unless, of course, the case truly lacked sufficient evidence.
 

Thecore

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm unsure what China aims to achieve by overturning the death sentence for a Canadian drug smuggler recently. If this reversal stems from political considerations, I believe it's a misstep that turns China's rule of law into a child subject to manipulation. Unless, of course, the case truly lacked sufficient evidence.
Canadian media is almost entirely US controlled. If China did stick the needle in this loser's arm, there would be non-stop coverage on how China is barbaric for daring to put down a white drug peddler. People are susceptible to volume of propaganda, even if it causes cognitive dissonance and doesn't make sense at first. It wears people down. Now is a good opportunity for China to drive a wedge, no matter how small or ultimately futile, into the Canada-US relationship because of all the Trump nonsense. I think China choosing to open up criticism on lack of consistency in applying the law and suffering some discrediting in this domain is worth the price and better than the alternative.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
There is not doubt, China has not only have the quantity, they have the diversity of systems and quality of systems to do serious irreparable damage in the region. Even in 90s The US was in doubt about their capabilities to deal with China, especially asymmetrically let alone since 2009. Given China industrial capabilities and size, once the arsenal is depleted, every ship and every nation involve would become just a sitting duck. That is why every stooge war scenario is just counting for two weeks of war at best.
Also US allies in the region are pretty small. So US would have to spend more energy defending them that could have use otherwise.

And what if he was remove because he wanted to take over Taiwan before his retirement at the time that Xi is negotiating with the KMT.
A recent projection by an American dumb tank suggests that the US military will run out of ammunition in the Asia-Pacific region within 60 days, while the PLA will take 120 days. While the conclusion unsurprisingly involves dispersed storage and increase production, doesn't this implicitly assume the PLA can win twice? Win-Win!
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes, fascism is always consensual. Unchecked mob democracy tends to lead to fascism. In the 1920-1930s, Japanese fascism became ever more extreme after the period of "Taisho Democracy".

The Japanese voter population have overwhelmingly supported Taikaichi. This is a recurring pattern. The last time a Japanese PM was this popular was Shinzo Abe. Abe pushed the red line by modifying the Japanese constitution. Takaichi is talking about erasing that red line. And the Japanese public have shown incredible approval for both PMs.

I am of the opinion that Takaichi and her fascist cohorts do have ambitions to remilitarize Japan and pursue nukes. Their nuclear ambition is particularly troubling. It is gonna be incredibly destabilizing. Judging by Japan's pattern of unrepentant fascism, they absolutely cannot be allowed to posses nuclear weapons.

I think China will be have to be very firm with Japan. If Japan really does go for nukes. China will make a formal complain and take serious economic and possible military actions. The US and Israel can bomb Iran to ostensibly prevent Iran from building nukes. So China has an even better justification.

An unrepentant Japan with nukes will inevitably threaten China with nuclear annihilation. Its not only an existential threat, but the historical baggage will definitely amplify the crisis. Contrary to some opinions here, Japan already has, or is close to having the delivery vehicles for nukes in the foreseeable future. They are already buying Tomahawks and F-35s. Plus Japan is developing it's own offensive missiles while modifying their constitution to use them.

So if Japan somehow possesses it's own nukes, then its effectively a war. China would need to destroy Japan's nuclear weapons program before it could mass produce warheads. Some of China's nuclear arsenal would also need to be re-targeted specifically for Japan. This means that China would need to ramp up warhead production again, as it still needs to maintain a credible warhead stockpile for the US and India. I doubt that China itself desires this, but this will be 100% Japan's fault. The ball is fully in Japan's court. If they wanna go nuclear, then they cannot blame China for it's inevitable reaction.
I still don't believe Japan has the capability and balls to acquire independent nuclear delivery vehicles and warheads, it is unacceptable to China and Korea (regardless of North or South). However, inviting the US to deploy B61 bomb is highly probable.

This would be an extremely profitable deal for the US. The withdrawal of conventional forces (few people notice that US forces stationed in Japan and South Korea have already been significantly weakened) inevitably requires the entry of some kind of force, whether it's a local standing force or nuclear forces, both are viable options. A nuclear war between the US and China would almost certainly result in a retaliatory nuclear bombing of Japan, but it's certain that for every additional nuclear bomb that lands on Japan, one less will land on the US mainland.
 
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