Award winning according to libbed up western journalists at Canne that like to promote these movies as celebrations of how much Iranians hate living in Iran and wish western values would come liberate them. The Dalai Lama just won a Grammy for telling his life story despite being a verified boy tongue sucker. That tells you how much legitimacy western awards have.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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A war between superpowers would not be limited to Asia. There can be no victory until one side destroys the other's will and capacity to fight. Not happening because China has no way to project force to the CONUS with tactical assets while the inverse is possible.
The opposite actually. What I propose is significantly more proactive and aggressive than current CPC policy. Crippling the American MIC by depriving them of inputs would basically be declaration of an actual economic war.
Yes, that is what the US would do if they were rational and competent. If I were Washington, I would abandon my global interests to singularly pursue the destruction of China and preserve my position even if it comes down to a nuclear exchange. But the material reality is that the US cannot commit to conventional military action while their stockpiles are depleted by their post-2020 misadventures. This is a vulnerability window that China should twist the knife in. American efforts to rearm and replenish must be frustrated and sabotaged by any means.
I'm preempting the US doing a hail Mary strike before they lose their military advantage. Which is why I am advocating for an accelerated buildup and aggression now to secure the future through initiative of action and deterrence. Explain how that comes across as scared? If anything, other people here have told me that I am too bloodthirsty and will cause WW3.
Nah, some crimes are irredeemable. Execution by anti-aircraft guns.
Blocking rare earths will do nothing but galvanize the entire west against China. Their fight is to maintain white supremacy and they will align with the devil if need be, the Chinese leadership probably understands this and that's why they aren't going full force with rare earth sanctions. As long as the USD is the worlds trade and reserve currency you can forget about stopping the US militarily, it's best to chip away at the dollar's power and let the empire overextend itself.
Totally not true. Nothing prevents China from taking over islands in pacific with their marine and airborne forces. Then China can utilize that as staging area to start bombing CONUS.
You could argue its extremely risky with US navy in the area, but during a full scale war, there is a non zero chance of US navy suffering a catastrophic defeat and no longer being a threat in the pacific at all.
Tactical blunders could happen. And allow China to operate more freely than people imagine.
Moreover, if there is a full war, the likely Chinese response will be total war mobilization of its industry to produce ships and planes. It will only take a few years to have enough assets to fight anywhere in the globe.
China already has the power to project power anywhere in the globe and takeover small countries provided US stays out of it. Yes, it will not be as efficient as US. But they do have enough civillian air and sea lift to pull it off.
The only thing China lacks is strategic intent and desire to take a more muscular role in the world.
They are smart, not incapable
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So if we cannot win this war while the inverse is possible, your solution is to have a war right now? And while China cannot project force yet, it's moving there swiftly, but you want to provoke a war before we have the power projecting capabilities? This should be what the US wants, not China.
It might even be a declaration of an actual hot war... while China hasn't militarily surpassed the US yet. Why do you want it now?
So your plan is to push them to do this now?
You just talked about nuclear exchange. Are their nuclear stockpiles depleted? If you sabotage them now, are you sure they don't have enough left for one massive war? Or is it better to start to sabotage them when they are outnumbered and outclassed by future Chinese weapons? This sabotage trick can't be used twice.
Or are you forcing them to do that hail Mary nuclear war now?
This buildup is commencing, but the sabotage card is too early, less effective now than in the future when China also has a qualitative advantage. Now, the US at least still believes that it has the qualitative advantage and may win with a desperate last gamble if pushed to do to.
Because you keep talking about an uncertain future where the US gets its shit together. I'm not scared of that; I think they'll fuck up even more and even if they don't, we'll still be moving faster than them. I'm happy to push this into the future where I believe our advantage would increase. You want to do this now because you fear that the US will close our advantage out in the future.
It's a very common paradox. Americans who are most aggressive to China are actually the most fearful of a future where China dominates because they have little confidence that the US can match China's achievements. Same with you; because you're scared of the future where China can't move faster than then US, you want to trigger a war now. You have no confidence in China's ability to pull further and further ahead of the US so you are advocating a desperate approach. Usually, it is the country that is desperate and scared of the way things are moving that wants war/conflict; countries that are confident that things are improving don't want war. America is desperate because it feels its advantages all slipping away and turning into disadvantages; you should be more confident in China.
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AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
They say China and rare earths is like Saudi Arabia and the oil market. Obama bragged that the US no longer had to get involved in the mess of the Middle East because of fracking. Then the Saudis increased production of oil sending the price per barrel below $60 which was the line where fracking was unprofitable and that killed a lot of US fracking companies. The threats by the West of finding their own rare earths is empty. They're everywhere so what is China's monopoly? It's the processing and refining to which holds many of the patents. That's means if the West does it, it's going to cost them a hell of a lot more to do it. Rare earths is a health hazardous business. Some on their own are poisonous like heavy metals are. Then you have where many rare earths are byproducts of natural radioactivity in the earth. Processing and refining those from the earth also means separating and concentrating the radioactive elements also. You're going to have pay a high premium on health insurance for those Western workers adding to general hazard pay meaning higher costs of production. China has as much power that Saudi Arabia has with oil. Even though the US produces more domestic oil and doesn't need to consume foreign oil, it's still important strategically to the US because every industrialized country needs it. How can the US control who gets oil that they need if they aren't in the game? Same thing goes with rare earths. The US wants to control the supply as well and who gets them so how is a that the West has an advantage because it's not buying them from China? China can use them.
Yes it's similar elitism to when China stopped recycling Western garbage, they also made threats to China if they didn't continue. Where were the sanctions for China choosing not to take their garbage? So you can see how much an empty threat that the West will find their own rare earth supply when first they need someone else to do the dirty work for them and then if they did it themselves, the cost of their rare earths will make them go bankrupt when all China has to do is flood the market with cheaper rare earths. It's funny how they taunt their own rare earths and yet get angry at the thought of China denying it from them. Garbage... rare earths... the same thing to a bunch of spoiled entitled brats.
Yes it's similar elitism to when China stopped recycling Western garbage, they also made threats to China if they didn't continue. Where were the sanctions for China choosing not to take their garbage? So you can see how much an empty threat that the West will find their own rare earth supply when first they need someone else to do the dirty work for them and then if they did it themselves, the cost of their rare earths will make them go bankrupt when all China has to do is flood the market with cheaper rare earths. It's funny how they taunt their own rare earths and yet get angry at the thought of China denying it from them. Garbage... rare earths... the same thing to a bunch of spoiled entitled brats.
The escalation ladder exists, you know. I specified TACTICAL assets. Dongfeng Express can reach out and touch the CONUS but no H-6 variant is ever going to be striking the American industrial heartland. Fact: the US has more rungs and more granularity on their escalation ladder.
The US cannot fight a conventional war now because they do not have the magazine depth to do so thanks to their reckless depletion in Israel, Yemen and Iran. It will take time to rearm/replenish and China can literally prevent this by starving them of inputs. They cannot wage a war to take these inputs either because they currently lack the resources to survive in China's periphery. Again, 20% of all THAAD interceptors were expended in 12 days against fucking Iran. THIS is the core of my thesis.
China's inability to guarantee MAD is a profound strategic vulnerability, yes. More nukes ASAP. High readiness and launch on warning posture until warhead parity is reached. If the US wants a nuclear exchange, they'll get one and everyone gets reset to zero.
Not necessarily kinetic sabotage but certainly economic sabotage. It'll take about a decade of effort for workforce training programs, permitting, mining, power grid expansions, refining to replace China for just LREE and other critical minerals. HREE isn't even found in large quantities outside of China and Malaysia. Again, can't fight a war if you have no weapons or run out of things to shoot within days. Escalate to nuclear and everybody lose.
Depends entirely on how effectively China can kneecap the US to prevent military action. Accelerated Chinese buildup means more weapons and munitions are needed by the US to successfully prosecute a military campaign against China while rationing what stockpiles they do have. Preventing the US from producing weapons and munitions actually reinforces a positive feedback loop in favor of China.
I never underestimate my opponents. If there is one thing I am afraid of it's that China never gets to reach this future you outlined. The vulnerability is now, before China has reached critical mass.
There is a lot of wishcasting here. Just take a look at sensor density comparisons immediately outside the Second Island Chain. Reach a decisive military advantage in the West Pacific first before contemplating tactical strikes on CONUS.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Thoughout every step of the escalation ladder, it is the same: China is stronger today than yesterday, tomorrow than today. It is therefore China's interest to delay the conflict, potentially until China wins by intimidation.
1. They might have depleted significant ammunition but how are you certain that NATO manufacturing can't pull together a last run of ammo to put up a great fight with China? Even if we win, a great fight encompasses many losses that would have been preventable if we waited to attain victory through outclassing the opponent or victory through intimidation.
2. Your analysis contradicts itself. You say that the enemy is depleted on conventional weapons, so he would be vulnerable but then said you would go nuclear if you were in DC. I agree that the US would choose to go nuclear before accepting defeat and that can only be rectified by China growing our nuclear arsenal until the US recognizes that MAD is in place.
I agree, never had been a point of contest
I think China is now engaging in a slow economic sabotage, sort of boil the frog technique since I hear US sources complaining that China has only partially turned back on the rare earths tap and they're unable to buy enough. I fully support it, but the calculation is that a full choke now invites war at a time when the US is still quite capable of fighting it, especially in the nuclear dimension.
Whether this invites war or capitulation from DC fully depends on China's military capability, and every day, it tilts more towards capitulation, so why now?
Overestimating them and underestimating yourself can be equally as dangerous. Accuracy is where all the value is.
That is a strange fear; I have never doubted it, especially looking at all the achievements coming out of China every day.
Ours is as well; our nuclear forces are not on par with America/Russias; we trailed the US entering the 5th gen fighter race but lead them in the 6th which are yet to go into service, many more examples just like this. Difference is that our vulnerability is closing while there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet to be seen for theirs.
Then let's wait until we reach critical mass for maximal advantage, especially because it does not appear that they can close their vulnerability while we are racing towards critical mass.