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Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
What's the point of even playing by the rules when clearily they are not being enforced properly? I'm actually surprised China has managed to get past most of the legal and compliance bs unlike other nations like Russia. All those years of officials quoting some very obscure rule to convince the emperor to have their ways still works today I guess.
Well isn’t this ironic. The Indians will now be teaching the British to fly their own aircrafts.


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You know I think it's better to be an enemy of India than to be neutral or worse it's "friend". Might be one of the best decisions China ever made.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
China has accumulated a non-insignificant quantity of bitcoin as well as gold. If the US loses dominance "too soon", I believe China would choose to coopt the cryptocurrency environment rather than destroy it or let it die, with some version (not necessarily the official digital yuan) of a digital yuan taking place of current USD backed stablecoins
I always found it funny how everyone just ignores the fact that for the first 10 years of Bitcoin's existence: the period where it's far easier to mine new coins than now, China made up more than half of the world's hash rate, and even after banning trading China continued to allow bitcoin mining for a few years afterwards.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
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In an interview with the South China Morning Post, top mathematician
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said a US professor had recently told him that “the American academic community is basically experiencing havoc like China’s Cultural Revolution”.

A number of Chinese-American researchers interviewed by the Post shared the same impression, describing their careers as “chaotic” and the path forward as looking increasingly uncertain.
...
During China’s Cultural Revolution, intellectuals were branded as enemies of the people – the “stinking ninth class” – under the slogan “the more you know, the more subversive you are”.


The
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the country’s largest research organisation and today the biggest in the world, was reduced during the turmoil from more than 100 institutes to fewer than 10.
Fang Shimin, a China-born researcher-turned-critic now living in the US, wrote on social media that the “new Trump-era Cultural Revolution”, like the Chinese experience, placed political loyalty above expertise.

He cited an October 2 report in the journal Science that said four directors from the National Institutes of Health were collectively fired, stripped of tenure and had their laboratories shut down.

“These academic positions will all have to be filled by laymen loyal to Trump, to faithfully execute the great leader’s instructions to destroy American scientific research,” Fang wrote.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
In aggregate, China's electronics exports in 2024 were ~35% of the global total in exports (measured in US dollars). That still leaves ~65% for the rest of the world. China's market share in the global export of phones, tablets, laptops, TV screens, circuit boards, etc. are all in the range of 30-60%. China is clearly the biggest player in the supply chain, but does not have a monopoly.

Would banning exports of electronics cause a great deal of pain to importing countries? Yes, the supply shortage would instantly double or triple the price of most electronics. But it is not the equivalent of an embargo because there are other countries - from Vietnam to South Korea to India to Mexico to Japan - that could continue to supply the items and who would then gradually increase production. More importantly, China would do tremendous damage to itself in this situation, since the total value of its electronics exports are in the range of $1.2 trillion. That'd be a serious, serious hit to the Chinese economy.

So I'd question the idea that China could truly threaten an electronics embargo. It's only through the rare earths card (ie strictly controlling the export of any product that contains Chinese rare earths) that an electronics embargo becomes plausible and powerful. Against a "critical software" embargo from the US, the best solution remains embracing open source and making a diplomatic & financial push to build a global, parallel software ecosystem. Attempting to impose an electronics embargo (more so than is already imposed via rare earths) would be the wrong move, in my opinion.
You don't understand how supply chain works:

1 - Supply chain only cares about quantity, not USD value, a circuit board or machine won't function regardless if the missing parts are $1 or $1,000 part. It also doesn't matter if you can make 1,000 chips if you need 1 million chips to keep your business afloat, the seller can raise price of each chip by 1,000x so the 1,000 chips has the same "value" as 1 million chips, you'll still be missing the 999k chips and you'll still go out of business. This is eactly what's happening with western automakers right now due to Nexperia.

2 - Parts in machines, or chips in circuit boards can't be arbitarily replaced with any other regardless how much they cost, the fact that Nexperia only makes generic MOSFETS and discrete and yet losing Chinese production is enough to shut down global automakers should give you a clue. The supply chain is CHAIN, where disconnection of a single link is enough to break the entire system, and that link can only be replaced by an exact replica.

3 - China's dominance doesn't come from montary value of what China sells, the entirity of China's RE export doesn't evne register as a a rounding error in China's overall export. China dominance come from the fact that every supply CHAIN on earth passes through China AND China is the only country that has within its border the entire chain from start to finish. It means China can shut down production of anything and everything by cutting a link in the chain that passes through it, regardless if that link is $1 or $1 million. The only way for any country or group of countries to overcome this is to establish the ENTIRE chain outside China and for every part down to ones that cost only 1 cent, and do so at the exact same scale as China currently has. In other words, they need to build another China.

Software, unlike real things, are infinitely reproducable, can be done at zero cost and can be transported instantly, the production of software doesn't require any capital, only intellgent people and time. As it turns out China also has the world's largest collection STEM grads, by FAR, and China has already developed a replacement for every US software that can be shipped to anyone at speed of light. There are no such thing as "critical software", there are only software that one choose to use and software that one did not choose to use.

There is simply no comparison between non-fungable, real physical things and fungiable fictious assets.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
What's the point of even playing by the rules when clearily they are not being enforced properly? I'm actually surprised China has managed to get past most of the legal and compliance bs unlike other nations like Russia. All those years of officials quoting some very obscure rule to convince the emperor to have their ways still works today I guess.

You know I think it's better to be an enemy of India than to be neutral or worse it's "friend". Might be one of the best decisions China ever made.
China is too big to sanction. If IOC kicks out China, it will just create its own rival olympic which most of the global south will likely attend thus splitting olympics.
 
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