plawolf
Lieutenant General
It's much more about Chinese willingness to get into a confrontation with the west in a region that's not favourable to China. If China could bleed the west by arming Venezuela or Iran, it would be stupid not to do so and allow them to fall to the Western camp, from a purely military perspective. Engaging in a proxy war with the US today in Venezuela would just be very costly for the Chinese exporters that still depend on Western markets. Maybe this will change as non western markets develop
But the argument that it's up to the middle and small powers to seek favour from the superpower doesn't make sense. If a superpower doesn't support countries on its own side, then it's simply not going to have any allies.
And how would turning Iran or Venezuela into China’s Ukraine where it’s a black hole for weapons and money help China?
Russia supported Assad to the hilt, as much as they can, even to the detriment of battlefield outcomes in Ukraine, how has that investment paid off?
Also, just because America toppled a leader doesn’t make there the eternal masters of the land and people. Just look to Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is the fundamental difference in Chinese and western thinking. China is far more flexible and pragmatic in its strategic assessment and thinking.
China will not provide support just because you say you are against someone. First you need to prove that you can actually make good use of that support.
What good is sending advanced weapons to Iran only for tailors to leak their location for the Israelis to bomb? You cannot turn a bad investment into a good one by dumping more and more money into it. All you will be doing is throwing away good money after the bad.
And as I touched upon earlier. Just because America invaded somewhere and toppled its leader doesn’t mean America gets to keep what it has killed. If the incumbent regime is worthless and easily toppled, it’s far better for China to wait for organic resistance movements to form against the occupation and see who is actually combat effective and partner with them.
Even where the local population is docile and doesn’t actively resist, what usually happens is that China just comes in and ask them if they like money. If they do, then China will just trade with them in China’s preferred win-win way, and before long America’s guy in charge is now just as much as China’s guy. China is perfectly happy for them to remain loyal to both superpowers, but if America forces them to choose, they will usually choose America openly for show, but secretly choose China for real. Not only is China’s method way cheaper than military action, it’s far more effective and China makes a profit to boot.
Yes, there will come a time when China needs to show its teeth and choose to stand and fight. But Iran and Venezuela are not the time or place.