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iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
They don't need education. They will just pay Chinese existing engineers working in rare earth companies 500K-1 million dollar salaries and those engineers will happily move to US or other countries. Their biggest advantage is extreme wealth.

They also don't need to worry about being efficient about their rare earth production either. They will just pay 10-20 times the current cost if needed to achieve non-chinese production.
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Yeah, about that, don't you think US first need to convince Chinese American engineers not to move to China first?
I don't know where you live but there are not many people in the world who would "happily move to" El Salvador US right now.
Are you sure US will still have "extreme wealth" if that wealth can't buy anything, things like RE?

But yes they can very much pay 10-20 times the current cost to achieve non-Chinese production, might be a bit difficult selling cars that cost 10x or going to war with China with 1/10th (in practice much less) production.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

New Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
They don't need education. They will just pay Chinese existing engineers working in rare earth companies 500K-1 million dollar salaries and those engineers will happily move to US or other countries. Their biggest advantage is extreme wealth.

They also don't need to worry about being efficient about their rare earth production either. They will just pay 10-20 times the current cost if needed to achieve non-chinese production.
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This is the crux of the matter. Capitalism won't tolerate such high production costs; all they want is more profit!
Even if they poached every engineer from China, the West would still have to rebuild its industrial chain from scratch. And even if they did succeed, it still wouldn't generate enough profit. Therefore, from the outset, no one would genuinely want to change the status quo.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
They don't need education. They will just pay Chinese existing engineers working in rare earth companies 500K-1 million dollar salaries and those engineers will happily move to US or other countries. Their biggest advantage is extreme wealth.

They also don't need to worry about being efficient about their rare earth production either. They will just pay 10-20 times the current cost if needed to achieve non-chinese production.
Click to expand...
you again missed the actual news..

In addition to the aforementioned improvements to rare earth item controls, the Technical Bulletin, based on considerations of national security and interests under Article 12 of the Export Control Act, further restricts Chinese citizens, legal persons, and unincorporated organizations from participating in overseas rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling (hereinafter referred to as "rare earth manufacturing activities"), expanding the scope of controls to include goods, technologies, or services not included in the control list. It also explicitly includes any substantial assistance or support provided by Chinese citizens, legal persons, and unincorporated organizations to such overseas activities.

all Chinese entities and nationals are prohibited to work on any RE related project outside China. i seriously doubt US could pull this off now. they still can do this but it will be damn hard.
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
sunnymaxi said:
you again missed the actual news..

In addition to the aforementioned improvements to rare earth item controls, the Technical Bulletin, based on considerations of national security and interests under Article 12 of the Export Control Act, further restricts Chinese citizens, legal persons, and unincorporated organizations from participating in overseas rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling (hereinafter referred to as "rare earth manufacturing activities"), expanding the scope of controls to include goods, technologies, or services not included in the control list. It also explicitly includes any substantial assistance or support provided by Chinese citizens, legal persons, and unincorporated organizations to such overseas activities.

all Chinese entities and nationals are prohibited to work on any RE related project outside China. i seriously doubt US could pull this off now. they still can do this but it will be damn hard.
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You do know that's a completely ineffective order. Plenty of Chinese will give up their Chinese citizenship in a heartbeat and accept US citizenship even if they have to "Break the law", including conducting IP theft on rare earth. US just has to pay them sizable amount. US is already paying LLM coders million dollar salaries, they can easily pay more for something so important to national security as rare earth.

Rare earth engineers in China are probably getting less than 50K per year in China. So, if they get a million dollar salary, they will happily conduct massive IP theft and just leave without a trace, never to come back.

This is the difference between China and the west. Even if China wants to pay an American a fortune, they will not give up their US citizenship and break American law. They will never adopt China as their permanent home. But because US has been a rich country for many decades and also the immigrant culture, other countries citizens find it extremely attractive to give up their existing life and move to US.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You do know that's a completely ineffective order. Plenty of Chinese will give up their Chinese citizenship in a heartbeat and accept US citizenship even if they have to "Break the law", including conducting IP theft on rare earth. US just has to pay them sizable amount. US is already paying LLM coders million dollar salaries, they can easily pay more for something so important to national security as rare earth.

Rare earth engineers in China are probably getting less than 50K per year in China. So, if they get a million dollar salary, they will happily conduct massive IP theft and just leave without a trace, never to come back.

This is the difference between China and the west. Even if China wants to pay an American a fortune, they will not give up their US citizenship and break American law. They will never adopt China as their permanent home. But because US has been a rich country for many decades and also the immigrant culture, other countries citizens find it extremely attractive to give up their existing life and move to US.
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agreed with you on salary part and Chinese liberals. they would easily choose US.. but

where is the supply chain ?

where is the infrastructure ?

where is the electricity ? RE is very energy hungry sector. and don't forget US already struggling in this sector. Ai too required massive energy.

you cannot build real mfg capacity with just LLM and Ai.

there is a huge number of suppliers, process knowledge and decades of research. how could USA overcome this in just few years ??

as of now, there is not a major US university to offer RE complete degree. how could you solve entire process with just bunch of Chinese talent.
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Rare earth elements comprise 17 metallic elements with extremely similar chemical properties. Isolating them to high purity requires hundreds of chemical steps, including extraction, washing, and precipitation. After decades of technological research and development, China has established a global leadership position in extractant research and process design. Currently, Chinese companies can consistently achieve 6N (99.9999%) high-purity extraction, while most other countries still struggle with 2N-3N levels. Furthermore, Chinese companies have accumulated extensive experience in the comprehensive utilization of associated and low-grade ores. Through process optimization, they have achieved both high efficiency and low costs.
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China has already achieved 6N in processing and refining for rare earth metals. Most countries are in 2N to 3N realm, so there is a big difference between the re magnet that China can produce vs others.

i m not saying, US cannot do this.. but need enormous efforts and time. its not a 5 years game.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

New Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You do know that's a completely ineffective order. Plenty of Chinese will give up their Chinese citizenship in a heartbeat and accept US citizenship even if they have to "Break the law", including conducting IP theft on rare earth. US just has to pay them sizable amount. US is already paying LLM coders million dollar salaries, they can easily pay more for something so important to national security as rare earth.

Rare earth engineers in China are probably getting less than 50K per year in China. So, if they get a million dollar salary, they will happily conduct massive IP theft and just leave without a trace, never to come back.

This is the difference between China and the west. Even if China wants to pay an American a fortune, they will not give up their US citizenship and break American law. They will never adopt China as their permanent home. But because US has been a rich country for many decades and also the immigrant culture, other countries citizens find it extremely attractive to give up their existing life and move to US.
Click to expand...
Even if the entire rare earth refining industry chain were moved to the United States, I guarantee it would be bankrupt within two years!
The entire industry chain is a multi-trillion dollar industry, and its annual rare earth output is worth less than $30 billion. Who do you think would invest in this?
Do you think you can convince Wall Street to invest in this?
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
They don't need education. They will just pay Chinese existing engineers working in rare earth companies 500K-1 million dollar salaries and those engineers will happily move to US or other countries. Their biggest advantage is extreme wealth.

They also don't need to worry about being efficient about their rare earth production either. They will just pay 10-20 times the current cost if needed to achieve non-chinese production.
Click to expand...
You know if that strategy worked why don't they offer, IDK, vice minister level officials that money to just collapse China directly?

Vice ministers make a shit ton less than $1M per year even including benefits while wielding far more power and knowledge than an engineer.
 
burritocannon

burritocannon

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You do know that's a completely ineffective order. Plenty of Chinese will give up their Chinese citizenship in a heartbeat and accept US citizenship even if they have to "Break the law", including conducting IP theft on rare earth. US just has to pay them sizable amount. US is already paying LLM coders million dollar salaries, they can easily pay more for something so important to national security as rare earth.

Rare earth engineers in China are probably getting less than 50K per year in China. So, if they get a million dollar salary, they will happily conduct massive IP theft and just leave without a trace, never to come back.

This is the difference between China and the west. Even if China wants to pay an American a fortune, they will not give up their US citizenship and break American law. They will never adopt China as their permanent home. But because US has been a rich country for many decades and also the immigrant culture, other countries citizens find it extremely attractive to give up their existing life and move to US.
Click to expand...
so you're the one that advised the cia for its recruitment ad weren't you, you cheeky wanker you!
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You do know that's a completely ineffective order. Plenty of Chinese will give up their Chinese citizenship in a heartbeat and accept US citizenship even if they have to "Break the law", including conducting IP theft on rare earth. US just has to pay them sizable amount. US is already paying LLM coders million dollar salaries, they can easily pay more for something so important to national security as rare earth.

Rare earth engineers in China are probably getting less than 50K per year in China. So, if they get a million dollar salary, they will happily conduct massive IP theft and just leave without a trace, never to come back.

This is the difference between China and the west. Even if China wants to pay an American a fortune, they will not give up their US citizenship and break American law. They will never adopt China as their permanent home. But because US has been a rich country for many decades and also the immigrant culture, other countries citizens find it extremely attractive to give up their existing life and move to US.
Click to expand...
The penalty for breaking this law is not loss of citizenship. It is prison with hard labor. Even a single reply to a communication from a foreign recruiter can be construed as violating the law.

There's also this question: who is paying this money? Private companies can't tolerate a $10M sink from just 10 engineers who sit in an office. They still need to pay laborers, site engineers, electricity, gas, vehicle, etc costs. The engineers 100% can't start production immediately, they need to review the existing site, equipment and processes. And they won't work without being paid.

Government needs to explain to conservative whites in the federal bureaucracy, from blue blood 100% Anglo Mayflower WW2 veteran families, why a China man is being paid millions more than them, from taxpayer funds, while doing "Chinese science" and not producing anything. And we know they won't be producing anything immediately because even getting the permits takes months, let alone construction.
 
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