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Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
It is still dumb why China should accept its companies to be treated this way vs say Boeing. As usual the West is all about projection. It is them who do military-civil fusion in the first place.
It’s a consequence of financial weakness, at the end of the day. Chinese companies wanting to avoid sanctions is because most of the world still uses the dollar and the purchasing power of the West far exceeds China’s in nominal terms, due to the strength of the dollar.

This is a double edged sword (because it makes US labor extremely expensive and thus not competitive), but it is the super power of the US.
 

BasilicaLew

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nope. DJI refused to work with PLA

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这次我组织的考察团中,既有地方的老同志,也有空军的一些现役将领。有一家著名的公司,该公司有相当比例的销售额和更大比例的利润来源于美西方市场。这两年他们受到了美国联邦政府制裁,市场空间明显受限。在前期沟通中,他们坦率地向我们表态,可以接待地方的老同志,但是恕不接待现役军人。原因在于,最近他们正在对美国政府有关部门发起诉讼,要求解除涉军指控和相关制裁。此时正是官司的关键时期,很大可能已经派了人潜伏到该公司搜集证据、罗织罪名。
But I thought China Communist and the companies need to do everything the government says!!!! Nicky told me so!!!
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have been watching this guy. US is planning to do a multi-front war including Iran. South America and Russia. If US attacks Russia with long range missiles from Ukraine, what is China going to do? Is China going to supply missiles to Russia at this point?

These three commentators still think the main focus is China despite reports saying that US forces are moving away from China.

 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
If the US supplies long range missiles to Ukraine breaking existing treaties then Russia can do the same. Just think about it. The Kalibr is way more modern than the Tomahawk. It has twice the range in the land attack version and has supersonic terminal velocity in some versions. The Tomahawk is subsonic. The Kalibr can also act as an anti-shipping missile. As for the Tomahawk they are thinking about it.

Because of treaties Russia nerfs its export Kalibr. What if they un-nerf it?

Russia produces more Kalibr missiles than the US produces Tomahawks.

Kalibr-M can reach half the US mainland from Venezuela. You can probably hit the whole US from Cuba.

Kalibr can be put inside standard container units.

1000001320.jpg

The US government should really think about this.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
If the US supplies long range missiles to Ukraine breaking existing treaties then Russia can do the same. Just think about it. The Kalibr is way more modern than the Tomahawk. It has twice the range in the land attack version and has supersonic terminal velocity in some versions. The Tomahawk is subsonic. The Kalibr can also act as an anti-shipping missile. As for the Tomahawk they are thinking about it.

Because of treaties Russia nerfs its export Kalibr. What if they un-nerf it?

Russia produces more Kalibr missiles than the US produces Tomahawks.

Kalibr-M can reach half the US mainland from Venezuela. You can probably hit the whole US from Cuba.

Kalibr can be put inside standard container units.

The US government should really think about this.
The US has already broken the export treaty when it sold Tomahawks to Japan.
 

victoon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Interesting article, but a lot of the content is misleading.

The authors conveniently forgot about Japan-US Semiconductor Agreement, "voluntary" restraints on Japanese car exports to the US, and the lengths US went through to prop up Intel and AMD against Japanese competitors.

In what regards exactly? Chinese state-owned enterprise manage critical sectors including infrastructure and defense. They aren't the prettiest sectors, but the performance of SOEs still vastly outperform their private US counterparts in terms of innovation. Where are the US technological equivalent for:

- Ultra high voltage transmission, especially over long distances?
- Automated grid control/integration?
- High speed rail/maglev?
- LNG tanker production, or civil/military shipbuilding capacity in general?
- 6th generation fighter and unmanned air superiority drones?

Even in automotive industry, where Chinese state-owned enterprises are often criticized, they are still much more innovative than their private US counterparts. Does any US manufacturer offer a car with semi-solid state battery, let alone one for $14K?

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I do agree with the premise of the article that Japan has a more cooperative, cartel type environment through the various Keiretsu, which hampers innovation compared to more cut-throat environment as in the case of US and China. But in my opinion it's the US, not China that's losing that edge.
If you step back to look at the big picture, it's the US that created the era-defining technological innovations post-WWII and reaped most of the benefits of such innovations. Japan has a record of lacking such innovations. What Japan had was process innovations and perfectionism on mature product categories that moved slowly, such as the ICE auto industry. Most people think the Plaza Accord accelerated, rather than caused, Japan's decline.

China's proven strength is now called "fast follower." The US is worried that China can catch up so quickly that the US can no longer profit from its own innovations. Articles like this are not meant to spell out the solutions, and certainly not every sentence is accurate. But the idea of thinking about national characteristics and strength is very useful. To be clear, each of the three countries has done scaling, process innovation, and technological innovation. But the general strength of each country so far is pretty clear.

My view of China's SOEs is that they are mostly process innovators. I can't imagine the next big thing will come out of SOE. But my defense for China's SOEs is that their role is building the tech and economic foundation for China. I believe it gives Chinese innovators an edge over US innovators.

I have faith that more era-defining innovations will come out of China in the next 10 years, and my money is entirely on Chinese companies. That said, my bets are mostly on Chinese culture because I think it's even more underestimated than Chinese tech.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
For now.



The problem is that China didn't stay in it's designated (by the west) place.

The ideal situation for a western brand is that their items get manufactured in China, gets their Western Brand plastered on it and then sold in their own western domestic market for outrageous margins - A margin of 6 is quite common in stationery, ie. for every $1 ex-factory, the item retails at $6 in their home market because comparatively, a similar product will cost about $3 domestically and retail also at $6.

What the west didn't quite forsee is that in feeding the beast, the Chinese manufacturers climbed the value chain. From ODM to OEM to f-it, I'm gonna sell my own brand. I started doing business with Chinese manufacturers about 20 years ago and it was quite the chore to convince them to sell their own brand overseas, 99% of exhibitors at the Canton Fair only wanted to do 贴牌 business, literally "stick your brand" business. If I had to generalise, these manufacturers did not have the confidence that a Chinese brand will be accepted in a foreign market and it was too much effort to make it so when the 贴牌 was so easy and so good. Over time, that attitude has changed and we now see the likes of BYD, DJI, etc. being an absolute global giant with a fully China made and branded identity.

What has caused the house of cards to totally collapse for the western capitalist is that it is not only in the top end that Chinese brands (BYD, DJI, etc) are achieving global parity but especially in the bread and butter "brandless" products being pushed through Amazon, AliExpress, Shein, Temu, et. al. Note that when these platforms push China products directly into western market, they are often being sold at China+ prices which will be about $3 and this is where the lunch is being taken from almost every single western manufacturer and brand owner and hence the panic. The fat days of 6-fold mark ups are gone and the lack of ability to even be competitive with home grown variants is the nightmare they are starting to realise. They are rightfully shitting bricks at being economically beholden to China.
hence why earlier this year, brands were having haemorrhoids over Chinese OEMs marketing to western consumers directly via TikTok


I’m starting to see a resemblance between Americans and their Anglo wannabe allies and Indian twitter posters.
If the US supplies long range missiles to Ukraine breaking existing treaties then Russia can do the same. Just think about it. The Kalibr is way more modern than the Tomahawk. It has twice the range in the land attack version and has supersonic terminal velocity in some versions. The Tomahawk is subsonic. The Kalibr can also act as an anti-shipping missile. As for the Tomahawk they are thinking about it.

Because of treaties Russia nerfs its export Kalibr. What if they un-nerf it?

Russia produces more Kalibr missiles than the US produces Tomahawks.

Kalibr-M can reach half the US mainland from Venezuela. You can probably hit the whole US from Cuba.

Kalibr can be put inside standard container units.

View attachment 161966

The US government should really think about this.
The US prefers to use proxies like Ukraine; the only opportunity where Russia and China can strike the US mainland short of direct war is the anticipated US “special military operation” with Venezuela.
 

jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have been watching this guy. US is planning to do a multi-front war including Iran. South America and Russia. If US attacks Russia with long range missiles from Ukraine, what is China going to do? Is China going to supply missiles to Russia at this point?

These three commentators still think the main focus is China despite reports saying that US forces are moving away from China.

The USA thinks right now they can bum rush those other three nations before fully focusing on China, but they assume that China is doing completely nothing which is not true. China is doing right now what they other three cannot do, economically screw the USA up whilst ensuring that Russia and Iran amongst other stay afloat by not obeying any of the western sanctions on any of those nations. It’s the reason why the G7 right right now is in a state of economic hardship right now with the potential of a real collapse. Think about it, if the USA is doing good right now, then the farmers in the USA wouldn’t be crying about bankruptcy along with the state of the USA economy being in such a bad state that Trump simply cannot fix the problems it has right now no matter what he does, nor would he try to shut down the US government to force cuts that will demolish the country even further. One of the major reasons is quite simple, China isn’t playing ball with the USA anymore
 
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